quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

77? 66? where do you draw at the line?

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

It's not even close

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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It's not even close

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yeah, i can't believe so many people raise this... such an easy fold

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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It's not even close

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OK, who voted fold??

I would raise 77 against most opponents as well. With 66, I would like more information about the other players in the hand. 55 I usually muck, but will occasionally 3-bet if the conditions are right.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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It's not even close

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OK, who voted fold??

I would raise 77 against most opponents as well. With 66, I would like more information about the other players in the hand. 55 I usually muck, but will occasionally 3-bet if the conditions are right.

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I've found myself 3-betting 88 a lot lately. I'm not sure it's a good think yet.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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where do you draw the line?

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88, 77 for some

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

My default is reraise 88 and fold 77.

Someone said 88 is "not even close" but actually it is close. You've got four live people behind you, you are a significant underdog versus most player's UTG PFR range, you have bad implied odds*, and no significant fold equity**.

You do have position on the PFR and that is a saving grace. But overall it's close.

* Bad implied odds: This is the classic problem of overcards versus a pocket pair. The overcards can frequently get away on the turn when they are losing. 88 on the other hand usually finds itself trapped into paying off. You lose bigger pots than you win.

** No significant fold equity: Villain will make an incorrect fold versus 88 roughly never.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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I've found myself 3-betting 88 a lot lately. I'm not sure it's a good think yet.

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I figured you had it right the first time. Yes, it's a good thing, and no it's not even close.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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** No significant fold equity: Villain will make an incorrect fold versus 88 roughly never.

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Wha?

This is obviously incorrect.

He will fold hands with outs often on A and K high boards. I don't see why we wouldn't also bet those kinds of flops when checked to.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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This is obviously incorrect.

He will fold hands with outs often on A and K high boards. I don't see why we wouldn't also bet those kinds of flops when checked to.

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That's your argument? If you get the exact right flop he might fold a 6-outer getting 8-1? Horrors [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img].

I stand by my original statement. You have no significant fold equity.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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It's not even close

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OK, who voted fold??

I would raise 77 against most opponents as well. With 66, I would like more information about the other players in the hand. 55 I usually muck, but will occasionally 3-bet if the conditions are right.

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Hi all

I voted fold, I find myself wanting to raise with it, but I'm always sitting at a table with a bunch of 6% preflop raisers, and it's not really that good against them.

Mack

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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You've got four live people behind you, you are a significant underdog versus most player's UTG PFR range

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I don't have Pokerstove on this computer, but I'd be interested to see what the hot/cold is for 88 vs top 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent of hands. At .5/1, few of the players are positionally aware, so if they are a 50/20 player, I think ~20 PFR from UTG isn't all that far off. However, saying that, .5/1 is also known to be a very passive game so a PFR might deserve more respect for that point.

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You do have position on the PFR and that is a saving grace.

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Yes, I think this is quite important. It also allows us to face the field with 3-cold.

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* Bad implied odds: This is the classic problem of overcards versus a pocket pair. The overcards can frequently get away on the turn when they are losing. 88 on the other hand usually finds itself trapped into paying off. You lose bigger pots than you win.

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Players at this level will make incorrect calls with two overcards on the turn ALL THE TIME. Heck, they do it at 5/10 with huge regularity IMO. Again due to the passive nature of this game, we can usually get away from it when raised on a board we do not like.

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** No significant fold equity: Villain will make an incorrect fold versus 88 roughly never.

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Then bet for value.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

<u>88 Vs Various Ranges</u>

Top 5%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
34.0011 % 33.79% 00.21% { 8d8h }
65.9989 % 65.79% 00.21% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }


Top 10%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
43.5811 % 43.00% 00.59% { 8d8h }
56.4189 % 55.83% 00.59% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


Top 15%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
48.5644 % 48.10% 00.46% { 8d8h }
51.4356 % 50.97% 00.46% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

Top 20%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
51.1897 % 50.78% 00.41% { 8d8h }
48.8103 % 48.40% 00.41% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

My Thoughts:
Although PokerStove isn't a great way to measure preflop decisions, these calculations just goes to show, that you're really behind a good portion of this range. Having position and since initiative is not much of an issue here. That might add say 5% or so to our equity.. Which may actually push this closer to a fold than a reraise.. Even though I voted reraise
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

A problem with your analysis is that you're only considering yourself and UTG. You also have 4 other guys to worry about.

And how does position and initiative add 5% to our equity, yet push the decision closer to a fold than a reraise?

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

88 is probably where i draw the line.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

I don't think fold equity is the key question. I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

But frankly, this assumption is so tenuous that I almost think it doesn't matter. Once 1-2 orbits have gone by, there will be lots of important information available that affects the decision.

We might learn that UTG is tight, loose, plays terribly postflop or whatever. We might find that the bb defends no matter how many bets he has to call. We might find that 3-betting is a virtual guarantee to get the pot HU.

But because I figure that at the "typical" 5/10 table 3-betting will generally make this a HU situation, I'd vote for raise with 88.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

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What sort of hand range do you put him on? Do you include 77? 66?

