Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

I think you mis-understood my comments. I like giving action this way from time to time to induce more action from my opponents in future hands.

- Jim

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you mis-understood my comments. I like giving action this way from time to time to induce more action from my opponents in future hands.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, then I agree. Capping to mix up our game is good from time to time. I would rather chose a spot where I better folding equity, but raising here occassionally is fine I guess. But I should be standard imo.

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

Very nice work. I don't get why people want to raise this turn. It's aggressive and all and thats great, but calling is much more profitable unless you kick up your assumption of fold equity a good notch.

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

MP2 calls, UTG 3bets and leads into you on the river:

[(3+3x)*.37 - 3*.63] + [(2+2y)*.935 - 2*.065] =
[(3+3*.8)*.37 - 3*.63] + [(2+2*.65)*.935 - 2*.065] =
[(5.4)*.37 - 1.89] + [(3.3)*.935 - .13] =
[.108] + [2.955] =
+ 3.063BB


Definitely possible.
Should our equity drop if UTG 3bets. Maybe.
Should the % MP calls the turn raise be increased seeing as he's loose. Probably.
Is MP more likely to call two cold on the river because of the deception of our turn raise. Maybe.
Do metagame considerations have an effect. Always.

All I'm pointing out is that the scale between right and wrong is a lot closer than your original equations make it out to be.

It's probably a lot worse than I figured when I made my original post but it's definitely closer than you make it out to be.

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

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Definitely possible.


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This will happen very rarely against loose passives and when it does it means we'll have at most 14 outs (30% equity). A loose passive won't 3-bet on this coordinated board with less than a set and he's more likely to already hold a straight.

[ QUOTE ]
Should our equity drop if UTG 3bets. Maybe.


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Not maybe, definately.

[ QUOTE ]
Should the % MP calls the turn raise be increased seeing as he's loose. Probably.

[/ QUOTE ]
I first estimated 80%, I think that's too low given his flop aggression. At the same time he could have gotten aggressive on the flop with a marginal hand to thin the field. However, x=<90% for sure.

[ QUOTE ]
Is MP more likely to call two cold on the river because of the deception of our turn raise. Maybe.
Do metagame considerations have an effect. Always.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure what you mean. We'll get more callers by varying our play and raise big draws sometimes. This should be done occassionally. And this isn't my favorite spot to be doing it since I think the EV of a call is much higher than the EV of a raise. We should varying our play when there's only a small differance. I would like some folding equity here to lower the gap between the 2 lines to make me like raising the turn.

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

About as standard as it gets (postflop anyways).

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

Seems to me if UTG is passive you're not getting 3-bet very often which is probably good since you'll be HU some of the time after the raise but your hand is almost never good as is...even to the point that you can't call a river bet without the turn raise...which makes the raise seem a bit pointless. Sure you may have a hair more than 1/3 equity and might make be making a theoretical fraction of a bet if MP2 coldcalls but you know he'll overcall almost always if you just call. Getting led into again on the river is also nice when you catch. I don't like it. I don't think it's really that bad given your equity but calling certainly seems to have a higher expectation.

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

Would UTG bet out this turn if he just picked up a flush draw? If he would, I like the raise because you likely have him beat; if you don't, you have plenty of outs. Also, the turn raise may get MP2 to fold a pair of Ts.

But, if UTG would only bet a made hand here, then I think I'd prefer just calling the turn.

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

Good investigation by the way. I would have done the same if I was any good at math, I'll let the math wiz take care of the numbers from here on.

If the pot was HU it really depends who we are playing against. The only reason why I'd want to raise on the turn HU is so he knows that I'm aggressive and that I'm willing to push here with a semi-marginal hand with a big draw, trying to build a aggressive image I guess. I don't think we can fold many hands on the turn though, I'm sure anyone who has a T will the raise. I better bluff would be an A/Kc, I think more players are willing to fold when those cards flops.

Re: 10/20 Q9s
 

if mp2 is loose post and has a T he wont want to fld it very much which is good. That being said, you have a pair and a strt-flsh draw, so you are huge. You are huge. I like teh aggro