Re: Fold AA preflop
 

LOL, him being a maniac makes AA ever MORE powerful.

Re: My Reasoning Why You Should Fold In This Situation
 

Chip leader is a "maniac." I won't discuss the general lameness of another "should I fold AA" thread, but I did want to point out that if the Chip leader is splashing then the short stacks both have a great chance of doubling up off of him.

If the SB doubles up you are still at 1800 and he has 1400. Well, now it's basically a coinflip for 2nd.

Double up to 3600 and we can talk about being assured (or at least much more likely) of 2nd place.

Hmm, I wonder how you could double up to over 3k?

WJ

Re: My Reasoning Why You Should Fold In This Situation
 

This is wrong on many fronts.

for one, and it's been pointed out by others, by folding you are falsely assuring yourself of 2nd. I would say with under 2K chips second will happen maybe 50% of the time.

If the 2 short stacks go in against each other, the winner would be about equal to you in chips. Then he doubles up against the maniac, and your the short stack.

That plus - what if you have AQ, and the short stack doubles through you? now you might be out 4th.

Finally under the circumstances that you play AA and double up vs. the maniac - are you saying that you aren't better than him, and given close to equal stacks will only win the % of times compared to current stack sizes?

I would be very confident that with a 40/60 stack against a maniac heads up I would be able to win 60-65% of the time

AA vs. 99
 

I think you might have been influenced by your results here, although we don't know how you got busted. AA is a very different hand from 99. 99 is a great hand to go in on if you need to steal the blinds, as if called by two overcards you are still a favorite and the chances of one of the remaining three players having an overpair (TT+) are pretty small. But it isn't such a good idea if you just want to stay alive, as it has a 45% chance of busting vs. two overcards (which the maniac could have). Now, if you fold 99, and the smallest stack folds, within the next hand or two he is going to be forced in and probably play against the best of the three other hands, and probably bust. And if he doesn't, there are still two relatively small stacks that you are twice the size of, and you can fold for a while and hope that the maniac busts one of them first.

Now, with AA, I'd go all in if I *knew* the maniac would call. If I didn't, I might raise to 600 and try to induce some more action.

Technically, btw, I think it is incorrect to say if you don't play AA *here* you won't play anything. Obviously, if positions were rearranged and the two small stacks had both gone all in and you were the small blind, it might well make sense to go in over the top of them with AA, as it's unlikely you'd get anything less than 3rd even if the big stack called. Being UTG is more perilous, because of the chance you get matched up evenly against the big stack.

Re: Fold AA preflop
 

Fold AA preflop

God, has it been 3 weeks. time flies by.

Re: Fold AA preflop
 

THIS IS THE WORST THREAD IN HISTORY

Re: AA vs. 99
 

Thanks for actually giving a thoughtful response (in contrast to many others...).

My main point was that tournament math is VERY different than ring-game math, and I wanted to show it with a concrete example. One can quibble over the precise probabilities (e.g. some posters correctly point out that saying you get to 2nd 100% of the time is too optimistic), but the key point is that in a ring-game the only challenge with AA is how to get as much out of it in EV terms as possible, since you have the best hand PF.
In a tourney, the value of AA is vastly different depending on how big your stack is, who your opponent is, how large the blinds are, how many players are left, how steep the payout gradient is, etc. etc.

The biggest thing I learned from doing the math is that in SNG the difference between 1st & 2nd is 20% payout (50% VS 30%), and the difference between 2nd & 4th is 30%. In thinking about a play near the bubble, it is simply incorrect to repeat the matra of "gotta go for 1st" That may be true in big tourneys where the payouts for 1st/2nd are proportionately so much bigger. In SNG's, putting yourself unnecessarily at risk of blowing 2nd just to improve your chances of getting 1st is questionable and depends on all the factors above.

BTW, the hand I busted out in was 99 vs KQo. In hindsight, I now believe the best play was to come in for 600 as you suggest. You still have a pretty good chance of stealing the blind, but you don't risk the doomsday scenario of being out right away.

Re: AA vs. 99
 

Please stick to play money.

Re: Fold AA preflop
 

If you fold here you are a weak player and it’s the worst advice ever. This example is not even close to being a good fold.

Have you thought about the fact that by focusing on this ridiculous question of folding AA preflop you are missing an opportunity to plug other, much larger holes in your game? (and we all have holes in our game)

--Greg

Re: Fold AA preflop
 

This must be a joke and if it's not than you should quit playing poker. If this is any example of your typical thought process during a hand, you must be losing money by the fistful.