Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

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Sa125's statement can end the thread.

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Thanks rookie. Now that you say so, I guess we can all go to sleep. Never mind that it makes absolutely no sense for this player to hold any hand you beat.

-Eric

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

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I get it in my head he has A2.

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River Jack. He bets, I raise

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Awesome!

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

I say put in a 6th bet then fold for a 7th bet. At this point you can be abolutely sure of your read.

-ActionBob

an objective look at the hand
 

First of all, I did not fold, though I thought about it.

Let's say that the only hands he could have are AA, A2, and 22. He would only play AA this way 10% of the time preflop, but A2 and 22 he would always call with a 3rd person in.

By the river there are 6 ways he could have A2, 3 ways he could have AA, and 1 way he could have 22.

I think this guy would 3bet my river raise with A2 50% of the time, and every time with AA and 22.

{Note I didn't really error check this but I think it's right}

AA: 10% * 3 * 100% = 0.3
A2: 100% * 6 * 50% = 3.0
22: 100% * 1 * 100% = 1.0

I have the best hand 3/4.3 = 70% of the time so I should 4-bet.

Now he 5-bets. How often does he need to do this with A2 for me to call? It turns out the answer is 1.1% of the time:

AA: 10% * 3 * 100% = 0.3
A2: 100% * 6 * 1.1% = 0.066
22: 100% * 1 * 100% = 1.0

0.066/1.366 = 4.8% chance of winning.

So a fold would have been pretty terrible.

He had 22.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

I don't get it.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
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I get it in my head he has A2.

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River Jack. He bets, I raise

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Awesome!

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Are you folding A2 to a river raise here?

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

maybe you should have just called on the river. but since you did raise and he three bet why on earth did you four bet that hand.
maybe instead of trying to make some star play folding in a big pot, try thinking about how it got so big with you having the worst hand.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

sorry didnt read carefully.

Re: The ole\' 4-bet, fold to a 5-bet
 

"why on earth did you four bet that hand"

I thought A2 was still in his range. For what it's worth, after the hand he told his buddy "I don't think I needed that extra 2", so he had me on AK, and therefore would have 3bet with A2. It is 6 times more likely for him to hold A2 vs. 22 on this board.

Re: an objective look at the hand
 

Ryno, your read in the post is that this guy is pretty passive once an opponent raises once. In this hand, you 4-bet the river and he is 5-betting. You think he is making a thin value 5-bet with the 5th nuts here? That's totally inconsistent with your description of the guy's playing style, and this is a player you claim to know well as a regular.

Even if he only needs to do this 1% of the time he holds A2, a fold is still good if he'll actually do it 0%. In fact, if he'll do it 0%, calling is a full 1 BB mistake.

good luck.
Eric