100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($92.00)
Button ($88.00)
SB ($138.00)
Hero ($320.00)
UTG ($99)
UTG+1 ($150.00)
MP1 ($110.00)
MP2 ($86.00)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($10.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, UTG calls $8.

Turn: ($26.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, UTG calls $15.

River: ($56.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $50</font>, Hero calls $25.

I can get away from a raise on the turn but not a size raise on the river it seems. I can also slow down on the turn but I put my opponent on an overpair so I wanted value. Villain could've simply had an overpair or a busted draw but then maybe they would've bet more than the minimum.

Any thoughts on this?

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

I'll check/call the river. other than that. fine.

Edit: reason being you are OOP with an overpair, and you don't want to be facing a raise on the river.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

Check call the river seems optimal...but as played I would fold to the min river raise, why is he going to wait to min raise the river with just an overpair ? He has to know what you have by now if he is good like you said. 67s ships just came in too. No one is bluff raising the river with a min raise, he is sucking value you out of you because he knows what you have and knows that you will call.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

I smell a set. If I spiked a set on a board like that in a raised pot I'd play it the same way villain did.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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I'll check/call the river. other than that. fine.

Edit: reason being you are OOP with an overpair, and you don't want to be facing a raise on the river.

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Out of curiousity, what are you putting villian on here? If you check/call the river on this board, what do you need to bet? A set or better? Seems too weak to me...

As played, looks fine.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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I'll check/call the river. other than that. fine.

Edit: reason being you are OOP with an overpair, and you don't want to be facing a raise on the river.

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Out of curiousity, what are you putting villian on here? If you check/call the river on this board, what do you need to bet? A set or better? Seems too weak to me...

As played, looks fine.

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it's not weak to not fire three times with an overpair

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

So we think UTG must have a set here?

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

Also, he could have 88, 99, TT and put you on ace-high... unfortunately the 88 catches up with you. Your bets are not pot sized, therefore could be interpreted as weak... but I have no idea how much you've been betting in the past.

I do note that as the streets go on, you bet a lower and lower percentage of the pot.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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if you check/call the river on this board, what do you need to bet? A set or better? Seems too weak to me...

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TPTK and overpairs need only two value bets without a read. For exactly reasons like this.


Edit: you dont want to play a big pot oop with unimproved overpair. In position you can value bet that river or call if bet to.

Edit2: it should be obvious why you dont want to play big pots oop with vulnerable hands..

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

Getting raised on the river sucks, still gotta call tho. Check call river is ok, but I think its more optimal to just fire 3 barrels on a board like this.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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So we think UTG must have a set here?

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we think a bing range of what he calls with (and we beat) he also bets on this kind of board. What beats us doesn't get to raise a big river bet.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

As for a busted draw there aren't a ton of draws on the flop. Of course any ace has a gutshot straight draw and if he paired his low kicker that might make some sense. No flush draw and the other logical draw 67 made the straight on the river. He could have the overpair, that's good. And he could have something like trip 4s (a4) or a set (22,55,88) or straight (a3).

After he called a 4/5 pot bet on the flop and a 3/5 pot bet on the turn, I would be a little more cautious on that board on the river. But that's my style. I might bet 1/4-1/3 pot on the river. There's no obvious top pair for your opponent to call along with.

As played I would be calling the min raise on the river even though it is likely your beat. At that point your getting 1 to 4 pot odds. And maybe he's got QQ or something. You only have to win 1 in 5 times for you to come out equal at the point you make that decision.

This is also my style: I like to keep my bets about 1/2 pot when I only have one pair. This is enought to protect your hand from primary draws and not give up too much pot equity. That way you don't build up a pot and lose your entire stack with only one pair. Even when you have kings and they are higher than any card on the board its still only one pair. (well technically 2 pair on this board but you know what I mean) Plus you get some weaker hands to call along when you bet 1/2 pot. Also you can make bluffs or bet mediocre hands at 1 pot to get more hands to fold, and bet your monsters at 1 pot bets to build the pot.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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This is also my style: I like to keep my bets about 1/2 pot when I only have one pair. This is enought to protect your hand from primary draws and not give up too much pot equity. That way you don't build up a pot and lose your entire stack with only one pair. Even when you have kings and they are higher than any card on the board its still only one pair. (well technically 2 pair on this board but you know what I mean) Plus you get some weaker hands to call along when you bet 1/2 pot. Also you can make bluffs or bet mediocre hands at 1 pot to get more hands to fold, and bet your monsters at 1 pot bets to build the pot.

