Getting desperate for help
 

Well I feel like I've hit rock bottom. After winning consistently for a year at 15/30 (about 1.9 BB/100 hands, up 170K for 10 months) I had a 600 BB downturn that I posted about in January. Since then I've played break even poker only for 8 weeks, and now this week I'm down 200 more BB's. My gut tells me I'm just running real bad, but my brain tells me that I can't possibly run this bad for this long. On the other hand how did my game just suddenly fall apart?

Anyone willing to review some hand histories for me and offer advice?

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

given the amount you've contributed to these forums I think most posters, including me, would be more than willing to give you a hand.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

David,

Many people in the past have pointed out things in your game that you need to fix. You have in the past admitted that you think some of these things might not be optimal poker, but you choose to play these hands/situations anyway. Have you eliminated all of the things people have pointed out as leaks already? If not, this streak is not any surprise, and that's where you need to start.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

You're too loose, too passive, and far too straightforward. And you make some very bad cold-calls. This isn't me slamming you, just reminding you what the problems. Tighten up, quit being the first cold-caller for a bit, and see what happens.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

Right now you must be in a mood where you play "scared poker". No good, especially not at hyperaggro party 15-30. Why don't you try another (softer) game for a while? Change handle, make some more plays. Get your confidence back! /v

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
And you make some very bad cold-calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is still the case in David's game, I am not at all surprised by this post.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And you make some very bad cold-calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is still the case in David's game, I am not at all surprised by this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to be fair, I haven't played with him extremely recently but last time I did, yes.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

In addition to what bicyclekick already said, your table selection sucks. IMHO, not moving from a table once it's turned sour is a sign of laziness. And I see you continuing to sit at bad tables all the time....

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

You are too in love with hands like JQs. I have seen you cold call 3 with it in something like EP3. Best of luck.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

David, this is getting sort of old. You keep getting great advice, and it doesn't seem like you're willing to put the work in to get better. Over 10 weeks or so and 800BBs, you've made exactly 1 post in the Mid-high forum. What do you do in terms of studying/analysis this days?

My advice to you? Start writing again. You have a lot of insanely good poker minds out there at your disposal if you just swallow your pride and put your game on display for better or worse.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're too loose, too passive, and far too straightforward. And you make some very bad cold-calls. This isn't me slamming you, just reminding you what the problems. Tighten up, quit being the first cold-caller for a bit, and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

scrub

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
In addition to what bicyclekick already said, your table selection sucks. IMHO, not moving from a table once it's turned sour is a sign of laziness. And I see you continuing to sit at bad tables all the time....

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen this a lot also.

When you started to go on your run, I noticed that you were playing more during non-peak hours as well.

scrub

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

Hi, David. I note not once in my game, that after facing several downstreaks i start to play tighter then usual and my results become even worse. I start cold-calling instead 3-betting, and folding instead raising. How this happens?

When you're on downstreak - your opponents are quite lucky and it seems they always have better hand than you. You start to trust them more then they deserve. And folding many winners before SD. Please examine your game earlier and if it was more loose-aggressive - try to change yourself to this style again.

I hadn't faced such long downstreaks in my career, though after every 250BB's downstreak i re-consider my play and force myself to make many marginal raises and marginal call downs. And it works and i always become surprised - wtf i used to trust these liars before. This cycle happens to me 3 times in a last year and i think it will happen again.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

David, i think you should post some hands for review, and as gnores suggested, if you start writing again, it will be much eaiser to get feedback. Have you considered putting your tournament career on hold for a while to focus on cash games? I know you enjoy the tournaments more, but i thinkit's important to get your game and your confidence back on track. Your run has to a combination of bad cards and play that is sub-optimal. Here is what i reccomed for starters. Isolate your PT stats since this bad run began. Review your key money-making hands, big pairs, big broadway cards, etc... And thendo the same for the previous 10 months. Lets compare those stats and we can get an idea how much deviance there has been in the last few months from what has been normal for you. I had what i consider to be a sub-optimal month in March, i when i checked PT, i found that i was losing money with AK, AKs, KQ, TT, KQs, and AT. This is obviously an anomole and it gave me an idea of how i was running. I think the results will show that you have been running poorly, put it has to be in combination with some questionable play for a break even stretch of 8 weeks. I think people would have a lot more to go on if you posted some hands that you feel are questionable and then maybe we can go from there.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
David,

Many people in the past have pointed out things in your game that you need to fix. You have in the past admitted that you think some of these things might not be optimal poker, but you choose to play these hands/situations anyway. Have you eliminated all of the things people have pointed out as leaks already? If not, this streak is not any surprise, and that's where you need to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you saying that PP 15/30 has gotten tougher or that David had a year long lucky streak?

I'm all for him improving his game, but a downswing like this after being a comfortable winner over hundreds of thousands of hands likely has another explanation. I suspect a bad run has turned into a horrible run because his game has changed somehow. Probably confidence issues making him play to weak or to agressive, or both. Another theory could be that all that turney play has influenced his ring game play.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
Another theory could be that all that turney play has influenced his ring game play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is something I would delve deeper into

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

So if david posted his aggression stats by street, and the CCPF numbers, this would confirm or deny this hole?

