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-   -   Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=23969)

balt999 11-13-2002 04:17 AM

Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice
 
This happened to me at the Mirage on sunday...I was dealt 6c3h in successive hands?? What are the chances of that happening??

Sorry, guys, I mucked both preflop [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

BruceZ 11-13-2002 04:25 AM

Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice
 
1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326.

Dynasty 11-13-2002 06:02 AM

Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice
 
It happens a lot. I'm still waiting for 3 in a row. I have gotten the same hand 3 times within an hour recently


marbles 11-13-2002 11:28 AM

Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice
 
"1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326."
I concur. Note that if you play 1000 hands (which doesn't take all that long, particularly if you're an online player), it most likely WILL happen at least once (p=.53).

BruceZ 11-13-2002 12:57 PM

Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice
 
And if you play 1326 hands, it will happen 63.2% of the time which is approximately
1 - 1/e since (n-1)/n is approximately 1/e for large n.

11-13-2002 02:39 PM

what\'s the approximation???
 
Bruce,
what's the relationship you're using? I'd just like to know, since it's obviously not (n-1)/n approx 1/e for large n.

BruceZ 11-13-2002 03:34 PM

Re: what\'s the approximation???
 
Oops, sorry. Make that [(n-1)/n]^n = 1/e for large n. This is the probability of something not happening in 1/p tries if the probability of it happening each try is p. So in this case we have (1325/1326)^1326 = 36.8% = probability of not getting 2 in a row in 1326 tries.

King_J 11-17-2002 02:01 PM

3 in a row
 
Happend to my friend when he was playing on true poker.


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