BS KK AA
 

If you have pocket kings there is a 3.4% chance someone has aces. I have had pocket kings 54 Times since I got pokertracker. That means someone should have aces 1-2 times against me. Sorry to post this, I am frustrated.

#1) Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 PL (real money), hand #1,620,811,317
Table Bakersfield, 22 Dec 2005 5:08 PM ET

pickledog999 shows [ KC,KS ]
bster222 shows [ AH,AC ]
bster222 wins $57.40.

#2) Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 PL (real money), hand #1,613,447,892
Table Evansville, 20 Dec 2005 6:58 PM ET

SHOWDOWN
pickledog999 shows [ KC,KD ]
jim60 shows [ AD,AH ]
jim60 wins $21.40.

#3) Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 PL (real money), hand #1,608,805,548
Table Poona, 19 Dec 2005 4:09 PM ET

SHOWDOWN
Jerry_SWE shows [ AD,AH ]
pickledog999 shows [ KD,KC ]
Jerry_SWE wins $28.50.

#4) Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 PL (real money), hand #1,584,441,598
Table Bo, 13 Dec 2005 12:08 PM ET
SHOWDOWN

gabriela124 shows [ AS,AD ]
pickledog999 shows [ KH,KD ]
gabriela124 wins $52.50.

#5Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 PL (real money), hand #1,572,399,214
Table Roseau, 10 Dec 2005 10:42 AM ET

SHOWDOWN
pickledog999 shows [ KC,KH ]
clangen shows [ AS,AC ]
clangen wins $37.75, pickledog999 wins $4.50.

#6) Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 PL (real money), hand #1,569,233,206
Table Monterrey, 9 Dec 2005 3:23 PM ET

SHOWDOWN
Zonie169 shows [ AH,AC ]
pickledog999 shows [ KC,KD ]
Zonie169 wins $20.

#7) Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 PL (real money), hand #1,565,676,885
Table Dessau, 8 Dec 2005 5:27 PM ET

SHOWDOWN
pickledog999 shows [ KC,KD ]
Poorty shows [ AC,AS ]
BuxLLama mucks cards
pickledog999 wins $38.15, Poorty wins $25.85.

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you have pocket kings there is a 3.4% chance someone has aces. I have had pocket kings 54 Times since I got pokertracker. That means someone should have aces 1-2 times against me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect.

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
That means someone should have aces 1-2 times against me

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

-ZEN

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you have pocket kings there is a 3.4% chance someone has aces. I have had pocket kings 54 Times since I got pokertracker. That means someone should have aces 1-2 times against me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

DAMN!!!! by 1 minute!!

nh

-ZEN

Re: BS KK AA
 

I dont understand your answers.... 3.4% of 54 = greater than 1, less than 2.

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you have pocket kings there is a 3.4% chance someone has aces. I have had pocket kings 54 Times since I got pokertracker. That means someone should have aces 1-2 times against me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

DAMN!!!! by 1 minute!!

nh

-ZEN

[/ QUOTE ]

pwned!

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont understand your answers.... 3.4% of 54 = greater than 1, less than 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont understand your answers.... 3.4% of 54 = greater than 1, less than 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Your logical fallacy does not lie in that part of your analysis.

Re: BS KK AA
 

Are you saying I dont have enough hands in? I hope so cause losing with KK is getting old.

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying I dont have enough hands in? I hope so cause losing with KK is getting old.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many players at your table?

Re: BS KK AA
 

Ahhh ok I got ya. So the % of times someone has AA is 3.4% each, not 3.4% total?

Still that seems wierd cause 3.4% times 10 would be 34% ... someone dont got aces 34% of the time .... I am confused just spell it out for me. I am not saying you are wrong in that my numbers are incorrect, but I have no clue exactly how I am wrong. The cards in [ ] are hole cards. I want to know if I am running bad or miscalculating the %.

Re: BS KK AA
 

You score the following grades on 100 tests:

100%..........1%

Did you score 50% on each test?

-ZEN

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
You score the following grades on 100 tests:

100%..........1%

Did you score 50% on each test?

-ZEN

[/ QUOTE ]

Might as well have. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL! I have almost the same pair, blue lenses though.

-ZEN

Re: BS KK AA
 

Sorry about your luck sir...

