Two Plus Two Older Archives - Confidence intervals for sngs??

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Mr_J	12-20-2005 03:52 AM

Confidence intervals for sngs??

I'm sure someone out there has a formula that I can plug some numbers into.

I'm particuarly interested in this for HU sngs, which would naturally be measured in winrate %.

Eg say I win 60% over 200 hu sngs with a std dev of .95 buyins, 95% chance I'm between XX% winner and YY% winner...

pzhon

12-20-2005 10:11 AM

Re: Confidence intervals for sngs??

[ QUOTE ]
say I win 60% over 200 hu sngs with a std dev of .95 buyins, 95% chance I'm between XX% winner and YY% winner...

[/ QUOTE ]
A win rate of 60% corresponds to a SD of sqrt(.6 * .4)=49%. After n tournaments, the SD of your observed win rate will be 49%/sqrt(n). One rough 95% confidence interval is 60%+-2 standard deviations.

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