5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

5/10 Party, 6 handed. SB has TAG stats over decent sample, something like 20/14. We haven't tangled with each other too much. I've been here a while and am up over 25BBs, and have been showing down good hands, so my image should be pretty solid. UTG is a loose passive.

Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, folds, SB calls, Hero checks

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">SB bets, Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, SB calls

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, SB calls

River 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">SB bets</font>...

Hero calls or folds, and why?

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

Folds because the only thing you're beating is a worse 3, and I don't think he can hold many worse 3s, I wouldn't even complete with Q3s in the SB in his position. I think he's folding all deuce hands on the turn except maybe A2 which just got there.

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

The only way that you can be good is if SB also had a 3 and is now bet/folding the river. If he had 2 I'm thinking he would have folded, and a 6 or A just made it.

How many 3x does he complete in the SB compared to amount of 6x or Ax? Is the ratio better than 1-6.5? If yes this is a call.

If the structure is 2/5 I really don't think villain will play enough 3x to warrant a call.

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

Bump and a note: I'm posting this because my coach thought it was a close decision, and I really didn't.

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

I fold. A tag SB is completing there with very few 2x or 3x hands, A2/A3 are the only remotely likely ones. There's no flush draw so he isn't getting to the river for that reason and if he has any part of a straight draw he made something which beats you.

Even if he was calling to the river with AT, he just made his straight. So that leaves something like KJ/QJ/KT which probably would have folded the turn and is a bit of a reach.

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

I agree that this is a fold and I don't think it's that close. he has every reason to believe that you have a pair or a weak ace and has no reason to believe that you'd fold here. it just doesn't look like a bluff to me.

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

Doesn't look that close to me by daylight. It is a strange bet though. Most TAGs won't value bet a weak pair here. I think it's unlikey that he has a 4 or a 5 here. Unfortunately I think it's quite possible for him to have an A or a 6 here. Or a bluff. But I don't think a TAG calls the turn without a hand just to bluff the river. Keep posting coached hands. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Krishan

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

Fold, and remind your coach this is 5/10, not 30/60 or somewhere else where people are lunatics (so I hear).

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls or folds, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll add my voice to the "fold" chorus. I'm wondering what you do if he doesn't bet. Is there value in betting on the end on the times he checks to you?

Re: 5/10: River Decision in a Blind Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bump and a note: I'm posting this because my coach thought it was a close decision, and I really didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see why it's particularily close either. There's not much in his hand range that you beat.