AK no good?
 

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

This is a call down right?

Re: AK no good?
 

I probably bet/fold the turn.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

And when KJ or some other two pair slows down and just calls because they're worried about spades, what do you do?

EDIT: even if all of your outs are squeeky clean, you'll only get one bet out of him on the river a lot of the time, which reduces your implied odds. I think that means you don't have enough to draw to two pair or trips, and I certainly don't think you're ahead after the flop action against a "normal" opponent.

Re: AK no good?
 

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And when KJ or some other two pair slows down and just calls because they're worried about spades, what do you do?

EDIT: even if all of your outs are squeeky clean, you'll only get one bet out of him on the river a lot of the time, which reduces your implied odds. I think that means you don't have enough to draw to two pair or trips, and I certainly don't think you're ahead after the flop action against a "normal" opponent.

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I think it beats check/folding because we may have him beat (not often), may have some fold equity and this way he will not only bet hands that beat us. I think we aren't good enough often to check/call down.

I think we can check/fold the river if he calls the turn, because I doubt he bets the river with much now that we have bet the turn.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

I think it's a calldown. We really want to see a showdown HU here. hope you didn't river another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: AK no good?
 

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I think it's a calldown. We really want to see a showdown HU here. hope you didn't river another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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do we really wanna put 2 bets in here, are we good that often?

True

Re: AK no good?
 

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We really want to see a showdown HU here.

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Why? What range are you putting him on?

Re: AK no good?
 

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We really want to see a showdown HU here.

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Why? What range are you putting him on?

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These pretty much represent the two thoughts going on in my mind at the time...

My 3-bet is pretty much telling him I have AK/KQ/AsJs/KJ so his cap is either KJ/J8, 2 spades, QT, T9, a set, or an oddly played AK/KQ (both of which I'd discount). Of these hands I'm thinking:

Behind:

KJ (6): Drawing to 3 outs.

J8 (0-9 depending on cc range): Drawing to 5 outs.

2 spades, probably something like AJ/AT/A9/QJ/QT/Q9/JT/J9 with AJ/AT less likely with no 3-bet (probably 8 on average, far more if we consider worse hands): Drawing dead.

T9 (0-16 depending on whether he'd cc T9o - or even T9s for that matter): Dead

Set: Dead, but KK/JJ are unlikely, so probably only 3 combinations to worry about.

Ahead:
QT - no spades (9): 8 outs
QT - one spade (6): 15 outs
KQ (8): 1/4 of the time he has a redraw to the flush.

Tied
AK (6): 1/3 of the time he has a redraw to the nut flush, the rest we split.

So really we're hoping for an overplayed KQ or QT. If we check and he bets, we can rule out QT since there was no purpose in capping the flop if he's not taking the free card (although there is a possibility that QT with one spade would bet the turn when checked to).

Re: AK no good?
 

I think his range is slightly larger than what you give him, I would put more J and more K hands in than you have.

I think I am probably slightly optimistic though.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

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We really want to see a showdown HU here.

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Why? What range are you putting him on?

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I haven't done the combinatrix, but I was just thinking that:
1) there's not many reasonable set combinations out there,
2) we've probably got 3 avg. outs against a 2p-type hand, and
3) the relatively small equity deficit to see the river is made up by the possibility of an overplayed OESD, king, or possible split.

Earlier I actually missed that the turn hit T9, but it still seems weak to dump this HU after a flop cap against an unknown. You'd rather c/f the turn here?

Re: AK no good?
 

Yes. See deception's post for what I think is a pretty good look at it. Also, in the other (mistake) double post, he posted a read that the opponent "seemed normal." Weak, but it just reinforces the way I was leaning anyways. You're showing a ton of strength, and he doesn't care.

I also really liked deception's point about him not checking behind anything but a draw, so we should see if its an overplayed OESD after we check the turn.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I think his range is slightly larger than what you give him, I would put more J and more K hands in than you have.

I think I am probably slightly optimistic though.

True

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Very optimistic. The only J hands played like this are two pair or suited in spades.

Re: AK no good?
 

Bleaugh, dont read anything ive said, I was under the confusion that this was a blind battle for some reason.

True.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I also really liked deception's point about him not checking behind anything but a draw, so we should see if its an overplayed OESD after we check the turn.

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Against a villain who's willing to overplay the flop with an OESD, it seems to me like he'll frequently overplay the turn as well by leading?

I guess with a read things are different, but it still sucks to give up on such a strong hand HU.

