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-   -   Close to the bubble hand... (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=301316)

cferejohn 07-26-2005 10:30 PM

Close to the bubble hand...
 
Party Poker $100 buy in tournament. 280 entrants. Down to 41. 30 pay. Villian and I both have about 7.5K here, which is reasonably above average (~6K), and probably enough to limp into the money if that's what i wanted to do. Blinds are 200/400.

I get K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB. Folded to the button who raises to 900. I call. Button seems like a pretty solid player from the little I have seen (we were both recently moved to the table and I saw him double up with KK v. JJ but pretty much anyone is going to double up there). In any case, given his position and the size of the raise, I think this is an automatic call.

Flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving me an open-ended straight draw and the second nut flush draw, plus an overcard. I check. He bets T1100. I've got about 6200 left.

What do you do?

Lloyd 07-26-2005 10:40 PM

Re: Close to the bubble hand...
 
Push. 15 outs to a flush/straight plus an overcard. No question about it.

gobboboy 07-26-2005 10:41 PM

Re: Close to the bubble hand...
 
You're actually not THAT close to the payout if you have 10 people to be eliminated, especially since in high buy in tournaments people will play much tighter than normal. Besides, getting 30th place money is barely worth getting in the tournament, but setting yourself up for a final table finish is worth a risk.

I think the decision here is push or fold, and I would lean towards push. Right now he doesn't have much to figure that you are weak, and you can represent a VERY strong hand by pushing, especially if he views you as tight. You have 6 outs to the nut straight, 9 outs to the second nut flush and in some crazy world a king may be good too.

cferejohn 07-26-2005 11:02 PM

Results
 
I check-raised all-in and got called by KQo. None of my outs hit and I'm done. I didn't think it was that hard of a decision either, but I was curious if anyone was going to advocate just calling the flop bet. Fwiw I was a 55% favorite when the chips went in (no that does not make this a bad beat story [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker $100 buy in tournament. 280 entrants. Down to 41. 30 pay. Villian and I both have about 7.5K here, which is reasonably above average (~6K), and probably enough to limp into the money if that's what i wanted to do. Blinds are 200/400.

I get K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB. Folded to the button who raises to 900. I call. Button seems like a pretty solid player from the little I have seen (we were both recently moved to the table and I saw him double up with KK v. JJ but pretty much anyone is going to double up there). In any case, given his position and the size of the raise, I think this is an automatic call.

Flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving me an open-ended straight draw and the second nut flush draw, plus an overcard. I check. He bets T1100. I've got about 6200 left.

What do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lloyd 07-26-2005 11:14 PM

Re: Results
 
It's a basice Theory of Poker question. Knowing what he had, what was your best decision? Obviously if you can get your chips in as a favorite you'd do that every time.


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