Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

No real reads. There have been 10 people left for quit a while, so we are 5 handed and playing hand for hand. This is the first resistance anyone has had on a steal.

PokerStars Game #2357780571: Tournament #11248286, Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIII (30000/60000) - 2005/08/17 - 04:18:46 (ET)
Table '11248286 28' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: straytoaster (632726 in chips)
Seat 4: mossified84 (284070 in chips)
Seat 5: JJProdigy (1106946 in chips)
Seat 6: 9_balla (668788 in chips)
Seat 7: t soprano (1174269 in chips)
straytoaster: posts the ante 3000
mossified84: posts the ante 3000
JJProdigy: posts the ante 3000
9_balla: posts the ante 3000
t soprano: posts the ante 3000
mossified84: posts small blind 30000
JJProdigy: posts big blind 60000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JJProdigy [Kh Ah]
9_balla: folds
t soprano: raises 120000 to 180000
straytoaster: raises 449726 to 629726 and is all-in
mossified84: folds
JJProdigy has timed out
JJProdigy: folds

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

looks good. no point in calling and hoping for a coinflip. keep opening pots and stay away from ones that have been 3-bet to you.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

I don't have this fold in me as I think the button can/should be moving with many dominated hands vs this particular opener.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

i honestly cant fold this, but ur much better than me

your folding this because t soprano still has to act again and has you covered, right? or is it because you think the 3bettor has a legit hand?

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
your folding this because t soprano still has to act again and has you covered, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

I am folding because I don't have a time bank to think (used it else where, I guess)

But essentially, yes.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your folding this because t soprano still has to act again and has you covered, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
Pretty sure t_soprano is folding everything through jacks here if JJ pushes...

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

t soprano is making this raise with a range of about two cards and the button is pushing with a fair range - but, he's pushing knowing that soprano will call almost anything getting over 2:1. I'm giving him credit for a real hand and I think that most often, you are a coinflip of some kind. Given that soprano is probably gonna overcall with tens or better (I never gave him much credit for tightness, am I wrong?) I think this may be a fold, but it's very very close. If you even had him covered by 100K I'd overpush. Oh well.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

When I first read this, I thought you put in the 18K. Given that it's someone else, who has you covered and is yet to act, I fold here too. Hope the tourney worked out well.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your folding this because t soprano still has to act again and has you covered, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
Pretty sure t_soprano is folding everything through jacks here if JJ pushes...

[/ QUOTE ]

even getting a lil over 2:1 on his money?
yea, i can buy that.

i also think its a fold because steals have met little resistance thus far, as JJ said, so id wait for a better spot. still have plenty of chips

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

With only 30 seconds to evaluate this, I think you have to fold because:

1. You figure that you are only slightly ahead of the reraiser's range given how tight the table has been playing.
2. The big stack's presence sweetens the pot enough to justify gambling with the reraiser but doesn't sweeten it enough to go broke with your own big stack in 10th when he (the other big stack) does have a real hand.

Given more time to run the numbers, it might be a push, but I think it's going to be slightly +$EV at best.

Later,
Che

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

i think you're significantly ahead of the 3bettor's range, but the presence of the opener is what makes this tough.

i would be inclined to call.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

excellent fold I reckon. You have plenty of chips to keep nicking people's blinds at least once a round and not take on hands like this. I hate having an open raiser that covers me sitting behind. Although I haven't actually made it this far the big 10r since the new blind levels were introduced so am not sure how tight it gets at the end with them in. When they used to stop at 20-40k (now that i've written that i'm not sure its right???) then over 1m chips always made me feel pretty comfortable...

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

My guess would be that one of them has a pair, while you dominate the other one(most likely the reraiser) but are gonna stuck 1 more of your outs against the pair. With a nice stack, I think I would make the tough fold and pick up all the little pots in future opportunities.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think you're significantly ahead of the 3bettor's range, but the presence of the opener is what makes this tough.

i would be inclined to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm leaning towards a call/repush here as well. soprano is opening a lot of hands here, as is the 3-bettor (although I think we can assume he has a hand, but quite a few we dominate.)

w/ the blinds, antes, and soprano's "dead" money in the pot, we have a nice overlay and I think we're ahead of the 3-bettor. While I'm ignoring Soprano's hand here, the odds he has AA/KK/QQ are pretty low and he knows JJ's over the top push means signifigant strength.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

If you were SB, what hands would you jam to t-sporano's button raise? My guess is a pretty wide range (compared to your usual re-raising standards vs the button)
, and one that AK has strangled. I don't know your read on the SB play, but I would think that AK has his range in trouble often enough to make this a call.


