A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings
 

We all know downswings happens, even to the best players. We also know that 30 buy-ins seem to be the standard buffer needed **for winning players**.

I see a lot of posters who ask "I just had 10 OTM, is that normal" or "how long has your longest losing streak been".

Personally I play the $22's and started the $33's and am super-over-bankrolled for them, as I am very conservative moving up, and has been playing 1/2 limit and bonuswhoring previously.
So downswings is no threat to my BR at all, but still hate to lose of course. I'm down 9 buy-ins after 35 $33's, but have had 9 4th's which all were coinflips between exit and a usually solid lead ITM. Being on the wrong side of variance, they were all exits. Some yelling, some stomping in the ground, and I realized that my average $EV of these 4'ths were about $65, so I'll just wait for the results to even out, and then (therotically) I'm showing profit. Playing correctly and the results is what's important, right??
And even when I've played 10 times as many SNG's, if I make a couple of 1st in a row that will be clearly visile in ROI. And a losing streak of 10+ gamesOTM will also be clearly visible. So that just goes to show the importance of sufficient sample size.

Anyhow...... Enough rambling....
What I would like to see from some of you winning players is a result-streak of perhaps 1000 (2000 SNG's??) that shows the ups and downs of good/bad luck periods, if possible graphically.
I think that will give me, as well as other newbies who still doubt themselves when the downswings happens, what sort of fluctuations one could expect.

Anybody willing to provide their data?

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswing
 

"We all know downswings happens, even to the best players."

Yes. I can remember terrible runs from most of the regular posters here.

"We also know that 30 buy-ins seem to be the standard buffer needed **for winning players**."

Depends on level, and how good a winning player they are. 30 buyins really isn't enough unless you're willing to step down a stake or 2.

"so I'll just wait for the results to even out"

Unfortunately they don't actually even out. But, the more games you play, the more your sample will reflect ev.

"what sort of fluctuations one could expect."

Just remember, what ever you have experienced, someone else has experienced much worse.

Off the top of my head, irieguy had a 40 buyin drop, raptor had 700+ for only breakeven, stupid sucker had something pretty vicious, maybe 30-40, daliman had a pretty ugly drop at the $215s. Plenty of others...

"shows the ups and downs of good/bad luck periods, if possible graphically."

suited sixes has a good one.

I remember one $11er had a 60 buyin drop and I think he still showed a profit at the end of it??

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings
 

I have played maybe 2000 11 and 22s combined. Had a 22 OTM streak in the 22s. Had a 15 buy in downswing just yesterday. I have broken many pens and pencils on my desk. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswing
 

http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/1568/330ld.jpg
That's 18.5 buy-ins at the 33's.

I'm almost to 1000 this year. I'll post something when I get there.

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswing
 

I play on PS so I cant speak much about PP. But I know that for me, the lower buy-in I play, the less I really need. I consider it a real rarity to be down 10 BIs at the 16s at stars. While playing the 27s-60s you can really have some swings bc the crowd is much more regular and there isnt a constant influx of fish as there is at the low buy-ins....so ironically, the higher you play, the more buyins you will need. This i sort of obvious but I've only seen a few posters point it out.

I personally would feel very comfortable starting out with 30 BIs at 10s.

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswing
 

[ QUOTE ]
"We also know that 30 buy-ins seem to be the standard buffer needed **for winning players**."

Depends on level, and how good a winning player they are. 30 buyins really isn't enough unless you're willing to step down a stake or 2.


[/ QUOTE ]
Which is why I prefer to be over-BR'ed, so don't have to worry about crippling it, but still playing the level of desire.
[ QUOTE ]

"so I'll just wait for the results to even out"

Unfortunately they don't actually even out. But, the more games you play, the more your sample will reflect ev.


[/ QUOTE ]
What I mean is, I lost like 10 out of 10 coinflips. Eventually, I will win some, and sometimes I will win 10 out of 10.

[ QUOTE ]

"what sort of fluctuations one could expect."

Just remember, what ever you have experienced, someone else has experienced much worse.


[/ QUOTE ]
Oh, I know, but I guess everything is relative?

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswing
 

No, no you won't. I have NEVER won 10/10 coinflips yet I have lost 10/10 many times.

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings
 

well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have played maybe 2000 11 and 22s combined. Had a 22 OTM streak in the 22s. Had a 15 buy in downswing just yesterday. I have broken many pens and pencils on my desk. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Currently down 12.5 buyin at the $33 currently in the midst of 15 OTM. 5 of these are 4th's and 3 5ths, all correct pushes according to SNGPT given somewhat reasonable calling ranges. Yup, that sucks, especially when it's my first venture into this uncharted territory, and I can see that the players are so much not any better than at the $22's. Especially gotta love when people push into me, and they then proceed to hit their 3 outs.

Well, at least I make some back from Bodog's bonus.....

Re: A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings
 

[ QUOTE ]
well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the most disheartening post ever.