Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

I would like to nominate Mike Caro - who I have a lot of time for. I think he is a genuine authority with a lot of subtle advice on offer. However, in his much under-rated tome, Caro's Fundamental Secrets Of Winning Poker, he suggests that in Five Card Draw you should not play open-ended straight draws because either you will not make them or you will make them and be beaten out of the pot by flush draws that got there. I did the calculations for this. Having a straight draw up against a flush draw, and having both hit, the odds are astronomical. You are more likely to see a cigar act in the Oval Office. Poor advice. Play your four straights, if you've got the pot/implied odds.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

Based on what? As an absolute guess, I would estimate that the odds of you making an open ended straight draw while someone at a loose 8 handed table makes a 4 flush to be about 30-50:1. This based on my playing experience and general card knowledge only.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

The all time worst has got to be Cloutier and McEvoy saying in limit holdem they'd rather play their 78 offsuit than suited because they can get into too much trouble when they make a non-nut flush.

Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

The first parlay required is that of a four straight being dealt alongside a four flush in a single deal. The odds of being dealt a four straight are 1/6, whilst it is 1/23 for a four flush, giving 1/6 x 1/23= 1/138.

The second parlay needed is that of both hands filling simultaneously. The chance of filling your open-ended four straight is 8/47, whilst the chance of filling a four flush is 9/47, this gives 82/2207. You will both fill 3.71545% of the time. Let us round this up to 1/25. This is the second step of the equation.

The third step is to multiply 1/138 by 1/25, giving us 1/3450.

So, Mike Caro is asking us not to play open-ended four straights because of a 1/3450 danger of making our hand and not having it stand up. A little too cautious, methinks.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

If I remember correctly he adds the caveat (which you left out) that you will not get paid off when you bet your one card draw and the flush draw misses but will lose two bets when they hit. This makes it a no-brainer and pretty solid advice if you are familiar with 5 card draw. Also I believe he at least infers that this is only against another 1 card draw.

Of course Mike supposedly lost his butt at 5 card draw in Gardenia so what do I know! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of being dealt a four straight are 1/6, whilst it is 1/23 for a four flush

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no logical sense at all.

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

Hi Al:

Your logic is flawed, and I don't think that you have played much draw poker. You're looking at the hand from the start, not from when you might make the decision.

In jacks-or-better draw poker (played with a joker) drawing hands can't come in until there is an opener. Since the opener is most likely in from a late position (due to sandbagging and weaker opening requirements) it's often pretty clear that there are other draws out, which usually means flush draws. So the decision is often whether to play a straight draw given that flush draws are already in.

Furthermore, you should only look at the decision from the point of view that you make your straight. When that's the case, does the flush draw hurt you. The answer is yes since he'll be getting proper pot odds on his draw. In addition, draw poker, unlike games like hold 'em, is a game of relatively small pots. That means without the flush draw in there your hand is only marginally correct. Now add in the flush draw, and it can swing it to a fold.

By the way, if you hold the joker, and now have either a 12 or 16 way hand, that can also change things to a call.

Best wishes,
Mason

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

Hellmuth's new book gives a list of ten hands (if i recall, in this order: AA KK QQ AK JJ TT 99 AQ 88 77). he says these are the top starters in HoldEm, in that order, and that you should play *only* them in NL games. of course, he's talking to beginning players. but still. that's a little tight, methinks. can you win in NLHE playing only those hands against thinking opponents? won't they stop putting money in the pot once they figure out this strategy (which won't take too long)?

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

Hi Baggins:

I thought this advice came from his beginner chapter in his limit section.

best wishes,
Mason

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

The whole problem assumes you already have a straight draw. You can't ask "what are the chances that both a straight draw and a flush draw will be dealt in one deal?" That's irrelevant. You have to ask now that I've got my straight draw, what are the chances that someone else has is drawing to a flush, and proceed from there.

For a similar example, imagine you are playing heads up NL against a solid opponent and and are dealt pocket kings. You raise, get reraised, reraise, and he goes all-in. It looks like he has aces, and you wonder what the chance of his being dealt aces are. Now the chances of someone being dealt aces and their opponent kings in a single deal in a heads up game are pretty low; at a (total) guess, around 5000-1. But you can't say well it's 5000-1 against that he would have been dealt aces, because (ignoring the fact that other information - ie his betting - says he does have aces), you know the kings have been dealt. There's 100% chance you've been dealt kings; the only question is what are the chances the opponent has been dealt aces on that deal, which are the same as they always are (well slightly better, as 2 non-ace cards have already been accounted for), around 220-1.

