checking to see if running bad
 

I was wondering if there is a way to verify if I'm running bad by looking at something in PT and it turns out somebody here already did some analysis on how to check this.

Here is the link to that analysis.

post by krishanleong on running bad

He proposes to look at the stats in the Misc Tab to see how your final hands are distributed and what percentage of the times you are winning with these hands.

And here is my Misc Tab

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/903101/misc.JPG

It seems my distribution of hands is way out of line with the standard that krishanleong found in his research. For example, krishan found three of a kind makes up 14.5% of total hands in his database, but I have only 4.06%. Can this be right, or am I not looking at my misc tab correctly?

Also, if you want to see my other stats for these hands here is the link to that thread.

my stats

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

Krishanleong's data was for hands that were not folded. Check the box in the upper right hand corner and then compare.

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

Check the show only hands that were not folded button. Then repost and I will analyse.

Krishan

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check the show only hands that were not folded button. Then repost and I will analyse.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks... It still seems off, but here it is.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/903101/misc1.JPG

Just to mention again, there is a link to my other stats on the original post if you want to reference back to it.

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the show only hands that were not folded button. Then repost and I will analyse.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks... It still seems off, but here it is.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/903101/misc1.JPG

Just to mention again, there is a link to my other stats on the original post if you want to reference back to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 pair W$SD is great
2 pair W$SD is great
trips W$SD is fine
straight + flush + full all winning above 80%. You should have 1 premium every 200 hundred hands. You didn't specify how many hands this was but premiums look good too.

Conclusion, you are running well.

Krishan

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

I'm looking at your post, "How to tell if you are running good or bad (Revised v2)", and the part that says,

"One pair, two pair, three of a kind, straights, flushes and full houses comprise over 93% of money earned. Here is the breakdown in terms of %.

One pair ---- 21.9%
Two pair ---- 24.7%
Three ------- 14.5%
Straight ---- 12.0%
Flush ------- 11.4%
Full House -- 10.7% "

Although I am winning the right % of times when taken to show down, I'm wondering if I'm getting my expected share of 3-of-a-kind and better. Based on your distribution above and the numbers in the right most column of my Misc Tab, am I not getting the expected share? And if I am not getting the right amounts for these hands, then am I not going to show down as often as I would have, thus winning less in total?

Again, my Misc Tab looks like

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/903101/misc1.JPG

These are from 39K hands of party's 5/10 6-max

PT data request
 

Would someone post a screen shot of their Poker Tracker Misc Tab, preferably from Party's 5/10 6-max. If screenshot is cumbersome, typing it out is fine too. What I'm looking for is the numbers in the right most column for each kind of shown down hands. Make sure you check "Show Only Hands That Were Not Folded".

I'm trying to compare my distribution of shown down hands vs what others are getting. I started this thread after finding a post by Krishanleong which I linked in the original post.

Unless, I misunderstood him, he proposes that one indicator of running bad is if you are not winning your fair share with the premium hands. It seems, percentage wise, I'm winning the right amount of times when taken to showdown, but my question to Krishanleong, (which I'm still waiting for a reply from him) is that it seems I am not getting the kind of distribution he showed in his original post. Thus not going to show down as often.

So, I was wondering what some of you other guys are showing for your Misc Tab.

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

I call BS on this whole method of determining running bad or not.

beyond the basic "are your two pair hands losing?" i think this info varies two much depending on playing style--vp$ip and went to showdown percent for it to tell you too much whether or not you are running bad.

I've mentioned this at least two other times in these threads but have never gotten a response. Anyone care to tell me why I'm wrong and those factors dont matter?

over small samples i find pokergrader.com helpful

good luck..keep playing and don't tilt

Re: PT data request
 

You aren't suppose to use the %s to tell if you are running bad. You are only suppose to do what I did. Hell I invented it, I'm pretty sure I'm doing it right.

You are also not suppose to try and analyse you game using this method. Try posting hands if you want to get better. Any more and I'm posting a limerick...

Krishan

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call BS on this whole method of determining running bad or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, Im not sure about the validity of the method, but it would be interesting to see how my distribution of shown down hands compares to those of others. It might not be the perfect indicator, but it should tell if I am getting short changed on certain hands.

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
...it should tell if I am getting short changed on certain hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you care?

If I could magically give you your absolute %100 accurate winrate (as if such a thing existed!) how would that help you? What are you planning to do with this information?

I'm going to go even further, and suggest that your concern over how badly you've run suggests not bad luck but poor play.

/mc

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should have 1 premium every 200 hundred hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure this is a good ballpark estimate. (I know the actual number would be slightly different for each premium hand.)

After 27,666 hands of 10/20 (some full some 6 max), I have had 187 straights, 200 flushes, and 206 full houses. Either I'm running really really really good or premiums should be coming a bit more frequently. (You predict 138 of each.)

Looking just at 6max hands (so there is some overlap with the above numbers), I have played a total of 39,924 hands at 4 different limits (1/2, 5/10, 10/20, 15/30). (But 75% of the hands are from 5/10 and 10/20.) I have had 342 straights, 300 flushes, and 292 full houses. (You predict just under 200 of each.)

I know it's possible to run really good over large samples of hands, but I wonder if the data you used was right and/or your method was reliable.

I would generally say that I am pretty loose in drawing to straights and flushes, meaning that if I err in estimating my implied odds it's probably a bit on the high side. So I might be continuing with a gutshot or a BD flush draw slightly more often than others. I also have a pretty high VPIP (26% at 6max over all four limits), which means I will hit a few more premiums than someone with a 22% VPIP.

So I am a bit skeptical, given my playing style and approach to the game, that I am running as good as you say I am. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn I am running good and making more premium hands than would be expected. Just not as good as you predict I am.

