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-   -   J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=392043)

Roadstar 12-05-2005 06:12 PM

J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
Pokerroom 2/4 hand - (converter not working, doing it myself)


Reads - don't remember hard stats but CO is relatively solid TAG type, Button is more like a 25/10 slight loose aggressive type, no read on MP3

Preflop - Hero with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP2

Questionable open limp but I can't seem myself raising I guess I should have folded this, table VPIP was btwn 25 and 30, PFR of like 5-6%.

Folds to Hero, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button cold calls, Blinds fold, Hero calls MP3 calls.

Flop 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero check, MP3 bets, CO raises, Button cold calls, Hero Calls, MP3 folds.

Monotone flop I think I'm ahead here but I check because spade draws are betting and raising here. I wait till a non-spade turn to bet when my equity increases.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero Bets, CO calls, Button raises, Hero calls, CO calls

I donk the turn here on a non-spade, button's raise suprises me, it could be KQ or AK I suppose. Do you call the raise here? I think I have 2 J outs, 2 9 outs, 3 T outs (all non-spade of course, maybe discount the 3 T outs a little more)? I call the raise.

River T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I river the straight. Donk again or C/R or C/call to get overcall from CO?

Hero Checks???

Villain(s) river play will be posted later.

Thanks guys!

Roadstar 12-05-2005 07:35 PM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
any takers?

shark6 12-05-2005 07:49 PM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
My head hurts trying to follow this action. Here are my thoughts in random order:

Ya, PF call is a little thin.

I'd fold the flop when it's 2 back to you because I'm not sure you really are ahead and when behind you have like 3 outs plus you have to dodge another spade plus the PF raiser isn't going to give you any free cards.

Even if you are ahead you'll get drawn out on fairly often.

Coming alive against a PF raiser and a flop better into PF raiser with an overcard to your pair and 3 to a suit on the board is spewing.

Edit: You also look like the meat in a raise sandwidch.

Roadstar 12-05-2005 08:01 PM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
[ QUOTE ]
My head hurts trying to follow this action. Here are my thoughts in random order:

Ya, PF call is a little thin.

I'd fold the flop when it's 2 back to you because I'm not sure you really are ahead and when behind you have like 3 outs plus you have to dodge another spade plus the PF raiser isn't going to give you any free cards.

Even if you are ahead you'll get drawn out on fairly often.

Coming alive against a PF raiser and a flop better into PF raiser with an overcard to your pair and 3 to a suit on the board is spewing.

Edit: You also look like the meat in a raise sandwidch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats hard to follow? I've typed everything out in order.

I guess the flop is the key here, I do think I'm head and if a non-spade falls on the turn, then a flush draw is only going to win 20% of the time. I'm not saying I'm an 80% favorite but my pot equity would probably be great better than 1 in 3. Of course the high card is a problem.

Should I check/fold a broadway, ace or spade on the turn and donk any other card?

Given how the hand played out - what about the river here?

Thanks

Nick C 12-05-2005 08:46 PM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
I think your chances of being ahead on the flop are a lot better before you see the action than they are after you see it. The bet, raise, cold-call sequence indicates some people seem to like their hands.

In any event, AA-77 is 36 combos for CO. A range of ATs+, KJs+, QJs will give him 7 combos of flopped flushes. Meanwhile, AK/AQ/AJ/KQ is 56 non-flush combos. I don't know CO's exact range, but he'll often have overs + a flush draw when you're ahead of him, so it's not like I'm in love with my hand on the flop, even against just him. (You're roughly a coin flip versus A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], at this point.)

Once the action gets back to you on the flop, you're kind of hoping MP3 was betting a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] into the PFR (or maybe T9), CO was autoraising A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and Button is cold-calling because he has a ten (or, even better for you, a 6). It's possible, but it seems like a lot to ask for. Nevertheless, I would probably call, getting about 14:2, not closing the action, based on the possibility that I'm ahead and the murky outs I have if I'm behind.

I wouldn't lead on the turn, since the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could easily be a card somone was drawing to and other kings could be out there and I'm not so confident I was even ahead on the flop. After I checked, I think I'd call one back to me but not two.

On the river, I think I like leading on this super-scary board, as I can see it getting checked through if I'm ahead. However, I'm not really going to like it if I get raised, because then I'll figure I'm chopping at best. And if it gets raised and then 3-bet, I guess I'd probably grudgingly fold. (We're only getting about 5:2 if we're hoping for a 3-way chop. I doubt there will be a 3-way chop, but if the river action happens to go bet, raise, 3-bet, I think there's a good chance we're beat. Button may have flopped a flush.)

After you check, I'm not really sure what you should do. If CO bets, you're probably chopping with him, so I guess maybe you can checkraise if Button just calls. If CO checks and Button bets, I think I'd go for an overcall, though a case could be made (I think) for checkraising anyway. If there's a bet and then a raise, I'm thinking folding is probably best.

Anyway, it is a very uncomfortable and difficult hand.

Siegmund 12-06-2005 02:36 AM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
I will limp with this as long as I have a fair shot at not getting raised. I would be happier if I had limpers ahead of me. Preflop isn't the end of the world though.

I am happily letting this go for two bets on the flop. You DID get raised and coldcalled preflop (there are plenty of overpairs possible); if any spade any size comes you are dead (that's 1/3 of the time) even if you aren't already; a safe ten coming might only be a split; etc etc etc. There is simply nothing good that can happen to your hand short of a runner runner full house.

You like the king? why? Didn't anyone who raised but didn't already have an overpair just get one? The one thing that DOESN'T surprise me is that you got popped back on the turn.

Looks like an extremely expensive hand to me 90% of the time.

12-06-2005 04:00 AM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
[ QUOTE ]
any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]
You should bet this river. This a a very scary board for anyone who doesnt have a straight or a flush, so you cannot expect a worse hand to bet this for you. So if you check here, most of the time what will happen is it will get checked around, and the times someone does bet, they will either have you tied or beaten. So you must bet to pick up those crying calls all the times you are ahead here. If you are raised on the river, I would make a crying call.

Roadstar 12-06-2005 12:21 PM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
Wow thanks for the great analysis guys! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

So it looks like preflop is questionable

flop should probably fold (call is thin to marginal?) - primarily because of the raise and cold call. I usually fold a hand like this on the flop but I've seen too many times jackasses bet and raise on the flush draw and checks on the river when nothing comes.

Turn - Check call at most, no donking with the K. How about a non-spade lower than 9?

River - Bet out



Anyway, here's what happened:

River - Hero Checks, CO Checks, Button Checks

MHIG, CO shows A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in disgust (pokerroom doesn't show called hands that lost unless the user chooses to), Button Mucks.

Thanks for your help guys - this hand irritated me because I put money in when I was probably behind or drawing very thin. And when I got lucky (which I shouldn't count on it), I missed the river bet... argh...

12-06-2005 02:06 PM

Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments
 
I feel like a fold on the flop is really easy...


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