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-   -   another river bet/fold (WA/WB) (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=401982)

jt1 12-20-2005 11:19 AM

another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
Both players are unknown

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.66 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.66 BB

gonzopro 12-20-2005 11:26 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
looks good to me

12-20-2005 11:31 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
I think against an unknown this play is not so great. Would he bet the turn again with things that don't beat you? The flop is pretty drawless.

He has raised a pfr 3-bettrr on this slightly scary flop he also called 2 cold. I think he has a Q here a lot of the time.

The pot is big, so how likely are players at 3/6 going to bluff /raise the flop with an over, air, a weaker PP?

True

hemstock 12-20-2005 11:31 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
I don't like it. What is he folding here? A five, a queen, an ace? Nothing. I would actually 3 bet the flop and fold to a cap or a turn raise. Guy called 2 cold preflop, he saw you 3betting and he doesnt care. Give him some credit.

Guruman 12-20-2005 11:32 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
hmmm. what hand range calls two cold, then calls two more cold, then raises that flop?

superpassivity followed up by aggression.

It doesnt look like that's a freecard play. My money's on him either being a fish with a piece of the board, or a WPT wannabe with QQ-AA.

When that turn bet comes, what are we beating here?

12-20-2005 11:44 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
I'd guess that he's got AQ, A5, or a very passive QQ here. If he had a blank queen, wouldn't hero's river bet when the ace hit be scary and he would just flat call? Maybe I'm thinking too deeply into it.

With this in mind, definite river fold. I'm not even sure I would be betting once the ace hit, you're behind nearly everything now.

MrWookie47 12-20-2005 11:46 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
Agreed. I might just c/f that river.

jba 12-20-2005 11:50 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
just check/fold the river. if he's got 99/TT just let him have this one, way too many hands have you smoked.

12-20-2005 12:04 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
I like the river, I don't like flop or turn. I think 3-bet flop or bet turn and fold to a raise. River is good because you may scare an A? Pot is probably too big.

I don't think I would have called down after his turn bet. I think he may have checked through the turn often enough to call the flop just on a steal?

True

gehrig 12-20-2005 01:04 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
well played

Redd 12-20-2005 01:17 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
I check-call the river, but I think it's close between c/c and c/f. I think checking is better either way since some better hands might get scared, let us off the hook, and give us a free showdown.
My problem with c/fing is that it's certainly possible (I'd even say likely) that an unknown could be betting a worse pair on this board on the flop and turn. So how often does he keep going with a pair once we check on the river? I think it's close, but I'd probably pay off against an unknown.

winky51 12-20-2005 01:33 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
Gotta agree with this one. There are NO draws on the flop. Q55 rainbow. This guy called 2 cold then a raised the PF 3 better on the flop. He doesnt have 66 boyz, he had the Q or A5.

winky51 12-20-2005 01:40 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
Now why would you not fold the flop? What else does this guy have? Your done.

Think if it this way. Lets say he had 88. PF 3 better bets, 88 raises the flop (maybe he has AK?), PF 3 better calls.... turn is a dud, PF 3 better checks, 88 bets...

How many of you WOULDNT bet 88 here that way?

Then again who would just cold call 2 with 77-TT here? I don't think anyone of us would, I wouldnt. So you can make this assumption of Mr. Unknown. If he is a TAG he is probably reraising with 77-TT, AQ preflop not cold calling. Since he cold called we are looking at a more passive player, thus he called with AQ or A5 fearing AA, AK, KK. He raised the flop like a good average player. "wow Mr. 3 better paused then just called I got him". Why wouldnt he bet again. If he had 77-88 and "just cold called" he would tend to call down the bets since it is quite possible in his scared little mind the 3 better had AA or KK.

12-20-2005 01:54 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
I think we are more likely WB than WA. Our bet on the river is going to get called by a Q and raised by a 5. In short, I c/f this river.

TomBrooks 12-20-2005 02:29 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
Why didn't you fold to the flop raise? What do you think he would raise with there besides a Q, KK or AA?

jt1 12-20-2005 02:46 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you fold to the flop raise? What do you think he would raise with there besides a Q, KK or AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

I played this hand last night, and though I'm specifically aware that Villian was new to the game, I honestly don't remember if I noticed that the board was paired. I do know that I was surprised that it was paired after I posted it this morning.

But, at any rate, I see players raise middle pp's and AK all the time after being 3 bet pre-flop.

Though that doesn't take into consideration his 2 cold calls preflop play. Usually players who will raise middle pp and/or AK on the flop raised preflop and then called a 3-bet.

I think, though, that the pot is big enough to try and protect one way or another. It's 7bb by the time it gets back to me on the flop. I'm getting 3-1 to see a SD, and even on this board, I don't think those are bad odds.

After that Ace rivers, though, I basically praying he had a middle pp. I can see check folding but I'm not sure I could do that getting 11-1.