(The other wierd thing is that my premium are almost all as frequent as each other as you predict, and it's very unlikely that all my premiums would occur equally as often if they were all outlying amount. Meaning it's very strange to be running with the same exceptional goodness in all three types of premiums, none running significantly better or worse than the other two -- just all three running really hot.)

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
After 27,666

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this total hands, or the total hands indicated on the misc tab? They are different.

Krishan

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

Yes all figures are total hands, not just total times shown on the Misc Tab. Sorry I didn't make that explicit in the first post.

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes all figures are total hands, not just total times shown on the Misc Tab. Sorry I didn't make that explicit in the first post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, you should only be counting premiums that go to showdown.

Krishan

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]

Why do you care?


[/ QUOTE ]
I care because I'm starting to suspect that I am coming in with a lot more 2nd best hands than usual. So when I read about Krishanleong's method, naturally, I got interested?

[ QUOTE ]

If I could magically give you your absolute %100 accurate winrate (as if such a thing existed!) how would that help you? What are you planning to do with this information?


[/ QUOTE ]
I wans't looking for my absolute winrate.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm going to go even further, and suggest that your concern over how badly you've run suggests not bad luck but poor play.


[/ QUOTE ]
I did consider that, but like I said, you can't help but wonder if you are running bad if all you remember after every session is how more than half your flopped sets ran into a flush or a straight without improving, or how easily those draws come in against you with or without odds, but when you need to hit something, you just can't seem to catch a break.

I am not ignoring the likely possibility that I may be doing something wrong to compound this down streak. Maybe this is something I should've said when I started this thread, but what's with the negativity?

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes all figures are total hands, not just total times shown on the Misc Tab. Sorry I didn't make that explicit in the first post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, you should only be counting premiums that go to showdown.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I am a Dumas. I was counting premiums that saw the flop for some reason. For my ~40K 6 max hands, the corrected figures are:
264 straights, 228 flushes, 229 full houses.

Which suggests I am running good in terms of frequency of premiums, but not absurdly good (well maybe with straights, but I think I recall they are supposed to occur a bit more than 1 in 200 hands). Though I am still showing down about 15% more flushes and full houses than would be expected -- perhaps my loose postflop style has some impact on that (or I am just running that good -- no way to tell from the stats alone).

Sorry for the misunderstanding. Thanks for clarifying.

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

Going through the numbers, my distribution is very consistent with making each premium hand once every 170 dealt hands. Over the 40K sample, that predicts 235 of each premium, whereas it's been 264, 228, and 229. Which makes a bit more sense and doesn't make me feel like my winrate is inflated by 8 BB/100 or something.

Restating my 2nd question, just in case it was missed
 

[ QUOTE ]
You aren't suppose to use the %s to tell if you are running bad. You are only suppose to do what I did. Hell I invented it, I'm pretty sure I'm doing it right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sorry if I misunderstood your approach. You looked at my W$SD and said that it was in line, therefore no anamolies there, and I have no further questions on that point. But my second question to you was on the last column, % of Total Hands.

You said,

"One pair, two pair, three of a kind, straights, flushes and full houses comprise over 93% of money earned. Here is the breakdown in terms of %.

One pair ---- 21.9%
Two pair ---- 24.7%
Three ------- 14.5%
Straight ---- 12.0%
Flush ------- 11.4%
Full House -- 10.7% "

My shown down hands are not distributed like this. Using Flushes as an example, if only 4.87% of my shown down hands are flushes, where as your research found that number to be 11.4%, then am I not missing out?

I understand that winning at above 80% with flushes is good, but if I'm showing down with less flushes, then I'm winning that 80% less number of times.

[ QUOTE ]
You are also not suppose to try and analyse you game using this method. Try posting hands if you want to get better. Any more and I'm posting a limerick...

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what a limerick is, but this is one of the ways I'm trying to analyze my game. I don't want to go tweaking my game if running bad is all it is.

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

You are showing down premium hands less often than me. I am showing each type down about once every 170 hands or so, whereas you're closer to once every 200-210 hands or so.

Some of this is likely running bad. But you have a low WtSD% and a high W$SD%, which suggests to me you may be making bad folds. This could include not taking gutshot draws and BD flush draws into account when deciding what to do on the flop.

So it looks like you are probably running bad, but how much of your bad results it explains is hard to say. Keep posting hands and analyzing your play. Try not to fret over the short-term results, just concentrate on making good winning plays.

Best of luck at the tables!

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
...you can't help but wonder if you are running bad if all you remember after every session is how more than half your flopped sets ran into a flush or a straight without improving, or how easily those draws come in against you with or without odds, but when you need to hit something, you just can't seem to catch a break.


[/ QUOTE ]

If that's what you remember after every session then you are playing poorly. This is precisely my point.

Playing well means after a session you remember the close plays you made and re-think the logic behind your choice and consider if there were better moves. Everyone has a limited amount of time and energy to spend on poker. You are wasting bandwidth, memory, and cycles on meaningless data.

Think about where you want to put your resources, at the table and away.


[ QUOTE ]
...what's with the negativity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's my job to take a bunch of whiny, results-obsessed mama's boys, crush their spirits and destroy their egos, and then sift through the wreckage looking for the raw materials with which to build some cold-blooded, steel-jawed, poker playing men.

DO I MAKE MYSELF UNDERSTOOD?

/mc

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]

DO I MAKE MYSELF UNDERSTOOD?


[/ QUOTE ]
tourettes?

Re: checking to see if running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

DO I MAKE MYSELF UNDERSTOOD?


[/ QUOTE ]
tourettes?

[/ QUOTE ]

A simple "no" would have sufficed.

/mc