Making outs to odds conversion
 

In holdem, I know that I can take the outs and multiply by 4 on the turn and 2 on the river to get a rough % that I can then turn into odds. How do I figure out the odds of a runner runner situation? I think it's just a matter of memorization for actual use, but I want to know how to figure:

1-two of the same suit
2-two of the same rank
3-two of exact rank (such as for a straight)

2 & 3 may be exactly the same, I don't know.

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

Post this in the probability forum and you'll get an immediate reply. (usually)

Dov

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

Just multiply by 2 for each card left to come. If you've got alot of outs(9 or more), it's a little less, if you've got only a few outs (3 or less), it's a little more.

So 8 outs on the flop comes 2 * 2 * 8 % of the time by the river, or 32%.

It's just an estimation, but it's a pretty good one.

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

Count 1.5 outs for runner runner (that is if it is a backdoor flush/backdoor straight)

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

That 4%-2% calculation is reasonable for small outs, but falls apart when you've got lots of outs. And its mostly a waste of time, since you can simply go straight from "outs" to "odds" by the following: #cards left (typically 45-47) minus outs divided by outs. So if you have 5 outs 47-5=42, 42/5= 8.4:1 odds against snagging it on the next round. If you figure to take two cards you CAN sort of multiply your outs by two (47-10=37, 37/10=3.7:1 against), but its worse than that ("worse" is a measure of likelhood of snagging two of your cards).

Running-runner is harder to calculate, and you've got the problem of adjusting for the increased cost (you need to call another bet some of the time). A backdoor flush draw is "worth" 1.5 bets, a good back-door straight draw is "worth" 1.4 (I think).

- Louie

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

LOL, that may work in a B&M when being dealt 35-40 hands an hour but I'll stick to the 2 4 rule when catching about 150 to 200 hands an hour.

I can't think that fast Louie, yeah I know, personal problem [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

I don't calculate fast either. Cannot count to 21 unless my pants are down. But I digress...

One of us misunderstood. Are you saying that if you have "6 outs" you'll figure that's 12%, and 100-12=88, and 88:12 is "7+:1"? And that's "faster" than "6 outs", 42 bads, 42:6 is "7:1"?

I don't think its faster, and its less accurate.

- Louie

The fastest way to make outs to odds conversions....
 

Comes from that nut John Turmel.

Memorized this array:

Outs: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 21
Odds: 45 22 14 10 08 07 06 05 04 04 03 03 03 02 02 02 1.5 1.2

(I added some zeros to help out with spacing)

Pretty simple, and saves all the mental gymnastics when multi-tabling.

If you want to remember quickly, multiply the odds by the outs, you can see some distinct patterns. Or you can add the outs and the odds together to see other patterns.

Best,
Zim

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

Hi Louie,

[ QUOTE ]
One of us misunderstood. Are you saying that if you have "6 outs" you'll figure that's 12%, and 100-12=88, and 88:12 is "7+:1"? And that's "faster" than "6 outs", 42 bads, 42:6 is "7:1"?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's faster for some of us who (for other reasons altogether) have percentage-to-fractionals memorized. I don't have to do the (100 - %%)%% calculation, because I know that 9% is 1/11th, 10% is 1/10th, 11% is 1/9th, 12.5% is 1/8th, 14% is 1/7th, 17% is 1/6th, 20% is 1/5th, 25% is 1/4th, 33% is 1/3rd, 40% is 2/5ths, 50% is 1/2, and so on.

So for me, the outs x cards to come x 2% equation works for me, at least for Hold'Em where outs are typically within the range of reliability for that equation. For Omaha, it isn't as useful, because the 2%/4% equation breaks down at around 12-13 outs, and in Omaha you commonly have more outs than that.

Cris

Re: Making outs to odds conversion
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't calculate fast either. Cannot count to 21 unless my pants are down. But I digress...

One of us misunderstood. Are you saying that if you have "6 outs" you'll figure that's 12%, and 100-12=88, and 88:12 is "7+:1"? And that's "faster" than "6 outs", 42 bads, 42:6 is "7:1"?

I don't think its faster, and its less accurate.

- Louie

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have six outs and turn and river to go then I multiply 6 outs X 4 which gives me 24% or approx 3:1 . If I only have the river to go then I would multiply 6 outs X 2 which gives me 12% or approx 7:1

Hope that makes more sense, not perfect but close and easy

P.S. I'm not sure where I learned it from so don't know who to give credit...

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co