Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

The following is from Howard Lederer's blog of his 2003 ME run: http://www.gutshot.com/Roadtrips/howardledererwsop.htm



Our table broke after about 90 minutes. I drew table one again, and this time I found myself back with Men Nguyen. I also had my good friend David Grey to my left. David is a very good high stakes side game player, but he does not have a lot of tournament NLHE experience. I felt a lot more confident at this table. Almost right away a very strange hand occurred. David opened the pot for 20,000 and Men raised him about 40,000. David moved in on Men. Men only had about 65,000 left. He was getting over 3-1 to call. He now went deep into the tank. I was trying to think of what I would call with. I decided I would have to call with any Ace, and any pair. The way the prize money is structured, places 63-10 get very similar money. Yes, 65,000 is a lot more than 15,000, but it is only about four times as much money for finishing 53 places higher. Meanwhile, first place pays 2.5 million and third pays 650,000; almost 4-1 for finishing two places higher. Clearly, lasting does not have the same value now as it will later. I almost fall out of my chair when Men shows AK and folds!! He decided to leave himself with 65,000 instead of taking what could have been an even money shot to have 280,000




If anyone remembers this hand, David Grey had AA. The one hand that if the cards were turned faced up could not justify a call from AK getting 3 to 1. Of course ESPN did not mention Men getting 3 to 1 and I just learned of it and thought it is of interest. Can David Grey really be this much of a NLHE tourney rock?

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

If he winnowed Grey's range down to monster pairs only and did some ballpark math in his head based on that range, I can see the reasoning. If he just 'felt' he was up against aces, it was an awful fold.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

Wow, the only way for this to be a correct fold is to put Grey on KK/AA ONLY.

I think he just got lucky that Grey happened to have AA here.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

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I think he just got lucky that Grey happened to have AA here.

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i fail to understand how this would be lucky.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

Very specific tournament situation....sometimes all the math in the world has to give away to your read.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

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Wow, the only way for this to be a correct fold is to put Grey on KK/AA ONLY.

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Actually, you have to go one further and only assume AA, because it's a right call if Grey flips up kings. That's how sick a read that was.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

wow.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

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Actually, you have to go one further and only assume AA, because it's a right call if Grey flips up kings. That's how sick a read that was.

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If half of the time he has KK and half of the time he has AA, which is what the situation is if you put him on the range KK/AA, I think you're still going to want to fold, because making a marginally correct call half of the time doesn't make up for getting pounded the other half of the time (though I haven't actually run the numbers, I'm pretty sure this is true). Let's also not neglect that it's possible for Men to say "Hmm, I think he has JJ+, I fold" thus making a bad decision that looks good in retrospect. I'm not sure if it's likely or not, but it's at least possible.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

I've read that David Grey is known as one of the tightest, ABC players in the high-stakes poker world. This could certianly narrow down his 3-betting range preflop (but probably not only to KK and AA).

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

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Can David Grey really be this much of a NLHE tourney rock?

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David is probably the tightest high stakes player in the world. His range of hands here is certainly tighter than anybody else I can think of who would qualify as a very good or better player. He might be tighter than Dan Harrington. ;-)

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

To put him on just AA here would be remarkable, since there is no reason for Grey to just call here, unless the unlikely event that he tried a stop and go of 65000 into a decent sized pot.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

I've played with Men twice in the last year in a few smaller buyin tournies and he was probably the tightest player at the table both times. I don't remember him drinking either, kinda the exact opposite as they portray him on tv

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

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Very specific tournament situation....sometimes all the math in the world has to give away to your read.

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I hear people say something like this all the time. It isn't true. In all cases you do the math after using your read to figure out a hand range. The math never "gives way" to the read it just processes the right response given your read.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

This was an amazing fold that didn't get that much attention at the time.

I wonder if it was because Lon + Norman didn't make that big a deal out of it (they were even more clueless then) or just the fact that it was not totally apparent how pot-stuck Men was (obviously hard to tell these kinds of things from ESPN's coverage).

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

Men probably had a read that if David was on anything other than AA or KK, he just reraises all in.

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

Here's another amazing fold from the same event that wasn't shown on ESPN as it occured at a non hole card cam table, this time made by Sam Farha:


(2500/5000 blinds)

We are down to 27 players, but we have to wait. Sammy Farha is playing a huge pot with Bryan Watkins. The flop came Q72, and they both checked. The turn came (Q72) 4 and Bryan bet and Sammy called. The river was (Q724) J with no suits. Bryan moved in for over 200,000. Sammy thought for five minutes. He finally turned over the QJ and folded!!


Lederer goes on to cover the rest of his run then overhears this conversation between Bryan Watkins and a friend.





As I left the Horseshoe, I was walking right behind Bryan Watkins. He had finished 20th. I overheard him telling his friend about the incredible lay down that Sammy made against him. Bryan had made trip 4's on 4th street (wow).

Re: Men Nguyen makes the best/worst fold ever at the 2003 WSOP ME
 

Interesting to note that Barry Greenstein says that David Grey is pretty much the only highstakes player that plays ABC:

http://www.barrygreenstein.com/dgrey.htm

"
Looseness: 3 [3/10]
Aggressiveness: 4 [4/10]

If anyone plays by the book, David Grey does. He plays with good starting hands and generally plays them to the river. Of all the players who have tried an ABC approach to poker, David is the only one who has been able to compete at the highest levels. Solid, predictable play is often unsuccessful in high stakes games, but David has good self-control, knowledge of all games, and reasonable game-selection skills.
"