Seems an easy poker-healthcare checkup [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

David,

Going back three years ago when we were both regulars in the Paradise 2/4 and 3/6 games you were a regular contributor to the small stakes forum. As you moved on to playing for a living you posted your weekly updates where you reviewed and discussed much of your play. But at some point this tournament bug hit you and that is where I believe you have let your ring game slip some. When you posted your 600 BB downturn in January somebody recommended that you go back and start posting in the ring game strategy forums. I really think you need to think about this. In my honest opinion if you are not making up for these ring game losses with your multi wins, then I think it would be in your best interest to put the tournament play on hold.

Jeffro

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

This better not be some "haha, April Fools! I'm rich as hell!"
Anyway, I think that the games have gotten a little tougher. I think that many players who have spent their time concentrating on multitabling rather than getting better at poker and moving up in stakes are going to have a hard time when the competition steps up a notch.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

Imagine your learning curve over a period of 3 years, and your amount won curve will have been the same as that just about 3 months delayed. You stopped learning 6 - 12 months ago and now the winning curve stops too.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

I don't believe tournaments are to blame, david quit learning way before that.

Infact the only time i can think of david ever pushing his game since he made it to 5/10 is when he posted 'back to basics' and ZJ took a look at some of his hands and then his win rate improved by 1bb/100h.

'play to win or play for fun'.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine your learning curve over a period of 3 years, and your amount won curve will have been the same as that just about 3 months delayed. You stopped learning 6 - 12 months ago and now the winning curve stops too.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make sense unless he moved to tougher games within the last 6 months. He might have stopped learning, but it was at a stage where he beat the game he's in.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

He got to a very fragile stage of winning which could easily be ended by tilt, games getting tougher or just forgetting things/picking up a bad habit.

All of these things happened at once, variance got a hold of him probably tilted him somewhat and give him bad habits, the games got a bit tougher and changed style, and david isn't learning so his ability isn't improving while it easily could be dropping.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
He got to a very fragile stage of winning a medium amount which could easily be ended by tilt, games getting tougher or just forgetting things/picking up a bad habit.

All of these things happened at once, variance got a hold of him probably tilted him somewhat and give him bad habits, the games got a bit tougher and changed style, and david isn't learning so his ability isn't improving while it easily could be dropping.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you by not learning mean that your game deterioates and gets worse if you don't keep up the studies, then I agree. I just thought your initial explanation was to simplistic and there seems to be a lot of advice like that in this thread.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

i think that if people didnt know that very long bad streaks were possible, they would be much better players. bad streaks are the best time to really take a look at your game and improve it. i was hoping that when you make your 600bb downstreak post you would try to plus some of the obvious holes in your 15/30 game, but was saddened when your conclusion was that you were just running very badly

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
David,

Many people in the past have pointed out things in your game that you need to fix. You have in the past admitted that you think some of these things might not be optimal poker, but you choose to play these hands/situations anyway. Have you eliminated all of the things people have pointed out as leaks already? If not, this streak is not any surprise, and that's where you need to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 :#A500AF(dross has AKo)/ raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 :#A500AF(dross)/ caps</font>, MP3 calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">dross bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">dross 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.83 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">dross bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (11.83 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">dross bets</font>, MP3 calls.


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button :#A500AF(dross)/ raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">dross raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, dross calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, dross calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, dross calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
dross has 7h 7c (one pair, sevens).
SB has 6s Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: SB wins 9.50 BB. </font>

Play less tables.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

I'm going to heed my own statement and give some actually practical advice instead of just speculating about the reasons. There is nothing new in the following, but good advice is good no matter how often it get said:

- Take a week of from poker. Don't play poker, don't read poker, don't think poker. Play with your kids or invent a new form of penecilin.
- Drop down in limits. Don't even think of recouperating your losses, just focus on getting your game straight.
- Post hands and focus on your ring game for a while. Tourneys will still be there once you get back on your feet.
- Play shorter sessions and fewer tables. It's important that you don't fall into automode; this is when we fall back to loosing patterns.
- Stop analyzing what went wrong over the last couple of months. Focus on the future, the next hand. We tend to get into 2nd guessing ourselves when running bad.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

After 800 BB I would just quit. Seriously.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

After reading the thread, I have some odd thoughts to add:

1800 said he did not think the tournament experience was hurting your limit game, but I am not so sure. One thing I do in no limit (ring and tourney) is cold call A LOT more, and I'm pretty sure this is correct. I have been playing a lot more NL ring games lately do to circumstance, and I am always reminding myself of the differences when playing limit.

So, do this: by period (month, quarter, whatever) record your pfcc percentages and your win rate for that period. Obviously, not all cold calls are created equal, but let's just look for a simple correlation to start.

Do the same thing with vpip, pfr, and post flop aggression.