It seems a typical player wouldn't raise anything with an unpaired undercard in it here, and if we assume no lower pockets we're at best a coin flip against two overs, or at worst we're absolutely destroyed by a bigger pocket.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

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What sort of hand range do you put him on? Do you include 77? 66?

It seems a typical player wouldn't raise anything with an unpaired undercard in it here, and if we assume no lower pockets we're at best a coin flip against two overs, or at worst we're absolutely destroyed by a bigger pocket.

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At this unknown 5/10 table, I think utg could raise with: 66, 77, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, QT, JTs, A8s. Some players will also raise with lower pairs, 109s, 98s, and any Axs, but they are probably in the minority.

I don't know if you're correct about the coin flip situation. Part of the equation is that I expect the unknown player will fold occasionally on the flop, and usually on the turn without help.

If villain has something like KT, I think there's a decent chance he may actually fold on the flop. So is KJ really a coinflip against 88 if the action stops on the flop? What about if the action stops on the turn?

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

I think it is close, and I'm suprised so many think this is an easy raise against an unknown utg. I would like to have a read before raising, but I think it is close either way.
I would like to hear more arguments for raising.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

"I think it is close, and I'm suprised so many think this is an easy raise against an unknown utg."

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

I fold until I get a read. My cutoff is 99 usually anyway, because then we start getting in to the range where we'll at least be competetive with a reasonable range.

Ideally, I'd like to be able to win at least sometimes when an utg raiser pairs his low card. If he'll raise with A8o as the bottom of his range, now he can catch an 8 and I'll still be ok.

A8 is out of a lot of peoples UTG raise range though, so I cutoff at nines and realize that even then I'm usually behind the range.

Also, having a blind come along and then lead a J high flop would suck - and doesoccur.


I mean, how much does folding here give up really?
I think I'd rather move on and find a more clearly defined edge.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

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What sort of hand range do you put him on? Do you include 77? 66?

It seems a typical player wouldn't raise anything with an unpaired undercard in it here, and if we assume no lower pockets we're at best a coin flip against two overs, or at worst we're absolutely destroyed by a bigger pocket.

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At this unknown 5/10 table, I think utg could raise with: 66, 77, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, QT, JTs, A8s. Some players will also raise with lower pairs, 109s, 98s, and any Axs, but they are probably in the minority.

I don't know if you're correct about the coin flip situation. Part of the equation is that I expect the unknown player will fold occasionally on the flop, and usually on the turn without help.

If villain has something like KT, I think there's a decent chance he may actually fold on the flop. So is KJ really a coinflip against 88 if the action stops on the flop? What about if the action stops on the turn?

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The coinflip situation is definitely dependant on how well the player plays postflop; my understanding is that each of your preflop equities are ~50%. But if we can cause him to make an unprofitable fold, this would shift things in our favor.

Conversely, if he can cause us to make an unprofitable call then things shift in his favor. This comes back to Stellarwind's mention of how it's harder for us to get away from our hand when he improves than it is for him to let go UI on the turn (actually resulting in implied odds in his favor).

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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The coinflip situation is definitely dependant on how well the player plays postflop; my understanding is that each of your preflop equities are ~50%. But if we can cause him to make an unprofitable fold, this would shift things in our favor.

Conversely, if he can cause us to make an unprofitable call then things shift in his favor. This comes back to Stellarwind's mention of how it's harder for us to get away from our hand when he improves than it is for him to let go UI on the turn (actually resulting in implied odds in his favor).

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I don't think the focus should be on whether we are forcing our opponent to make a mistake. If that was our only concern, you could probably even make an argument for cold-calling; but cold-calling with 88 at an unknown table would clearly be wrong, because we have no idea how many opponents we'd end up facing, or whether we'd face a reraise from a later player.

Thus, the choice here is between raise or fold, in my view. If we think our hand is a favorite against the average hand of the unknown utg, we should raise, notwithstanding that our opponent might have an easy time making a decision on the flop or turn.

One factor some have touched on implicitly is how we like to begin at an unknown table. Sometimes, I will be overly tight at the outset, just in order to get some information before making borderline moves. Sometimes, I'm in a different mood, and feel like beginning with an overly aggressive image. I do not think that either approach - during your first orbit - is inherently superior.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

It's really close and for me it is table dependant. Against an unknown table (it's important how not only the UTG plays but the table as a whole) I will fold. If I know that the player raises lose or plays bad post flop and I can get it HU I'll raise.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

I should also add that my decision is based on acting right after the UTG raiser. If UTG raises, everyone folds, and I'm on the button I raise more liberally even against unknowns.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

Wow at a tight table I raise as low as 55.

88 is auto raise for me in almost any position.

Re: quick poll -- 88 UTG+1
 

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Wow at a tight table I raise as low as 55.

88 is auto raise for me in almost any position.

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We are talking about playing behind an UTG raise. I admit, I chose 3-bet, not realizing it's so close..