Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I've read several discussions about whether or not the fish will eventually go away. Thats hard to predict, but one that is is clear is that online poker would be an extremely attractive job for individuals in developing countries. This is the one unique chance to participate in the USA/European economy with few barriors to entry. Given that they are willing to work in a factory, as doctors, computer programmers..etc for a fraction of the wage of a USA worker, why wouldn't one expect them to play poker at similar pay scale? Assuming that they required a premium of 100% of their normal job, then the tables would tighten by about 2 levels. E.G. 5/10 would start plaing like 15/30 tables of today..etc. Basically there would have to be a shift down until it no longer became advantageous for them to leave their jobs, where as now (although probably not in equilibruim) its basically limited to the point where USA/European workers find it advantageous. The net impact, based on my guesswork is that the average pro would lose about 50% of his earning ability. Online poker hasn't caught on in south america like it has here, but I see no reason why it won't.

Those fish have less $ to give away while the sharks can consume with the best of them. Globalization of poker, will not be a good thing for current pros in my view.

I had posted this on another forum among peers who I highly respect. They didn't seem to be in agreement with me, so I thought I would seek out more opinions here. Fire away!

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Limit Tables Rate/Hour % of population Foreign Job Muliple of Job Mult after 2 Level Tightening Impact on US Pro
1/2 2 3 13 45.0% $2.8 4.81 2.3 -55.6%
2/4 4 3 22 35.0% $4.0 5.39 2.6 -43.5%
3/6 6 3 30 24.0% $5.9 5.15 2.5 -35.7%
4/8 8 3 39 12.0% $8.5 4.54 2.3 -36.7%
5/10 10 3 47 6.0% $11.9 3.95 2.0 -47.2%
10/20 20 2 61 3.0% $16.7 3.66 1.9 -64.7%
15/30 30 2 89 1.0% $23.3 3.82 1.9 -73.9%
30/60 60 2 173 0.5% $32.7 5.30
60/120 120 2 341 0.3% $45.7 7.46
</pre><hr />

* Included $5 per hour for Rakeback/Bonus
** Percent of population is the percent that is mentally capable of beatting the level, not the percent that I think would beat that level.
*** In reality, I think at equilibrium players would not require a premium to their current job pay rate, do to the flexible life which poker allows.
**** This ignors the obvious tightening of the game due to an improving player base.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Currently developing countries have poor internet access and computers are relatively expensive. But this might change in a few years, so you might be right. It is a funny concept tho....even poker professionals will be outsourced!

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish. I remember keeping 80 cents in Paradise poker and playing the 2 max NL games and turning that into about 60 bucks before I got sick of the game and seeing a bunch of mainland Chinese players who played like super rocks. It was probably because 2 dollars US was the equivalent of 25 dollars US to them...... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
Currently developing countries have poor internet access and computers are relatively expensive. But this might change in a few years, so you might be right. It is a funny concept tho....even poker professionals will be outsourced!

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but the economics are still there to support buying more expensive equipment, you don't even need high end stuff to play poker. Also public internet kiosks/stores are common, these would easily be more profitibable if they were filled with 30 people playing poker 1/2 limit and spitting the winnings, rather than 30 people paying the store 20 cents a minute to surf.

I think it will be exported quickly, unless poker sites segregate the players. I'm hopeful, if the government ever legalizes and regulates the sites, that they require it to be US vs US only.. it even makes sense when one considers that it would limit capital drain from the usa.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

You forget one key point: Most people suck at poker, and always will.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I don't buy the argument that the fish will eventually run out of money.

Tons of suckers go to vegas to play blackjack and slots every year and lose. Yet they go back year after year.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

The race to the bottom will be slow. Many barriers will keep the turd world out of the game for the bulk of this decade at least.

The quantity of collusive cheating will spike as the heat gets turned on and that will kill WRs first. Bots to follow.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
You forget one key point: Most people suck at poker, and always will.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I didn't. I assumed profibility above the rake remained, just at lower magnitudes to to an influx of serious players (sharks) who found playing to be advantageous over their profesional career in a depressed economy. The same thing would happened if every winning USA player decided to play poker rather than have a job. The win rakes would fall like a rock. Luckily many winning players have a greater earnings potential at their real job. This is not the case in other countries.

USA wages are ridiculous compared to those in other countries playing poker should/will be a much more attractive career people in countries with high unemployment in low wages.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
The race to the bottom will be slow. Many barriers will keep the turd world out of the game for the bulk of this decade at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you be willing to name a few of the many?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't buy the argument that the fish will eventually run out of money.

Tons of suckers go to vegas to play blackjack and slots every year and lose. Yet they go back year after year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said they would. I said that, in effect, the number of sharks would increase to a point where the distribution of the fishes money is no longer attractive for the next shark to start playing. This level will be set based on what the lowest shark requires, given the pay differential the shark from the developing countrie will have the lowest requirements. Hence, they replace the USA pro.. or the USA pro accepts lower wages.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

The biggest is the capital requirement. You don't go from dirt poor to DSL fired puter and BR.