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It should be noted that what he does is fine HU, but don't do it against multiple opponents.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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I like to keep my bets about 1/2 pot when I only have one pair. This is enought to protect your hand from primary draws and not give up too much pot equity.

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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Plus you get some weaker hands to call along when you bet 1/2 pot. Also you can make bluffs or bet mediocre hands at 1 pot to get more hands to fold, and bet your monsters at 1 pot bets to build the pot.

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if the size of your bets gives away the strength of your hands even throwing in stone cold bluffs won't help you much, your hand will be clear.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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You give him 1:3 pot odds when you bet 1/2 the pot. An opponent is about 1:4.9 to hit a straight (8 outs) and 1:4.2 to hit a flush (9 outs) on the turn. You'll be keeping an eye on reads so you don't pay him off too much when he hits, so you keep his implied odds down.

That's my reasoning for it being enough to protect your hand. I'd be interested to hear why you think it is inadequate.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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You give him 1:3 pot odds when you bet 1/2 the pot. An opponent is about 1:4.9 to hit a straight (8 outs) and 1:4.2 to hit a flush (9 outs) on the turn. You'll be keeping an eye on reads so you don't pay him off too much when he hits, so you keep his implied odds down.

That's my reasoning for it being enough to protect your hand. I'd be interested to hear why you think it is inadequate.

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Calculate how much your opponent will need to extract from you when he hits to have correct odds. Now tell me how you're going to keep him from winning that ammount (tip: it's really small) without check-folding tptk everytime a scare card comes

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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Wrong, this is not even close to being enough to protect your hand.


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You give him 1:3 pot odds when you bet 1/2 the pot. An opponent is about 1:4.9 to hit a straight (8 outs) and 1:4.2 to hit a flush (9 outs) on the turn. You'll be keeping an eye on reads so you don't pay him off too much when he hits, so you keep his implied odds down.

That's my reasoning for it being enough to protect your hand. I'd be interested to hear why you think it is inadequate.

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This type of bet is inadaquate simply because you lose a lot of value assuming that your opponent is calling you with an inferior holding (ignore river context, let's pretend he really did call down with 99), since cash games are all about extracing the maximum amount of value from each hand, betting half the pot would decrease your winnings.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

Yes, I see your point. Where I play if your getting your pot bets called on multiple streets they usually have more than one pair.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

Well I figure the opponent can't count on always getting a call later on every after making his hand, because your not going to bet 1/2 the pot all the time with a hand. Some might just be ace high continuation bets or marginal hands where your opponent doesn't have implied odds.

In the better scenario for example you bet $1 into a $2 pot on the turn. He needs 1:4.9 pot odds. So he needs $1.9 in your future bets. He calls and makes his hand. Pot is now $4. He needs to bet more than 1/2 the pot and get a call and win to make a profit on that decision on the river.

Flush would be $1.2. That's less than 1/3 the pot on the river. It's easier to spot a flush on the board. But I see your point.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

I'm deffinetely calling this river raise. I probably would have played it the same way as you did, but with the mini raise on river it looks like you're beat. But hope for QQ-TT and call it. You've got the odds.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

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Yes, I see your point. Where I play if your getting your pot bets called on multiple streets they usually have more than one pair.

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I see many, many palyers at the lower levels that will not fold a flush or o-e-str8 draw to a pot sized bet. This is where we make our money. Bet the pot or more, they will call. Sometimes they draw out, but when they call, you gain &amp; they lose in theory.

Re: 100NL full: Opponent is good and loose and capable of anything...
 

I probably bet less on the river, like $10 or $15 expecting a minraise from the typical donk if I'm behind or he has a hand he thinks is good.....that way I'm not calling $50. You'd be amazed how well this works....very few donks will make the proper sized bet, instead they minraise.

results...
 

Thanks for the great discussion all. I lost, of course, to 46s. It seems I gave the correct odds. Against an opp like this in the future I will likely raise more pre and overbet the pot slightly on the flop then play it by ear.

Re: results...
 

Everyone seems to agree that you need to bet more in this situation... but can you get away from it on the river in this situation? A large portion of your 100BB stack will be committed already. 4BB preflop, ~10BB on flop, 30BB on turn... a little less than half your stack is in now. With the things that most people said here, they'd fold to a river push, even with ~45% of their stack already in (maybe not a bad idea). But if good players pick up on this, it seems to me that we'll be getting moved off a lot of pots since we're not loose.

...just playing devil's advocate, of course.