Re: AK no good?
 

I kind of like the donk fold on the turn. No one's raising any worse hands so we can fold and I also think that that hands like KQ that we had beaten will call down.

Re: AK no good?
 

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Against a villain who's willing to overplay the flop with an OESD, it seems to me like he'll frequently overplay the turn as well by leading?

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What percentage of the time does he actually have an OESD, and then what percentage of the time does he fire again on the turn?

Even if he continues on the turn something like 75% of the time, its still a very small chance in the grand scheme of things.

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it still sucks to give up on such a strong hand HU.

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He's telling you pretty clearly that your hand isn't that strong. I really don't like putting anymore money in the pot, but I think c/c c/f is the best way to go about finding out more if you absolutely have to continue.

Re: AK no good?
 

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Against a villain who's willing to overplay the flop with an OESD, it seems to me like he'll frequently overplay the turn as well by leading?

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What percentage of the time does he actually have an OESD, and then what percentage of the time does he fire again on the turn?

Even if he continues on the turn something like 75% of the time, its still a very small chance in the grand scheme of things.

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it still sucks to give up on such a strong hand HU.

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He's telling you pretty clearly that your hand isn't that strong. I really don't like putting anymore money in the pot, but I think c/c c/f is the best way to go about finding out more if you absolutely have to continue.

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If we bet/fold he will tell us all the hands that we are drawing slim against, and call with the hands that we have outs to call with whilst still charging an OESD to draw.

If we check, he will bet KJ, but if we bet he will call KJ. He would also call with hands we beat that he would regularly check through with.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

I'd say he's got KJ&gt;Set&gt;OESD/FD in that order IMO.

OESD - I doubt but maybe he cold called QTs etc.

KJs is more likly IMO as is a set of 8's(makes sense him calling in position to put pressure on you hitting your OC's... but i'd expect a reraise).


So ill check and fold i think.

The only problem is that such a player who CAPS with a OESD, Will probably bet the turn again when checked to no?

It's tempting to bet as to prevent the free card, but when we do get raised this isn't good as we do have odds to call.

Although if we put him on KJ we've 3outs...so we dont.

But it comes down to his range, 2pair IMO.

yeah, i'm check/folding the turn. Sure sucks to fold TPTK but TPTK doesnt seem to be the best hand here and it sure sucks to be 2nd best.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I'd say he's got KJ&gt;Set&gt;OESD/FD in that order IMO.

OESD - I doubt but maybe he cold called QTs etc.

KJs is more likly IMO as is a set of 8's(makes sense him calling in position to put pressure on you hitting your OC's... but i'd expect a reraise).


So ill check and fold i think.

The only problem is that such a player who CAPS with a OESD, Will probably bet the turn again when checked to no?

It's tempting to bet as to prevent the free card, but when we do get raised this isn't good as we do have odds to call.

Although if we put him on KJ we've 3outs...so we dont.

But it comes down to his range, 2pair IMO.

yeah, i'm check/folding the turn. Sure sucks to fold TPTK but TPTK doesnt seem to be the best hand here and it sure sucks to be 2nd best.

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We have odds to call against pretty much nothing that raises us again, I think bet/calling would be the worst play here.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I really don't like putting anymore money in the pot, but I think c/c c/f is the best way to go about finding out more if you absolutely have to continue.

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I think if we decide to call the turn bet that it may be reasonable to call the river bet on any non-9 river card because I think it's very likely that he bets QT again (since it's the only way he can win at that point) and we still have to consider the slim chance of KQ/AK and the fact is the pot is larger than it was on the turn and the turn/river bets haven't given us any new information (since if we called the turn it's because we hoped he had KQ/QT and that is still a possibility at this point). It also costs 1 more bet as opposed to 2 on the turn so we only have to be right half as often.

That said I think folding to a turn bet may be best.

Re: AK no good?
 

i almost always see 2 pair from him here.

Re: AK no good?
 

Looks like a set to me or a big flush draw on the flop. I might bet/fold the turn. If he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he might semi-bluff raise your turn bet and you might end up folding the best hand. But that isn't very likely. He could very well have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so a bet/fold is probably correct.

I don't know how I feel about this hand. It just looks like you are drawing dead and a bet/fold is in order, and I just can't seem to put villain on any other hand but 88 or a flush draw or T9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. However, there is the chance that villain is overplaying his hand, but do we want to pay 2BB to find out? The good thing about the calldown is that we get to see villains hand here that he capped the flop with. This info might be useful for future hands.