There are many cultures where poker as a career would be unthinkable. Think Utah.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
The biggest is the capital requirement. You don't go from dirt poor to DSL fired puter and BR.

There are many cultures where poker as a career would be unthinkable. Think Utah.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are people with capital willing to invest if need be. I saw a site aimed at staking USA citizens, how much cheaper would an Indian or Brazilian be to employ?

And fyi, computers and internet are not uncommon in south america.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

"And fyi, computers and internet are not uncommon in south america. "

As is the Catholic church. Mama won't let Jose grow up to be a gambler.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tons of suckers go to vegas to play blackjack and slots every year and lose. Yet they go back year after year.

[/ QUOTE ]

They also go for shows, meals, etc. Very few of them actually track how much they lose specifically to gambling. Many of them actually delude themselves into thinking they broke even or won a little bit. They can do this because all of their vacation expenses came out of the same pool of money.

Online, the losing player is faced with the prospect of having to refund his account. There is no way he can deny the cold reality that he is a loser, and many of them just quit at that point.

Klingon v Klingon in Semis
 

Tourney 4243060 on Stars to see these warriors battle it out for the final table. I'm in the other game with kfelly

Re: Klingon v Klingon in Semis
 

That battle lasted only a few minutes as Kurn beat AAmazon rather promptly.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

This post is lame. How many times do we have to see the same post over and over? At least this one has a twist in that now people from 3rd world countries are gonna take poker over but still it is the same post that is posted here at least once every 2 weeks. Almost every person in this forum knows current win rates will not last forever, and every time the person that posts this is shocked they did not discover something new. This is like telling a person a wheel is round ... every 2 weeks.

What makes someone think they can turn an army of 3rd world factory workers into winning poker players? Only 8% of the people win as it is. And almost nobody wins when they first start playing. You do realize that they are gonna have to reload their accounts multiple times before they start winning, if they are in fact good enough to be in the 8% that can win. I dont think spending a years salary in an effort to see if you can be sucessful in an area that 92% of people fail is going to attract a ton of poor people.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Like the man said, most people suck at poker.

I have a few friends who play at the B&amp;M on a regular basis, but can't win online.

I'm not worried about my win rate. Being a consistent winner is more difficult than you think.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I see no reason to believe that players from 3rd world countries would be especially strong at poker.

My GF is from South America. In her country of Peru I just don't think it would be very realistic because there is not too much disposable money there. This shouldn't be a surprise.
My GF is a nurse in the U.S. and makes more money than her Dad who is a doctor in Peru.

Her family does have internet though (they IM each other all the time) as do many down there...so they could play if they wanted to I guess.
They also have a couple of casinos in Lima...and I know that a couple of her aunts or cousins or something like to go to one of them occasionally to play 3-card poker or caribbean stud or one of those types of games.

So perhaps there is some disposable income down there where it could actually happen.

I gave some of the free party and stars stuff (sihrts, jackets, hats) to my GF's Mom who passed it around to other family members. So I guess I'm doing my part to promote online-poker in South America!!

Obviously there are some people in some of the wealthier nations who have disposable income. I think Brazil and Argentina qualify. I have met players from both of those countries online before.


But I still don't see why bringing in players from other countries automatically means they won't suck as much as most everyone else does.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

honestly my favorite part of SSH is how [censored] long all of microbob's posts are. love it.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

i think this post is going over peoples h eads. He is not saying players living in bad economies will be better players, he is saying eventually people in mexico and southamerica will discover poker. The crappy players will not play it because they can't afford too. the good players will. Hence the ratio of sharks to fish will increase. the post makes complete sense. I have thought about moving to mexico or costa rica for this exact reason. I can still make 35bucks an hour in costa rica but the cost of living is dramatically less. It will be like I'm making 90 bucks an hour(number pulled out of my ass but you get the gist).

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I've thought about the practicality of this concept some months ago, like many other people. I mean, why can't someone with an internet connection in some 3rd world developing nation just play poker?

I'm sure there's no threat of an influx of these sorts of players. Firstly, there's the whole statistical normal distribution of bad to good players entering. Secondly, much of the poker literature is in English and costs money. (While I am somewhat of exception, I must have invested some 500 or so bucks, probably a little less, into books and software before wagering a nickel.) As others have said, you have to pay for your education some way. Most commonly through the price of books and experience at the tables.

Basic economic laws also apply. If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark. (Not to mention that being a shark is a relative term as well.) It would have to be a proven certainty to a new pool of serious players that they'd be winning.

Then there's the whole cultural thing. Gambling is either a positive or negative thing in many cultures.

Lastly, most people do not have an analytical background, understanding, or even basic education. This is a large barrier for entry. Many people, even in developed nations, do not understand basic mathematic principles. For instance, plenty of people think that if two days have a forecast of 50% rain, they think they have a 100% chance of rain over the two day period. Much of what we learn is actually counterintuitive.

Oh, this is kinduva stupid paranoia thread, btw. Somewhat pointless. I'm not sure why I even thought about it originally...maybe it was because it would be cool to move to country with a much lower standard of living and make a killing with the same "wage". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish.