In the long run, things will work out though

Re: BS KK AA
 

How are those $30-$50 pots in a .25\.50 PL game? You are seriously overplaying KK.

Re: BS KK AA
 

I am trying to figure out if I am underestimating the chance of running into AA and you cant even give me a strait answer.

More Info
 

You never answered my question, how many people at your table. We cannot answer your problem without that info.

--Calm Down

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am confused just spell it out for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for my above post, I just was getting sick of people answering my question with a question. That is not in my personality normally.

I am not insisting I am right here.... I am asking where I am wrong. Not once have I said that you guys that say I am screwing up are wrong. I actually trust that you guys are right and I am a screwup. 10 person table. I am not asking you to do a lot of work but if you have the number handy lay it on me. Again, sorry for other post.

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am confused just spell it out for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I edited my above post, but we need to know how many people at your table. The formula is basically: (Combinations of AA (which is 6))/(Total Card Combinations w/o KK in deck)*(Number of players at table); or something like that. I'm not sure where you got the 3.4 percent figure from, but without calculating the odds based on the number of your opponents, the results are meaningless. I know the above numbers on a good day, but it is late and I can't remember them off the top of my head, I'll let someone else elaborate.

Re: BS KK AA
 

Thank you. I go the 3.4% number from a thread linked in the small stakes holdem NL forum.

Maybe I have been overplaying them as well. The games I play in are pretty crazy and very agressive so I have to think If I am out of line with my bets here.

Re: BS KK AA
 

The point REALLY is that no matter where 3.4 came from,
it is an AVERAGE statistic. Figures must converge for them
to become meaningful. Over 1,000,000 hands you will
see a better trend; to say you are "over the mark" so to speak
is based on a small sample size. Sample size is an area where
size DOES matter! On the 1Mth hand your averages should be
g00t.

-ZEN

Re: BS KK AA
 

Ok good, cause I have made as much with pocket duces as I have with KK [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I was just getting annoyed and wanted to blow off some steam after my last KK vs AA debacle, and was getting even more annoyed at the thread lol. It is all good, I will research this myself, and I actually feel better now that all the steam is out. Better to take it out here than on the tables.

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
Better to take it out here than on the tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

[not sarcastic] This is one of the most intelligent things uttered in
this forum [/not sarcastic]

-ZEN

Re: BS KK AA
 

arg nm

Re: BS KK AA
 

Too much strategy for BBV.
Lock thread plzthx.

Re: BS KK AA
 

I personally disagree with the whole "never fold KK preflop" mentality. They say if you have KK there's only a 3% chance that someone else will have AA but if you have KK and someone raises you all-in preflop then there's more than a 3% chance that they have AA.

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
I personally disagree with the whole "never fold KK preflop" mentality. They say if you have KK there's only a 3% chance that someone else will have AA but if you have KK and someone raises you all-in preflop then there's more than a 3% chance that they have AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a very good point, but given the amount of dead money that ends up in the middle in these situations, calling with KK when you're behind is often a small mistake and folding KK when you're ahead is a huge one.

Re: BS KK AA
 

KK is the gay

Re: BS KK AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I personally disagree with the whole "never fold KK preflop" mentality. They say if you have KK there's only a 3% chance that someone else will have AA but if you have KK and someone raises you all-in preflop then there's more than a 3% chance that they have AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a very good point, but given the amount of dead money that ends up in the middle in these situations, calling with KK when you're behind is often a small mistake and folding KK when you're ahead is a huge one.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are definitely situations where you can fold KK preflop. They are however, extraordinarily rare. I've never folded KK preflop online. I've done it twice live, and one of those times was a tournament bubble situation where I would have folded Aces. The other time was a live NL game where the action went something like this: UTG raises to 6x the BB, UTG +2 Me (I have a tight table image) reraises to 15x the BB, Solid TAG to my left pushes a deep stack. UTG folds. I look down at my KK, also having a deep stack, ponder for a very long time, and fold. I put his hand range at KK-AA to push after a lead by me, and a reraise. He did have AA. However, this was dependent on the fact that it was a live game, I knew the player well, and I couldn't put him on AK or QQ. I'd have a hard time laying down KK preflop online in a non-bubble situation.