Catastrophic turn play
 

Paradise 10-20. 5 players

SB is loose passive.
BB is new to table seems ok.
UTG is loose pre-flop, limps with a lot of weak hands but may be good post-flop - haven't decided yet.

UTG limps, CO folds, I raise from the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] all call. Four to the flop.

Flop T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

check, check, check, I bet all call.

Turn 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

check, check, check, ?

My gut is telling me I'm going to get raised but checking seems unpardonably weak so I bet, planing to call a raise, and hated it.

SB folds, BB raises, UTG 3-bets.

Still hating it I fold.

Anyone for checking the turn, or calling the 3-bet?

chez

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

U did the right thing. I guess u are on a bad run, thats normally when u starts to think: ok, i got toppair, but I know someone is hit harder.

Folding to 3bet is fine. Its 2BB (maybe 3) and u got 1/5 to hit 2nd flush and a decent chance A is out there.

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

Thanks Kiddo.

Happily I'm running very good at the moment. I just needed confirmation I should ignore my gut which was telling me so strongly that I was behind on the turn but could well have the best draw.

Especially as the gut had it right. They both had J7.

I'm still running good, the river wasn't a heart. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]


chez

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

Aren't there something like 14 BB in the pot when it's 2 back to you? Correct me if I counted wrong.

This seems like a catastrophic fold with 9 outs to the second nuts.

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

[ QUOTE ]
decent chance A is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems fairly unlikely to me. A made flush with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] probably waits until turn to raise. But a flush draw with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] almost certainly makes some noise on the flop, no?

But getting either 5 to 1 or 6.5 to 1 from the pot isn't much overlay either, so it seems close to me.

Betting out on turn definitely seems correct. Even if not ahead, you figure to have enough outs that you don't mind calling a single raise, and it's pretty rare you'll end up looking at a cold-call.

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

I probably check it...you got a free card out of your flop bet, and you only have one more card coming that can give you the win if you are behind.....when all the others call your flop bet you've gotta think someone already has the flush. Also that is a pretty coordinated flop...two pair is likely, flush is likely, straight is extremely likely after that 8 hits on the turn....I think you check it and get a free look at the river...i can't see top pair being good here.

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems fairly unlikely to me. A made flush with A probably waits until turn to raise. But a flush draw with A almost certainly makes some noise on the flop, no?

[/ QUOTE ]
These sound like made hands to me, not flush draws. With KT9 in sight there is quite a good chance that a made flush will contain the ace.

It also sounds like your opponents have more hearts than random chance would predict which cuts your chance of getting another one.

Finally if no one has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] it is reasonably likely that one or two of your nine outs make someone a full house or a straight flush. Think about made flushes that saw the flop and don't include A, K, T, or 9.

I think the turn fold is wise. The thin overlay is not adequate for the risks being taken.

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't there something like 14 BB in the pot when it's 2 back to you? Correct me if I counted wrong.

This seems like a catastrophic fold with 9 outs to the second nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, it seemed pretty close to me. I'm getting 6.5:1 but don't I need to discount that a fair bit as it might get capped and I might be drawing dead?

I erred on the side of folding because I was (completely wrongly) suspicious about the turn check-raises. I didn't think they could rely on me to bet the turn and yet they both risked a free card, made me think that the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] being out there was more likely than normal.

chez

Re: Catastrophic turn play
 

The turnbet is a must and I dont think it´s close at all.

When it comes back at 12:2, 15:3 if capped after you call, I´ll call here.