Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

Ever since I was brand new, I've had some problems with Pot Odds, but now that I know alot more about it, one thing really has me wondering about this concept.

Say I have A,Q suited (spades) on the button, one player has limped I raise 4 times BB ($10), get one caller the limper (tight aggressive player), SB and BB fold

flop comes beautifully for me (or so I think) Ad, Qd, Js

I flop top two pair, my opponent bets the pot ($95) so now I have to call $95 to win $190, I'm getting 2 to 1 on my money with top two pair, how can I not call it, right??? How can I not be more than 33% to win???

Here are the hands that my opponent can have and if I knew I wouldn't be calling quite so fast

Pocket AA he's 95/5 favorite or 19 to 1
Pocket QQ he's 86/14 favorite
Pocket JJ, he's 78/22 favorite
K,10 the same 78/22

against any two diamonds like (6,5) I'm a 67/33 favorite, but against 10,9d I'm only 51/49

Really the only hands that I'll be significantly favored against other than a flush draw are pocket KK, 10s, or A-J, Q-J,

Pocket AA, QQ, JJ, K,10 I almost can't win, but I'll be getting "the correct pot odds" to do so, How can pot odds factor into this decision without being so misleading? any ideas???

Pocket JJ is a very plausible hand my opponent could have made those bets with, limp but than call a reraise, make a pot size bet out of position on the flop, most likely fearing a flush or straight draw. With A,Q I'm dead in the water (practically), but I'll have pot odds on my side, whatever that's worth

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

It sounds to me like you think you'll only be winning here a very small ammount of the time. If the pot odds say you need to win 33% of the time and you obviously put yourself at less than that, problem solved, fold. Ah, the miracle of pot odds!

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

Hmm... This is kind of a difficult post to respond to. Don't be surprised if you get a lot of really mean, sarcastic responses. I would even consider deleting it.

You should look into the concept of hand ranges, and try to be more thorough when you're thinking of possible hands. [Most notably AK]

Don't you think that a 'tight aggressive' limp-caller will lead for pot with a much greater range than that stated, as well? Underpairs? Air?

[ QUOTE ]
Pocket AA, QQ, JJ, K,10 I almost can't win, but I'll be getting "the correct pot odds" to do so, How can pot odds factor into this decision without being so misleading? any ideas???

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Against AA, QQ, JJ, and KT, you don't have proper odds to call. You only have the proper odds because you assume that villain's range is significantly more broad.

I'm not sure the pot odds are misleading here. If you don't think there's at least a 33% chance of having the best hand here, you're either much too tight or villain is.

Merry Christmas.

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

you raise to $10, get one caller and the pot is $95?

furthermore you say you are 19:1, 86:14. etc but are getting the correct 2:1 pot odds? wtf are you talking about?

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

[ QUOTE ]
you raise to $10, get one caller and the pot is $95?


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I think he meant the BB is $10.

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

Thank you for the Merry Christmas wishes!

Yeah I think I'm 33% to win the pot, probably better in all honestly, but when I see two pair and I see the board, it's not an instacall because I have the pot odds.

I've heard some players tell me they knew they were beat but they had the right pot odds to call "so they had to" Nonsense!

I'm going to be evaluating factors like what was my opponent's betting preflop? if I'm at a B&M what was his reaction to the flop?

In this situation I would do more than just call, I'd raise and if he moved in on me, than I'd know he could have one of those hands that beats me silly like AA, QQ, JJ, K-10

All I'm trying to say is, pot odds is great for figuring how much to call on a draw, but when you have top pair or similiar you have to not only do the pot odds, but assume you know whether it's good or not, and you really don't have any idea, You'd use other factors like preflop betting, reactions, and most importantly you'd raise to find out where you are in the hand

Pot Odds is of little importance to me.

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

I said I raise 4 BB ($10) that means the BB is $10, and my raise was $40, one caller $80, the SB and BB is another $15, for a total of $95

19:1 is 95/5 or 95% AA 5% A-Q The AA are going to beat my hand 19 times out of 20 or they are winning 19 to 1

86/14 on the QQ is 86% favorite

2 to 1 on the pot odds is I have to call $95 to win $190, that's 2 to 1 on my money

Hope that clears it up

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

Actually no, I don't think A-Q, top two pair, is anywhere close to less than 33% to win.

All I'm trying to do is point out that if you go by Pot Odds it DEMANDS a call in this situation, but you could be Walking, no stracth that, Running head on into Big Time trouble.

I think many other factors have to be used before Pot Odds, it just is a way of calling off money if you ask me, but that's why I'm asking the forum, for someone who believes in Pot Odds to show me differently or at least discuss it with me

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the Merry Christmas wishes!

Yeah I think I'm 33% to win the pot, probably better in all honestly, but when I see two pair and I see the board, it's not an instacall because I have the pot odds.


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Thank you for this enlightening observation. Maybe this is why I have lost $1,500 in 7 months while playing 30-40 hours a week. Truly a revelation.

Re: Basing Decisions on Pot odds???
 

Dude, what you need to do is assess whether or not the odds of you winning the hand is greater than the pot odds. You do that by putting opponent on hand ranges as someone else said. If you know your opponent so well as to put him on the AA QQ JJ K10 your toast, not even close to 2 to 1 to win, right? So you chuck your crap that's a longshot if that were the case.