How much is a down worth? (football theory question)
 

Lets say you run a 5 yard play on first down, but a 5 yard penalty is called on the defense. Clearly, you take the penalty and first and 5, rather than decline for second and 5.

But, it seems reasonable that if you ran a play that left you with second and inches, you would decline the penalty.

At what point (between second and inches and second and 5) does this change occur?

Re: How much is a down worth? (football theory question)
 

I'd guess around 2nd and 2 is the penalty accepting threshold. However, alot of it is situational, score, time remaining, etc.

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Re: How much is a down worth? (football theory question)
 

One guess is just arithmetic: 5 yds/3 downs = 1.67 yds/down.

So, 3.3 yards/2 downs = 1.67.

So, second and 3.3 is the cutoff.

Re: How much is a down worth? (football theory question)
 

[ QUOTE ]
One guess is just arithmetic: 5 yds/3 downs = 1.67 yds/down.

So, 3.3 yards/2 downs = 1.67.

So, second and 3.3 is the cutoff.

[/ QUOTE ]

but that assumes they always go for it on 4th down.

Re: How much is a down worth? (football theory question)
 

[ QUOTE ]
One guess is just arithmetic: 5 yds/3 downs = 1.67 yds/down.

So, 3.3 yards/2 downs = 1.67.

So, second and 3.3 is the cutoff.

[/ QUOTE ]


If I were a coach, and I had to pick between 2nd and 3+ and 1st and 5, I'd take first and five.


I'd take the penalty unless I was inside of 2 yards. 2nd and less than 2.


Unless I was in 4 down territory, then I'd take a 2nd and 3.