Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

Hope this turns out, as I did it by hand....

MP1 is a loose calling station. He rarely calls to the river without at least a pair, though.

BB is relatively tight and passive.

The only reason I'm posting this is because I'm not sure if I'm thinking about my odds correctly. I've been readin the books, and the posts, and I'm trying to put it into practice. Please be critical.

Caribbean Sun .25/.50 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is sb with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 limps, UTG+2 limps, MP1 limps, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Seems ok to complete here...

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls, 2 folds.

I'm thinking I can hit an ace, a four, or a 3 and take this pot. I know I'm getting 6 to 1 pot odds, and if I've counted my outs correctly I've got 10 outs, or a little less than 4 to 1 odds to hit. Right?

Turn: (4 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

Again, I think I'm getting 5-1 pot odds versus 4 to 1 to hit. So I call.

River: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Suddenly, my odds drop to 0.12%.

Final Pot: 7 BB

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

you want to hit a 4 and dodge another pair, such as kings to win? and you think that your ace is really going to win the pot with that kicker? I do not think you can count the ace as 3 full outs, the four has 3 full outs, or the 3 as 3 full outs.

i might peel that flop but not the turn...

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

i assuming you mean an ace, a four, and a TWO.

if any of those cards win you the pot, then yes, you have 10 outs. and yes, you are thinking about it somewhat correctly in that if the pot offering you 6:1 on a 4:1 shot you should call...

but do you really have 10 outs???

do you really think a pair of fours will win all the time?
if an ace falls, will you be outkicked and lose anyway?

because those 6 outs (3 fours, and 3 aces) are somewhat tainted (as in, even if you hit them you might lose) -- you need to discount them a little bit.

i'd say maybe you could give yourself about 2 outs worth of outs instead of 6. (about half for the aces, 1.5 instead of 3, and about nothing for the fours -- but if you must, lets say 0.5 at most)

now you can add the gutshot outs (four twos), so maybe you have about 6 total outs.

6 outs is requires a bigger pot... i'd fold the flop.

ok. i typed this out and then read your read on MP1. so since he's betting he likely has a pair...and if he has a pair, he likely can beat a pair of fours...so forget about the fours as being outs at all.

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems ok to complete here...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is nowhere near the most important decision in this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking I can hit an ace, a four, or a 3 and take this pot. I know I'm getting 6 to 1 pot odds, and if I've counted my outs correctly I've got 10 outs, or a little less than 4 to 1 odds to hit. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean an ace, a 4 or a 2. And of those, the only one you can give full outs to is the 2, as your ace is likely to be dominated, any opponent has outs against your 4, and the ace and 4 also put 3 to a straight on the board. So, I give you 4 outs for the gutshot 2, .5 for the aces, and maybe .25 for the fours, giving you fewer than 5 outs. Fold the flop.

The rest of the hand plays differently from there [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

(Edited to fix my uber-crap math error.)

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking I can hit an ace, a four, or a 3 and take this pot. I know I'm getting 6 to 1 pot odds, and if I've counted my outs correctly I've got 10 outs, or a little less than 4 to 1 odds to hit. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're overestimating the outs. Do you really think a pair of 4's will win this hand for you? The could help someone on a straight draw.

Not saying it's likely, but you have to take into account someone limped with the likes of A9 or A5, which would taint the A outs.

So lets take your gutshot outs and the discount the A outs a bit, give you 6 outs, which would make the flop call thin.

By the way I usually don't make that call pre-flop, but on a table like this maybe its not bad?

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

Of all the hands I pick to post, it had to be this one.

Ok, I'm an idiot. For some reason I was thinking I had a draw to two pair. I may have even copy/pasted the wrong hand.

Any way, yeah, I should've folded this on the flop.


My apologies.

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

No apologies needed. You counted all the outs that would IMPROVE your hand. But you need to think about the outs that will improve your hand to a WINNING hand.

Keep up the study and posting.

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

Thanks for the replies.

Should I post this type of hand here, or in the beginners forum, or either?

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not saying it's likely, but you have to take into account someone limped with the likes of A9 or A5, which would taint the A outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

At .25/.50? It's beyond likely. In this case, it should be treated as a near-certainty, because, if nobody did limp with ace-rag and an ace falls everybody will fold to Hero's bet, so his implied odds are in the dumper.

Re: Counting outs at the remedial level.
 

Shameless plug: If you're looking for some long, tedious, mind numbing out counting exercises, I wrote a quiz a few months ago here.