Similarly taking a bomb on an aeroplane won't reduce the chance that someoneon else will bring a bomb on-board, despite the fact that it's incredibly unlikely that two people will independently bring bombs aboard the same plane.

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

nicky once you are dealt kings in a ten handed game the odds are only about 24.5 to one that one of the other players will have pocket aces.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

it definitely came from the beginners limit section.

however, i would say that telling beginners to 3-bet with 77 is not such a hot idea. although not the worst advice in print.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

Hi tpir90036:

While three betting with 77 may not be the worse idea in print. Calling with AQ when it has already gone to three bets (or more) is terrible. Do you see why?

Best wishes,
Mason

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

hello mr. malmuth! love your work. anyway...

i will go out on a limb and say that there is a very good chance you are dominated already. AA, KK, QQ or AK is probably in your future [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] and you are still (slightly) behind even if it's "just" JJ, TT....

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

you missed in your division. since there are 2 Ks gone, its 4/50*3/49 which is closer to 1 in 200, slightly better than the usual 1 in 221.

Sorry Wake Up CALL No Caveat In The Text *NM*
 

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your logic is flawed, and I don't think that you have played much draw poker. You're looking at the hand from the start, not from when you might make the decision.


[/ QUOTE ]

Mason, you are correct on both counts. I see Mike's advice in a new light now. It does not seem as bad as I thought and if I look at it closer it may even be correct.

A small quibble: Mike's text made it read as though the idea was for Draw Poker Anything Opens not Jacks Or Better, nor does he mention the Bug. However, your analysis is much appreciated.

You Are Quite Correct nicky g
 

To use terminology that Norman Zadeh would endorse, I am using an uninformed strategy when an informed strategy is available.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

Replies to my post have made me realise that Mike Caro's advice is not the blunder I originally thought it was. My thanks to all who contributed.

Caveat Clarified
 

The caveat mentions no lost bets through the failure of opponents to call when you hit (and I am thinking about the others not the busted flush draw) but does acknowledge your lost bets when you cannot escape from your hand. Caro also reverts to argument by assertion, he often does this in Caro's Fundamental Secrets Of Winning Poker, X is as I say it is because X just is that way.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

Mason,

you could certainly be right. i only browsed his book when i was at Borders the other day. i seem to recall the same advice given in both the NL and Limit sections. but perhaps i am not remembering correctly.

either way, Limit or No Limit, aren't you playing too tight if you only play with those hands and stick rigidly to it?

i mean, KQs in a multiway pot for one bet is waaaaay better than 77 in a reraised pot from the SB, no? forget about which 'animal' raised and reraised. the odds just ain't there to play on.

and i'd much rather play 77 to a decent size preflop raise if the bettor has a deep stack. if i hit my set, i can hopefully take down more than the current pot. a lot more.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

Aye it does, for NL he opens it up to include all pocket pairs.

Re: Caveat Clarified
 

Thanks for the correction Al, I was quoting from memory but was pretty sure he considered the extra bets lost when you make your straight.

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

[ QUOTE ]
you missed in your division. since there are 2 Ks gone, its 4/50*3/49 which is closer to 1 in 200, slightly better than the usual 1 in 221.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct, this makes it even more likely you are against an AA. Closer to 22 to 1 with the correction provided by BigLick.

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

Hi Al:

He may have been talking about an anything opens game, but usually draw was played in public cardrooms with a bug and it was jacks-or-better. In any case, the same logic still applies.

Best wishes,
mason

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

to be fair, Hellmuth does not recommend calling when it's three bets to you with AQo, he recommends taking it to four bets.

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

Yeah but I state that the conditions are heads-up.

Re: Vehn, You Need A Double Parlay
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah but I state that the conditions are heads-up.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you did!

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

I have seen Mr. Hellmuth make similar dreadful calls in online limit ring games(calling 3 bets with A7 suited).

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

really? i saw him make it four bets with A8 once. maybe the 8 kicker is his cutoff for a cap.

then again, the money in an 80/160 game probably means about as much to him as a .25/.50 game does to us.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

The money must mean something to him or else why would he be a shill for a broken down web site like UB or hawking a book with dubious advice at best.

Re: Worst Advice By An Expert In Print
 

In a word, no. Not in the $2/4 games that I find here in Calif. I have been using those hands for a long time now and when I do call, no one notices. I'll ram & jam w/ Blk prs., Blk & Red prs., Red & Blk prs, but only just call w/ RED prs.