Need a second opinion...
 

I posted this in the MSNL forum and the basic consensus was, "Call any raise with any pocket pair as long as it obeys the 5/10 rule." Well, the situation I proposed was you and villain are sitting at a full table with 10x the buy-in ($2000 at 1/2).
You limp in EP with 22 and he raises to 50x the big blind ($100). The replies said this is a standard call... as it obeys the 5%/10% rule.

<font color="red"> As higher limit players I'm prone to respect your opinion on this matter, but do you think this is a correct call? </font>

You lose almost no equity folding, and its going to be much harder for you to stack him with the implied odds you need to make this a correct call --considering the highest probability of someone getting stacked is you if you both hit sets or similiar outcomes.

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Due to their strength and inconspicuous nature, Sets are by far and large the cash hand in No-Limit holdem. However, do we overestimate their implied odds?

It is common belief that it is standard to call a large raise
with small pocket pairs, betting that your opponent will pay with his entire stack should you hit (as long as it obeys the 5/10 rule). If so, is it also standard to call large raises with small suited connectors? They work on the same basic concept.

Very few people are capable of playing small PP against their opponent unimproved (a pre-flop raiser), profitabily.
They can only do so with multiple solid reads, something most of us online types don't have the pleasure of having.

That said, we are relying only on the equity that will come from our hand should we improve.
We will improve 1 in 7.5x, against an opponent who will improve around 1 in 3 (AQ/AK/KQ) OR 1 in 7.5x like us.

So to call a 5x BB raise PF, we will need to make 7.5 * 5 or 35 BigBlinds on average each time we do hit. At a 1/2 game, thats about 70 dollars.

It is my opinion that 35 big blinds or more everytime you hit is unsustainable. That's without factoring reverse implied odds. I don't know the chance of a person raising with 99-AA, but I'm sure one of you could post it in a reply. He also has 1:7.5 to improve and assuming he's raising with a pocket pair, 2% of the time he's going to stack with his higher set you unless you hit quads (%5 of that time).

Thats not including the times you hit your set and he folds because he missed. Sure you're going to take down his pot (and continuation bet) when this occurs, but your still not getting your +35big blinds on average that you need to make a profit.

This is going to happen when an ace hits vs his 1010-KK, and he doesn't make a pair with this overcards.

However this all said, I do think its profitable to call a large raise should there be around 2 or more callers in front of you.

I'm not that great of a mathematician so someone else could probaly crunch the numbers better than I.

(Edit)
To everyone who points to the PT stats of 22-77 being in the green, You're forgetting about the times that you play these hands with limps/in blinds/smaller raises.

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Re: Need a second opinion...
 

Q: I've heard other posters mentioning the 5/10 rule. What is it?

A: The 5/10 rule is an important no-limit concept that first appeared in Bob Ciaffone's excellent book, "PL &amp; NL Poker." To quote directly from the book:

"When contemplating calling a raise because your position is good, you have a clear call if the raise is less than 5% of your stack, and a clear fold if it is more than 10%. In between those numbers, use your judgement."

10% of the stack in a deep situation like that is a borderline clear fold

i like how you changed your raise from 25xBB in MSNL to 50xBB here. thats a big difference.

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Q: I've heard other posters mentioning the 5/10 rule. What is it?

A: The 5/10 rule is an important no-limit concept that first appeared in Bob Ciaffone's excellent book, "PL &amp; NL Poker." To quote directly from the book:

"When contemplating calling a raise because your position is good, you have a clear call if the raise is less than 5% of your stack, and a clear fold if it is more than 10%. In between those numbers, use your judgement."

10% of the stack in a deep situation like that is a borderline clear fold

i like how you changed your raise from 25xBB in MSNL to 50xBB here. thats a big difference.

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Yves, I feel obligated to inform you that 50xBB at a NL game ($100) is in fact 5% of 2000 or 10 buy-ins.
IF the basic mathematical principles which govern this have changed, please let me know...

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

well then, the point still stands, im most likely calling here

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

Yves sorry if I came off a wrong way, I'm not trying to be rude. There are far better players than I on this forum, and I respect their opinion should they tell me I'm wrong.
Although, at the very least I'd like it discussed and questioned that's why i'm pushing the issue.

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

I'd fold because the villian probably won't be playing for his whole stack against the only player at the table that he can lose all his money too. I also don't think it's worth calling 50x BB when you'll be able to call much less most of the time. The 5/10 rule applies to standard raises (re-raises), and obviously 50xBB is not the standard raises.

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

In my opinion, this is entirely read dependent. I need to be fairly certain that if my opponent here has AA and the flop comes a rainbow 2 6 9, he's going to be willing to put it all in. In my limited online experience, this would be rare from 1-2 to 10-20. In my rather extensive live experience, I'd expect to find these situations occur MUCH more frequently.

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

Rea, my entire point of this is the situation is either
slightly marginal -ev (having your implied odds cover the cost of the equity you lose frmo the initial call)
or very negative -ev (hitting against a good opponent who doesn't overplay their overpair)

I have the same opinions as you: Online players are usually better and less likely to pay you off therefor alot of the time it's very negative ev.

So by basically by folding you're forgoing the chance at a minor +ev play to avoid a drastic -ev one.

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

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You limp in EP with 22 and he raises to 50x the big blind ($100). The replies said this is a standard call... as it obeys the 5%/10% rule.

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is this post serious? if so, the forums were split for a reason so lets stick with the split.

there are no rules. this 5/10 thing is just a guideline for people who dont understand implied odds. if you understood implied odds then you would know the answer to the question.

the best response you will get here is "it depends"

Re: Need a second opinion...
 

I don't agree with you here.

Calling here cannot be "either marginally +ev or drasically -ev." If the play is +ev, whether marginally or not, you are taking into account the possibility of getting hammered if you both flop sets.

Put it this way - if we were to assume that the raiser will push the flop no matter what, then I am calling here preflop every time.