Torn on the river
 

This was at a live game. .5/1 nl, 5-handed. Villain is aggressive and a good player, he plays just about any hand preflop, and somehow tends to win. He's that good postflop. Table is ultra aggressive. I have everyone covered, with about $250. everyone else has about $100.

Hero is UTG+1 (cutoff) with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Folds to hero.
Hero raises to $4, only big blind calls.

Flop is 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Pot $8.50)
Villain bets $5, Hero reraises to $15, Villain thinks and calls.

Turn 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot $38.50)
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain bets $20, Hero ?

I am not sure what to do here. He's bet half the pot when I hit my draw. If I call his bet, I am probably missing a lot of value from straights and 2 pairs. However, if I reraise and he shoves, it'll be tough to tell wether he has me beat. Keep in mind villain and I have been in a lot of pots together with a lot of action (for example, I called his pot-sized bet on the river a few hands ago with bottom pair and won).

Edit: If I raise and he puts me on a flush, I wouldn't put it past him to shove knowing I know he knows that's most likely what I have.
Also, villain's stack was more like 150. He has plenty to push me around with.

Re: Torn on the river
 

bump

Re: Torn on the river
 

I won't make it that hard on myself and just call in this case with the board paired and you having a 9 high flush. Probably the weak, -EV play though.

Re: Torn on the river
 

if he's that much of a maniac just call here and wait for a better spot to totally stack him

regards

Re: Torn on the river
 

If villain is so tricky I would just call. You dont want to play your whole stack here when you dont have to.

Cheers!

Ojo_Rojo

Re: Torn on the river
 

Just call. My guess is that he's showing kings or jacks up. Your flush isn't fantastic...it's like the 4th to the nuts and the board is paired. That said, you're probably good 1/3 of the time, which is what you need anyways. With those odds, a raise is likely only going to be called by a better hand and that's bad news all around.

Re: Torn on the river
 

I agree w/ the sentiment that by just calling you feel like you lose out on value, but you would just want to puke if he comes back over the top. Given the action it looks like he is showing down a King, but I would lean towards a call.

Re: Torn on the river
 

How is it that one precisely determines what percentage of the time you need to be good to profit? in this hand he put in roughly half of an 80$ pot if he calls the river.

Cambraceres

Re: Torn on the river
 

If villan is tricky/good, I just call here. If hes a super LAG/maniac, I'd be more inclined to raise the river.

Re: Torn on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
How is it that one precisely determines what percentage of the time you need to be good to profit? in this hand he put in roughly half of an 80$ pot if he calls the river.

Cambraceres

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not what he put in so far, it's what he has to put in at the end. What is already in the pot is no longer his.

After the turn card, there was ~40 in the pot. Villian put another 20 in, totalling 60. He needs to put 20 in, so he's looking at 60-20, or 3-1 pot odds. He has to be a 3-1 dog to break even over the long haul, and better than 3-1 to show a profit.