I cant help likening this hand to the WPT hand where Hellmuth raised the button, Antonio jammed from the SB with Q5, and the BB folded AQ.

In your AK case, im calling here a lot lot more times then folding

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think you're significantly ahead of the 3bettor's range, but the presence of the opener is what makes this tough.

i would be inclined to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm leaning towards a call/repush here as well. soprano is opening a lot of hands here, as is the 3-bettor (although I think we can assume he has a hand, but quite a few we dominate.)

w/ the blinds, antes, and soprano's "dead" money in the pot, we have a nice overlay and I think we're ahead of the 3-bettor. While I'm ignoring Soprano's hand here, the odds he has AA/KK/QQ are pretty low and he knows JJ's over the top push means signifigant strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im re-pushing this for most of the same reasons that were just stated. There is dead money from someone that could be opening with anything, and an over the top push will knock out the opening raisor unless he has what ... QQ+ ? right around there.

Im pushing.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

Hero pushes.

If t_soprano folds hero gets 1.6:1 in the pot and its an easy push.

t_soprano's range has to be huge here to 3XBB with 3 players left act. I think it would be difficult for t_soprano not to respect hero's push as one of the best few hands even if he was getting 2.2:1.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

I would also push here. The reraiser only has 10BBs and would probably do this with AJ and AQ enough to make this profitable, plus there is plenty of dead money in the pot. Factor that in with the fact that you are going for the win and can take a coinflip for about 900k, I would push. If you win you'll have 200k, if you lose you'll have 50k. I would repush here and not worry about Tsoprano.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

I remember this hand when it came up and wondered what was going on with the time out. Boy, tough situation. Such a pretty hand 5-handed.

Without getting into a lot of math, I'm leaning toward a fold here as well. I think it is more likely you are in a coin flip situation as I'm not even sure he would be pushing here with a hand like AQ. Given that you've got a pretty comfortable stack and are clearly outplaying the rest of the field I think you can lay it down.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

I think I like a push here. If t soprano wasn't on a normal blindsteal he may change it up by limping or trying something different, he could literally have almost any two with a face card. Pushing gets his chips dead and I really don't see the button having KK or AA here.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would repush here and not worry about Tsoprano.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?
you can't just NOT worry about the guy who still has to act AND has you covered. the fact that this guy has yet to act is what makes this hand interesting. if this was heads up with JJ and the other guy, this is a pretty easy call.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

I would push, AKs is sooo pretty.

If tony has AA, you will get 4th anyway because you have a bigger stack, and if tony folds, his preflop raise, and the blinds and antes make taking a flip pretty nice because if you lose you still have a good ammount to make a comeback with and if you win, you have 1st (2nd the way you run heads up) on lock [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Plus the reraiser might have AJ-AQ, and AKo so you might be freerolling for that flush or have him in a dominated spot.

And for the people that said to call, I think its horrible, your only options are to repush or fold.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

This isn't the FT. It is the final 2 tables. 10 are left.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

I would have to consider a couple of things b4 I decide what to do. First, how important is it to make the final table -- especially financially? You have enough chips to make it there w/o even playing a hand for a few rotations.
If finishing 10th is no big deal then push. If finishing 10th would be real disappointing to you then fold. AK suited or not is a drawing hand. All you really have are two top cards. Any pair is favored over you & if they don't share one of your cards, then it is toss up. More people have been knocked out of tournaments w/AK than any other hand in my humble opinion. I just think that you are "gambling" by playing this hand 'cause you will not be a favorite often b4 the flop especially since I think the reraiser has a pocket pair. Of course if you feel positively that soprano will fold then the "race" is worth the push, but if you think it's 60/40 fold to call for soprano then I would fold & pick a better opportunity.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

Josh,

It's suited. Repush.


