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-   -   Is raising pre-flop with JJ at micro-limits +EV? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=393225)

12-07-2005 04:24 AM

Is raising pre-flop with JJ at micro-limits +EV?
 
I play almost exclusively at .25/.50 and .50/$1 limits. My pfr% is only around 4, and I'm wondering if it should be higher. Here is a specific case in question: I often do not raise pre-flop with JJ in MP or LP in loose games where I think I'll have, say, four or more callers. My reasoning is that with that many callers I am bound to be up against one or more A, K or Q, since players at these limits will often play any Ax or Kx or even Qx, and will often call or even cold-call a pfr with those hands. An A, K or Q (and no J) comes on the flop exactly 59% of the time. So, am I wrong or right to think that a pfr with JJ under these conditions is not +EV?

Siegmund 12-07-2005 05:56 AM

Re: Is raising pre-flop with JJ at micro-limits +EV?
 
Yes, raising JJ is very +EV, at any limit in any position. In most games where money is flowing freely it's even a reraising hand.

You gave the reason yourself: an A, K, or Q comes 59% of the time. That means you are expecting to be ahead on the flop 41% of the time, but only putting in 25%, 20%, or 16% of the money, if it's a 4- 5- or 6-handed flop.

That's a slight over-simplification - there are ways to lose with an overpair - but if you win even 30% of the time you are showing a BIG long-run profit.

AaronBrown 12-07-2005 11:41 PM

Re: Is raising pre-flop with JJ at micro-limits +EV?
 
In addition to Siegmund's excellent answer, I'd add that your logic is reversed.

The fact that people with weaker hands are likely to outdraw you is an argument to raise or fold, not call. If people are going to try their luck with Ax or suited connectors, you need to get their money before they find out if they hit. If they don't hit you'll never get it afterwards, and if they do, you'll lose.

12-08-2005 11:23 AM

Re: Is raising pre-flop with JJ at micro-limits +EV?
 
Your pfr should be closer to 10%, check out the micro-limit forums to find out why.


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