10/20 JTo river value bet
 

MP2 is 30/9/1.3 wtsd/w$@sd=32/60 after 500 hands and for the BB I don't have stats but he seemed bad.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, I call, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

This looks standard to me. MP2 limps as many bad J's you beat as ones that beat you (J8/J7 vs QJ/KJ) and while it appears with his showdown stats he might not payoff 9s, your 'bad' read on BB makes this a value bet IMO.

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

I like the thin value bet, as you will often get called by worse hands from the BB and we can't say for sure what MP2 will call with, but probably you'll either get paid off by a worse J or maybe even he will choose not to overcall with JT or QJ in this spot. The latter possibility is not that likely, but given his stats, it isn't totally farfetched.

So all in all, a bet could do a lot of good things. Also, MP2 may notice you value-betting a weak hand on the river and may end up paying off a river value bet from you later that he wouldn't have otherwise.

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

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I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

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imo, preflop is not close.

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

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I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

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Are we saying that it becomes a tougher call for MP to make since he'll most likely be overcalling?

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

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I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

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imo, preflop is not close.

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Jason, if the PF isn't close, you should reexamine your starting values. For me, it is a clear fold as well and not one I would give a second thought to.

I don't like betting this river, but that IS close. There are many hands that have been scared into submission by the flsuh board and while you do get a lot of calls from worse hands, I think you may be surprised by a 2P hand that never raised. Let's not forget that the str8 draw either just got there or just gave someone two pair. This is a close one, but I check this down. Give me KJ/AJ, I think I'll bet it.

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

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I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

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imo, preflop is not close.

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I don't think its that close either, and I wouldn't play it.

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

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Jason, if the PF isn't close, you should reexamine your starting values. For me, it is a clear fold as well and not one I would give a second thought to.

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Would you please elaborate here?

I'm with JT on this one, especially if the players yet to act are not that aggressive PF. It seems like a mid-connector in position to some limpers is pretty nice. Wish I hadn't lost my old db, but I'm quite certain JTo was a winning hand for me in LP over my last couple hundred thousand...not that that means much.

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
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I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

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Are we saying that it becomes a tougher call for MP to make since he'll most likely be overcalling?

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I think that is possible, but I also think most of the value comes from BB calling with a worse hand and MP2 folding a missed draw (QT, KQ, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9, maybe even KT).

That can make betting right even though I don't think we beat half of the hands MP2 calls with. (Betting seems right to me even if we knew that MP2 won't fold a better or chopped hand.)