Oh yeah and everyone saying worry about T Soprano is nuts. He's only coming w/ 3 hands here, and maybe only 2. And unless the guy is retarded tight who 3 bet, you have him crushed a good amount because I'd imagine that T is opening a bunch of pots having over 1 mil.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

good god people...you have to push here. it's 5 handed. I'm sure TSoprano's range here is very large. Given that, straytoaster's range is at least relatively large. It certainly includes hands like AQ and AJ (AT?). Let's say TSoprano is raising like half the time preflop when it's folded to him (reasonable). That means that he's raising w/ probably something like 35-40% of the deck. Given that, what do you do in the button's spot w/ a hand like ATs or KQ, or 88? AQ is an instapush, right? If that's even close to the case, then you can't lay down AKs here. You have to push and hope TS doesn't happen to have one of the 4 hands that he can overcall with. Hell, in his spot, I would seriously deplete my timebank w/ Jacks.

He's probably folding there 90+% of the time we push.

Tarzan, baby.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would push, AKs is sooo pretty.

[/ QUOTE ]

its close...why its a good post hand. I feel for OP.

[ QUOTE ]

If tony has AA, you will get 4th anyway because you have a bigger stack,

[/ QUOTE ]

No...there are 10 left.

[ QUOTE ]

And for the people that said to call, I think its horrible, your only options are to repush or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed...though, dont think a push or a call are going to matter much to T...if he's calling your call, he'd call you push too...there's maybe a .1% differnetial in outcome between the two moves IMO...but this point is pretty moot.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

Anybody have the payouts for 1-10?

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
good god people...you have to push here. it's 5 handed. I'm sure TSoprano's range here is very large. Given that, straytoaster's range is at least relatively large. It certainly includes hands like AQ and AJ (AT?). Let's say TSoprano is raising like half the time preflop when it's folded to him (reasonable). That means that he's raising w/ probably something like 35-40% of the deck. Given that, what do you do in the button's spot w/ a hand like ATs or KQ, or 88? AQ is an instapush, right? If that's even close to the case, then you can't lay down AKs here. You have to push and hope TS doesn't happen to have one of the 4 hands that he can overcall with. Hell, in his spot, I would seriously deplete my timebank w/ Jacks.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think if soprano is raising liberally, then we can widen SBs reraising range significantly, even to hands like KQs and A9-- or much worse. He knows soprano is getting a decent price, but he still isnt folding those hands I dont think.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

On a side note, Tso has been playing very tight and rarely opening any pots.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, Tso has been playing very tight and rarely opening any pots.

[/ QUOTE ]
So would you say a range of any Ace, any pair, any 2 broadway is about right?

What do you think the other guy is pushing with? I'm thinking AA-88, AK-AQ since tsop hasn't been playing too aggressively.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

Smells too much like a coin-flip to me rather then a possible dominated hand either way (AA,KK or AQ,AJ).

But I don't know if I'm good enough to fold after 5 or 6 hours of play.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

HAND ASSUMPTIONS

UTG+1 (tsoprano) is raising with any Ace, any pair, any 2 broadway. That's tighter than it should be at this stage but according to TTIU he's playing particularly tight. This represents 298 of the possible 1,326 hands (taking into account the fact that our hero has AK).

UTG+2 is re-raising with AA-88, AK-AQ. Again, if UTG+1 was playing more aggressively than this should be a greater range .

If our hero folds, UTG+1 is getting 2 to 1 odds and will call with AA-77, AK-AT, KQ-KT, QJ. This range is about 1.5 to 1 against AA-88, AK-AQ making the call pretty favorable. This is a total of 139 hands so UTG+1 will call in this situation 47% of the time.

If our hero calls, UTG+1 will only call if he has AA-KK. There are only 6 possible combinations for him to have AA-KK so he would only call in this situation 2% of the time.

PRIZE MONEY

I don't have the actual numbers from this tourney but we can use the numbers from tonight's event as an approximation. All players are guaranteed 10th place money of $412. They are playing for the remaining pool of $31,562. Once the next person is eliminated all remaining players are guaranteed $772 ($360 more than they are guaranteed now) and are playing for an additional pool of $28,322.

CHIPS IN PLAY

Again, I don't have the actual numbers and this could make a slight difference but I don't think it will be too significant. Tonight there are 6,596,000 total chips in play. Tonight's prize pool is almost identical to the tournament we're looking at so I'm comfortable using this number.

IF HERO FOLDS

His Stack: 1,016,946 (15.4% of total chips)

UTG+1 Calls 47% of the time. He will win 40% of the time. If UTG+1 wins, UTG+2 is eliminated. All players are now guaranteed 9th place money. Our hero's equity is .154*28,322+360=$4,722. If UTG+1 loses, our hero's equity is .154*31,562=$4,861. The total equity for our hero if UTG+1 calls is $4,805 (4722*.40 + 4861*.60).