[/ QUOTE ]
Boy, it really sucks that your opponents no longer have exploitable tendencies. How will you ever make money?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think this post is going over peoples h eads. He is not saying players living in bad economies will be better players, he is saying eventually people in mexico and southamerica will discover poker. The crappy players will not play it because they can't afford too. the good players will. Hence the ratio of sharks to fish will increase. the post makes complete sense. I have thought about moving to mexico or costa rica for this exact reason. I can still make 35bucks an hour in costa rica but the cost of living is dramatically less. It will be like I'm making 90 bucks an hour(number pulled out of my ass but you get the gist).

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it that mexico will have a higher % of people that play and win as compared to any other country? Is it the free copies of SS that poker missionaries are translating to spanish and bringing down there?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You forget one key point: Most people suck at poker, and always will.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I didn't. I assumed profibility above the rake remained, just at lower magnitudes to to an influx of serious players (sharks) who found playing to be advantageous over their profesional career in a depressed economy. The same thing would happened if every winning USA player decided to play poker rather than have a job. The win rakes would fall like a rock. Luckily many winning players have a greater earnings potential at their real job. This is not the case in other countries.

USA wages are ridiculous compared to those in other countries playing poker should/will be a much more attractive career people in countries with high unemployment in low wages.

[/ QUOTE ]

You act like being a winning poker player is like joining the army. You sign your name, take a physical, and get rolling. It does not work like that. Why do you think that 92% of the people lose?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
honestly my favorite part of SSH is how [censored] long all of microbob's posts are. love it.

[/ QUOTE ]


i aim to please.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Anyone into online MMORPGs has probably heard of Lineage 2 and overseas Adena Farming sweatshops. Companies set up labs with dozens of computers and pay people $.50 per hour to play the game and then sell the currency for a large profit. The economy of many foreign countries is so bad that $.50 per hour is actually above average.

There is really nothing (except maybe gambling laws) preventing them from setting up poker sweatshops.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
You forget one key point: Most people suck at poker, and always will.

[/ QUOTE ]

bingo

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Trust me you won't win with worse reads online and ever increasing rake. One thing though the nano limits where you could make more than the average Chinese, Indian worker are profitable enough for them to live on. But an American couldn't do more than earn beer money. So these limits could be their domain...... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]


My GF is from South America. In her country of Peru I just don't think it would be very realistic because there is not too much disposable money there.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got one of dem mail order brides?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something that tends to get overlooked is the fact that most of the sharks are playing anywhere from 4 to 12 tables, and most of the fish are playing one table.

In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.

In online poker, new signups are declining, while the number of multitablers is increasing. The games will get much tougher over the next few years at all limits.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something that tends to get overlooked is the fact that most of the sharks are playing anywhere from 4 to 12 tables, and most of the fish are playing one table.

In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.

In online poker, new signups are declining, while the number of multitablers is increasing. The games will get much tougher over the next few years at all limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good Id rather play decent players.

Atleast I won't get sucked out on as much.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I hope you're being funny but my gut feeling is you aren't trying to be.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hope you're being funny but my gut feeling is you aren't trying to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]

You act like being a winning poker player is like joining the army. You sign your name, take a physical, and get rolling. It does not work like that. Why do you think that 92% of the people lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

This point has been made by a number of posters, and I think it's missing the OPs point completely. Let's assume that 8% of all players today are good enough to beat the games for at least a small amount. This doesn't mean that 92% of todays players are inherently incapable of becoming good poker players, or that if 100 dedicated and smart nigerians decide to try to make a living at poker, 92 of them will fail. Most of the playes today play recreationally, and don't bother much about improving their game, something that the 100 nigerians in my example would probably do.

That said, I don't agree with the OP that this is likely to happen, especially not anytime soon. The reasons for this (lacking funds, education, infrastructure, etc.) has already been elaborated by other posters.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]

In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.


[/ QUOTE ]

Except that we don't then eat the worst fishermen. There the metaphor falls apart.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Great post!! Again a few folks are not following the argument, so to boil it down...

Hypothesis: As online poker becomes more and more available to the third world, the average earn of an online poker player will decrease.

Currently, the average poker player comes from an industrialized nation where the avg wage is much higher than that of the third world.

For a worker in an industrialized nation to take up online poker as a career, his earn should normally be higher than that which he can make outside of poker. The same will hold true for a third world worker.

OP is not saying that third world players will be better... they will simply be satisfied with a far smaller earn, than a worker from the avg industrialized nation.

ie; Adding thousands of happy 0.2 bb/100 winners into online poker is not a good thing for those of us that make far more than that.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

A 0.2 bb/100 player could easily loose even a 2000 bb roll, I would reckon third world players might tighten up the lower limits for a time, because what they can earn there at say 25/50c limit is plenty, this might create its own set of problems for higher limit pros in the west.

Mack

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
Except that we don't then eat the worst fishermen.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is true. They just quit and move on to something else.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

jeez... and I was worried Ljubljana was going to take it all over.

The Chinese and Russians too; where's McCarthy?