TomBrooks 12-20-2005 02:56 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you fold to the flop raise? What do you think he would raise with there besides a Q, KK or AA?

[/ QUOTE ] I played this hand last night, and though I'm specifically aware that Villian was new to the game, I honestly don't remember if I noticed that the board was paired. I do know that I was surprised that it was paired after I posted it this morning.
But, at any rate, I see players raise middle pp's and AK all the time after being 3 bet pre-flop.
Though that doesn't take into consideration his 2 cold calls preflop play. Usually players who will raise middle pp and/or AK on the flop raised preflop and then called a 3-bet.
I think, though, that the pot is big enough to try and protect one way or another. It's 7bb by the time it gets back to me on the flop. I'm getting 3-1 to see a SD, and even on this board, I don't think those are bad odds.
After that Ace rivers, though, I basically praying he had a middle pp. I can see check folding but I'm not sure I could do that getting 11-1.

[/ QUOTE ]
And how are you doing? Do you have a positive BB/100? I only play 1/2 mostly. Maybe the 3/6 game is different.

jt1 12-20-2005 03:06 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
[ QUOTE ]
And how are you doing? Do you have a positive BB/100? I only play 1/2 mostly. Maybe the 3/6 game is different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you ask? I'm up .5 bb after 30,000 hands. I have a feeling I'm a 1bb/100 player right now. 3/6 is tougher than 1/2, but I think anyone with basic poker skills including tilt management can beat it.

TomBrooks 12-20-2005 03:21 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And how are you doing?

[/ QUOTE ] Why do you ask? I'm up .5 bb after 30,000 hands. I have a feeling I'm a 1bb/100 player right now. 3/6 is tougher than 1/2, but I think anyone with basic poker skills including tilt management can beat it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi jt,
I just asked because I thought you were overplaying your hand, but if you're having success it might indicate I'm wrong or that the 3/6 game is more aggressive than 1/2.

Disconnected 12-20-2005 03:44 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
[ QUOTE ]
I check-call the river, but I think it's close between c/c and c/f. I think checking is better either way since some better hands might get scared, let us off the hook, and give us a free showdown.
My problem with c/fing is that it's certainly possible (I'd even say likely) that an unknown could be betting a worse pair on this board on the flop and turn. So how often does he keep going with a pair once we check on the river? I think it's close, but I'd probably pay off against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

My initial reaction to this was to check/call the river, since I think in general in this thread, people may be putting villain on too narrow a hand range before the river. From villain's standpoint, hero made a standard continuation bet on a flop that isn't all that likely to have helped him in a decent sized pot. The original raiser folded, so a fair number of hands may take a shot on the flop, including middle pairs.

When smooth-called and checked to on the turn, villain pretty much has to bet whatever he was raising on the flop, and even with a middle pair, he's got to feel he's likely got the best hand when he's not check-raised.

So, on the river, even with the ace, I would think that villain would continue to fire away even with a hand that we beat, desperate to take the pot, if nothing else. Back to hero's perspective, on the river, I'd want to show down my hand as cheaply as possible, so I would check/call. Check/fold is OK, but I would think that once you check, villain is going to pretty much bet anything. I still figure I'm going to lose this hand, but I think I'll lose less on average by check/calling than by check/folding.

As for folding to a raise, I do think that's the right play once you bet. Bet/folding is OK, but I don't think you can fold a better hand with that donk, but you may fold some hands that would bet in position.

zephed 12-20-2005 09:42 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Both players are unknown

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
I want to 3-bet this. Bad?

UncleSalty 12-20-2005 10:21 PM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And how are you doing?

[/ QUOTE ] Why do you ask? I'm up .5 bb after 30,000 hands. I have a feeling I'm a 1bb/100 player right now. 3/6 is tougher than 1/2, but I think anyone with basic poker skills including tilt management can beat it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi jt,
I just asked because I thought you were overplaying your hand, but if you're having success it might indicate I'm wrong or that the 3/6 game is more aggressive than 1/2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Tom,

The 3/6 and 5/10 games are significantly more aggressive than 1/2. There are also enough skilled players at this level that they will see this flop and realize it's unlikely that the PFR hit it, even if they didn't either. So, you will find that you often have to call down hands with reasonable showdown value such as a broadway ace or premium pp because otherwise you might be pushed out by an aggressive player with a worse hand pretty often.

In this case however, it seems pretty clear that hero is beat.

pokerjunky 12-21-2005 12:21 AM

Re: another river bet/fold (WA/WB)
 
I think you played it perfectly actually. Your're getting roughly 3:1 on a call down and I think the average 3/6 lagtastic 6 max player is raising a smaller pocket pair on this dry flop 1 in 4 times.

River looks good also since it gains you one BB when he calls with a worse hand when he would have just checked it behind. Your getting raised here by a worse hand close to 0 times. The only other option would be to check/fold but this doesn't really fit into our reasoning for calling the flop. Check calling is also bad since he's only betting hands that beat ours a large majority of the time.


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