Being hot vs being due
 

Suppose you and your friend are flipping a quarter for $10 a pop for a day. You win on heads. He wins for tails.

Somewhere in the middle, you find yourself down $160 and tails has landed 7 of the last 8 times and your friend offers you to switch to tails.

Which one of these thoughts are you more inclined to believe in?

Re: Being hot vs being due
 

I may switch, not because of either of the choices you said but maybe the coins weight is not balanced.

Re: Being hot vs being due
 

It doesnt matter... unless it is different weight, but realistically speaking if it is a 50/50, then it doesnt matter at all, lol. If i had to choose on a 50/50 I would stick to heads since 'I'd be due'.

Re: Being hot vs being due
 

the correct answer (if it's possible that the coin is not fair) is switch to tails, because you have slightly more evidence that the coin is biased toward tails than toward heads.

if you somehow know that the coin is unbiased it obviously doesn't matter.

the only way to justify preferring to stick with heads rather than switch to tails is if you came into the day suspecting that your friend is more likely to bring a coin biased in your favor (heads) than his own (tails).

Re: Being hot vs being due
 

Tails. It doesn't really matter, but the slight chance of it being favored towards tails would make me lean towards it.

Re: Being hot vs being due
 

There's an old saying in finance that finding a consistent loser is as good as finding a consistent winner since you can just short the loser's strategy. Basically, do what you want, homiehomie, I'll take the other side.

Follow up question
 

If you were the other guy, would you be more or less inclined to switch?

Re: Follow up question
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you were the other guy, would you be more or less inclined to switch?

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This is the same question as the OP.

Re: Being hot vs being due
 

I wouldn't believe in either of the thoughts provided, but I would switch to tails. It seems to matter to my friend. If I then go on a rush with tails, I may be able to convince her that it's her fault, put her on tilt, and then cause her to take a -EV gamble. Sort of like Party BJ.

Re: Being hot vs being due
 

[ QUOTE ]
It doesnt matter... unless it is different weight, but realistically speaking if it is a 50/50, then it doesnt matter at all, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

did you really laugh out loud at this point?