Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

UTG+2 opens, HJ 3-bets, I cap JJ in the BB. No real read on my opponents, but I have been playing fairly tight. I had not seen the HJ 3-bet preflop before, so I'm not quite sure of his 3-betting range. Does this look like a scared QQ?

UTG+2 folds and its heads up to the flop of K99 rainbow. I bet he calls. Turn is a 7. I bet he calls. River is a T. And the river line is...

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

You're only ahead of AQ here and I don't think he has that very often. He also appears to be calling you down, fearing AA, KK or AK. He usually has QQ. Getting ~9:1, I would probably check/call and wish I had check/folded.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that. But I'm not very optimistic. I think Villain probably either has QQ or even AK (he could be scared of AA) or is slowplaying.

You probably won't get a bet out of AQ no matter what you do. But I'd be choosing between bet-folding (hoping Villain will call with AQ or a stubbornly played pocket underpair) or check-calling (hoping he'll bluff if checked to).

Edit: Oops, I got the sequence of cards mixed up.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that.

[/ QUOTE ]

The ten came on the river.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is ahead of TT on the turn, so it 28:11

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is ahead of TT on the turn, so it 28:11

[/ QUOTE ]

If we decide to call down on the turn because of this we have to keep in mind that we are getting 10.5:2 to call down. imo if he has AQ/TT he is not betting the turn so if the turn goes check/bet the likelihood that we are behind is higher.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

The math I posted is for the river, not the turn.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.