UTG+1 Folds 53% of the time. Our hero's equity is $4,861 (it makes no difference if UTG+1 calls and loses or just folds, only whether or not UTG+2 is still in the game).

The total equity of folding is $4,835 (4805*.47 + 4861*.53).

IF HERO CALLS

UTG+1 will fold 98% of the time. Hero will win against UTG+2 50% of the time. If Hero wins, UTG+2 is eliminated and the Hero wins 851,726 and has a stack of 1,958,672 (29.7%). If Hero loses, his stack is reduced to 474,220 (7.2%).

Hero's equity if he wins is .297*28,322 + 360 = $8,772. Hero's equity if he loses is .072*31,562 = $2,272. Total equity when Hero calls and UTG+1 folds is $5,522 (8772*.5 + 2272*.5).

For the 2% of the time that UTG+1 has AA-KK, I'm going to ignore since it 2AM. But I did want to crunch these numbers since it's a good example.

In summary:

$EV of Folding = $4,835
$EV of Calling = $5,522

Calling is clearly superior to folding based on the assumptions above.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

Here's the important lesson from my analysis at least in terms of what I take from it in a practical sense. If we're sitting at a table (online or live) and get into a tough situation, there's no way we can do this detailed of an analysis in the short amount of time we have to decide. We have to draw on our experiences and trust our intuition.

So if I'm on a table facing this type of a decision hopefully I can remember this hand and the conclusion and act accordingly. I'm not going to remember all of the details but here are the important facts the way I see them:

1) We're at a final table bubble where the prize money will be going up substantially from here on out;
2) We have a hand that looks to be about 50/50 versus the range we put our primary villain on;
3) There is a fair amount of dead money in the pot;
4) Even if we lose, we still have enough chips to take a few stabs at the pot and get right back into the game.

Now we gave our opponents a pretty tight range and opening it up will no doubt benefit us even further. So in some respect this is almost a worse case scenario and against normal standards this is even a more favorable situation.

Lloyd, why do...
 

...you insult our intelligence with such surface-level analysis? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I do have a serious question, actually.

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG+1 wins, UTG+2 is eliminated. All players are now guaranteed 9th place money. Our hero's equity is .154*28,322+360=$4,722. If UTG+1 loses, our hero's equity is .154*31,562=$4,861.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure hero's equity *decreases* when a player is eliminated? This result flies in the face of the "survival has value" theory which assumes your chips increase in value when players are eliminated (especially deep in the money).

On another topic, I would estimate our hero's EV would drop by ~$90 if we include the times that UTG+1 calls, which still leaves this as a clear push. Throw in that we're using a worst case scenario for the opponents' ranges (as you mentioned) and it's too bad TTIU didn't have any time bank left. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Very nice work, Lloyd!

Che

Re: Lloyd, why do...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure hero's equity *decreases* when a player is eliminated?

[/ QUOTE ]

in real life, no, of course not. this is another place where chip count gives you bad results. suppose you have 99% of the chips left with 3 people in a 5/3/2 sit n go, so 4 units still up grabs, 2 locked up. chip count estimates you get .99*4+2 ~= 6. when you knock one guy out, you have 3+.99*2 ~=5. the same thing is happening here.

we're giving 9 of the 10 players left $360 (and one goes home). so of the prize pool that's being distributed right now, hero gets 11.1%. but chip count was assuming before he'd get 15% of the remaining prize pool in play, so knocking someone out and getting "just" 11.1% hurts hero's EV, according to the math.

nice analysis, lloyd.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

[ QUOTE ]
HAND ASSUMPTIONS

UTG+1 (tsoprano) is raising with any Ace, any pair, any 2 broadway. That's tighter than it should be at this stage but according to TTIU he's playing particularly tight. This represents 298 of the possible 1,326 hands (taking into account the fact that our hero has AK).

UTG+2 is re-raising with AA-88, AK-AQ. Again, if UTG+1 was playing more aggressively than this should be a greater range .

If our hero folds, UTG+1 is getting 2 to 1 odds and will call with AA-77, AK-AT, KQ-KT, QJ. This range is about 1.5 to 1 against AA-88, AK-AQ making the call pretty favorable. This is a total of 139 hands so UTG+1 will call in this situation 47% of the time.

