Betting into a paired flop
 

This is just an example, I don't really want an analysis on just this hand, but a discussion about a weak two pair on a paired flop.

Late in a MTT, I'm the short stack with half of the two villains who have about average (50K). ~60 players left with 50 payouts. My short stack (25K) is at about 5 more rounds (1000-2000, 250 ante or something, don't focus too much on this unless it makes a big difference).

The game is very tight, everyone limps with any pair, AK and whatever they consider playable. I don't think I've seen a limper fold to a reraise preflop yet.

I'm in the big blind with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], two limpers. Not quite what I would call a reraising hand so far, so I check.

The flop comes 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Here is where it gets tricky. I have two pair, a pretty strong hand, but I still don't have a clue to what kind of hand the other players have. They could have any pair, AQ, maybe KQ, though with the tightness of the game I don't think they would call with just a club draw. Might call with AK though.

The pot is 1/3 of my stack or more, so betting about the pot will probably get me one (or two) calls, the all-in might get them to fold.


Now to the question, is this an easy all-in? The two queens makes it pretty unlikely that someone has a queen, but there is still 99-AA out there, and I have no information at all to act upon, which means the other two haven't either, or even less, since I just checked from the BB.

What kind of hand would you need to push this? Say you have 23o in the big blind and the flop is 3-4-4 instead so there are more overpair chances out there, but less likely that someone has the last 4? Where do you draw the line for how strong the hand should be?

To me, this feels pretty read dependent, but given the tight game since I came to the table with pretty much just limpers preflop and then checking down, and given the way the hand played out, there are no reads.
There is a chance to get busted, and I have enough chips to scare people off for a few steals or play another hand, but it has to come soon.

Ideas?