I think your numbers say you were 1.9BB/100 for ~300K hands over a 10 month period. I don't think the games have changed enough in the last year to cause a -2.9bb/100 swing (extrapolating from your numbers, it looks like you are slightly better than -1bb/100 for the last 3 months/90k hands). So the problem is some combination of running bad and your game changing. Over 90k hands (again, guessing that is about what you played this year), it seems that a good portion of this is due to your game deteriorating.

I strongly suggest looking for correlation between your stats and your results.

As to anyone being willing to review hand histories, you have a forum full of them. No one ever got banned for posting too many hands.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

Upon further reflection, I've decided that this is an April Fool's joke.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
Upon further reflection, I've decided that this is an April Fool's joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did for a little too, but then I thought about his play and it's pretty congruent with this downswing. I know that makes me sound like an ass, but meh. I don't think it's a joke, although I wouldn't be suprised. Even if he's not in some attrocious spiral there are some definate things he SHOULD work on.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

It could be a joke because in the last 1000 hands I've played against David, he's running at 4.5 BB/100. I know this is a micro-sized sample, but it's interesting nonetheless. Maybe he should just follow me around since he seems to be winning at my tables...lol.

Re: Getting desperate for help
 

[ QUOTE ]
After reading the thread, I have some odd thoughts to add:

1800 said he did not think the tournament experience was hurting your limit game, but I am not so sure. One thing I do in no limit (ring and tourney) is cold call A LOT more, and I'm pretty sure this is correct. I have been playing a lot more NL ring games lately do to circumstance, and I am always reminding myself of the differences when playing limit.

So, do this: by period (month, quarter, whatever) record your pfcc percentages and your win rate for that period. Obviously, not all cold calls are created equal, but let's just look for a simple correlation to start.

Do the same thing with vpip, pfr, and post flop aggression.

I think your numbers say you were 1.9BB/100 for ~300K hands over a 10 month period. I don't think the games have changed enough in the last year to cause a -2.9bb/100 swing (extrapolating from your numbers, it looks like you are slightly better than -1bb/100 for the last 3 months/90k hands). So the problem is some combination of running bad and your game changing. Over 90k hands (again, guessing that is about what you played this year), it seems that a good portion of this is due to your game deteriorating.

I strongly suggest looking for correlation between your stats and your results.

As to anyone being willing to review hand histories, you have a forum full of them. No one ever got banned for posting too many hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

POTT.

-Barron

No Joke
 

It's definitely not a joke. I need help, but posting a couple or dozens of hands isn't going to do it, because I'm not sure where to look anymore. I really would love for someone to take a nights worth of play and identify hands that show a trend towards sub-par play for me and then put them up for discussion. I'm so focused on the $700 pots that I lead until the river that I'm having trouble identifying the specific areas that need work. I have dropped the cold calls with suited broadways that I used to play a lot. I'm cold calling now only with pairs that I think have a chance of seeing a flop 4 ways or better, otherwise I'm 3 betting or folding.

I really think my problems are post flop though. I'm not getting paid off on big hands, and I'm paying off too much, but on the other hand I'm folding a couple of winners a night too.

SO who is willing to step up and look at a nights worth of hands for me?

Re: No Joke
 

Me, but I can't get to it before sometime next week.

Re: No Joke
 

Sounds like it's time for a couple weeks off.

TSP

Re: No Joke
 

Post the last 20 hands where you saw the flop. It doesn't matter how boring or routine the hand is, just do it. Of course, you'll also need to post the relevant stats, what you knew about the other players at the time the hand transpired, etc.

PM me
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's definitely not a joke. I need help, but posting a couple or dozens of hands isn't going to do it, because I'm not sure where to look anymore. I really would love for someone to take a nights worth of play and identify hands that show a trend towards sub-par play for me and then put them up for discussion. I'm so focused on the $700 pots that I lead until the river that I'm having trouble identifying the specific areas that need work. I have dropped the cold calls with suited broadways that I used to play a lot. I'm cold calling now only with pairs that I think have a chance of seeing a flop 4 ways or better, otherwise I'm 3 betting or folding.

I really think my problems are post flop though. I'm not getting paid off on big hands, and I'm paying off too much, but on the other hand I'm folding a couple of winners a night too.

SO who is willing to step up and look at a nights worth of hands for me?

[/ QUOTE ]

i feel for ya DR. and since you share the same name with a good friend from college i'll do it.

pm me your AIM name and i'll play w/ you tonight (at your tables) &amp; scout a game or two for us. when we are not in hands together tell me what you have &amp; i'll watch you play.

requirements: we play no more than 2 tables for a bit and test it out. i want you to concentrate on your hands. 2) you DONT DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT now that i'd be watching...if you do, tell me. if not, you wont learn if its a mistake imo...PROVISO, clearly im not the best on this forum by any stretch of the imagination so my advice will only be able to stem the tide and not improve you to a 3bb/100 winner.

-Barron

Re: No Joke
 

I know im new to this forum, but I am a winning player who makes his living doing this and would gladly review hands for you David.