If our hero calls, UTG+1 will only call if he has AA-KK. There are only 6 possible combinations for him to have AA-KK so he would only call in this situation 2% of the time.

PRIZE MONEY

I don't have the actual numbers from this tourney but we can use the numbers from tonight's event as an approximation. All players are guaranteed 10th place money of $412. They are playing for the remaining pool of $31,562. Once the next person is eliminated all remaining players are guaranteed $772 ($360 more than they are guaranteed now) and are playing for an additional pool of $28,322.

CHIPS IN PLAY

Again, I don't have the actual numbers and this could make a slight difference but I don't think it will be too significant. Tonight there are 6,596,000 total chips in play. Tonight's prize pool is almost identical to the tournament we're looking at so I'm comfortable using this number.

IF HERO FOLDS

His Stack: 1,016,946 (15.4% of total chips)

UTG+1 Calls 47% of the time. He will win 40% of the time. If UTG+1 wins, UTG+2 is eliminated. All players are now guaranteed 9th place money. Our hero's equity is .154*28,322+360=$4,722. If UTG+1 loses, our hero's equity is .154*31,562=$4,861. The total equity for our hero if UTG+1 calls is $4,805 (4722*.40 + 4861*.60).

UTG+1 Folds 53% of the time. Our hero's equity is $4,861 (it makes no difference if UTG+1 calls and loses or just folds, only whether or not UTG+2 is still in the game).

The total equity of folding is $4,835 (4805*.47 + 4861*.53).

IF HERO CALLS

UTG+1 will fold 98% of the time. Hero will win against UTG+2 50% of the time. If Hero wins, UTG+2 is eliminated and the Hero wins 851,726 and has a stack of 1,958,672 (29.7%). If Hero loses, his stack is reduced to 474,220 (7.2%).

Hero's equity if he wins is .297*28,322 + 360 = $8,772. Hero's equity if he loses is .072*31,562 = $2,272. Total equity when Hero calls and UTG+1 folds is $5,522 (8772*.5 + 2272*.5).

For the 2% of the time that UTG+1 has AA-KK, I'm going to ignore since it 2AM. But I did want to crunch these numbers since it's a good example.

In summary:

$EV of Folding = $4,835
$EV of Calling = $5,522

Calling is clearly superior to folding based on the assumptions above.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice work.

Re: Lloyd, why do...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure hero's equity *decreases* when a player is eliminated? This result flies in the face of the "survival has value" theory which assumes your chips increase in value when players are eliminated (especially deep in the money).

[/ QUOTE ]
You know that baffled me as well, of course. But I remember a thread that Adanthar posted a couple of weeks ago that had a similar conclusion. In that example, the hero's $EV decreased after the ITM bubble just like in this one.

To come up with the prize money for the calculation:

1) With UTG+2 still in:

I took the total prize money for 1-9 and subtracted out 9 times the 10th place money since all 9 of those people are guaranteed at least that much.

2) With UTG+2 out:

I took the total prize money for 1-8 and subtracted out 8 times the 9th place money, since all 8 people now are guaranteed that much. Once that number is multiplied by the appropriate chip count percentage, I added back the difference between 9th and 10th place (the $360 figure) to account for the increase in what everyone is guaranteed.

I'm pretty sure this is correct but I'm open for another suggestion.

$EV isn't perfect, of course. But there are very few ways we can analyze a situation like this and I don't if any other way is any better.

Re: Hand 1 from Stars 11+R
 

Nice work Lloyd. As you pointed out, the chances of running into AA/KK are slim because of you holding AK (leaving only 3 ways each to make AA & KK). Thus we are likely either an 11:9 dog against a PP or a 3:1 favorite against a dominated hand like AQ. Math suggests that whenever you can include AQ in your opponent's ROH (range of hands) then playing AK is profitable whenever you are getting close to even money or better.

I agree with your analyis and other posts (e.g. good god people) that say this is a clear push because of the dead money in the pot and the fairly wide ROHs that we can assign to our 2 opponents. In this case, even if we could rule out AQ from the reraiser's ROH (and I don't know how we could possibly do that given his stack size) we should still be willing to get all-in as an 11:9 dog against a short stack given the > 11:9 pot odds we are getting.

Yes, the fact that another larger stack is yet to act is scary - but if he calls with anything less than AA/KK (e.g. JJ/QQ) he is just increasing our pot odds.