Playing at breakeven
 

I have been noticing a pattern in my play. I seem to be a breakeven player when I play "smart." My bad run lately has been due to being way too loose and aggressive. Anyways, when I am on my "smart" sessions, I will go up and then come down and go up and come down. I hover just above breakeven. I can never seem to continue having an outstanding session where I walk away feeling like I'm moving in the right direction. Don't get me wrong, anytime I finish a session in the green, I feel good, but I know I can do alot better.

Example: I just played 143 mins, 248 hands, and only won $8.75 on a .50/1$ 6max at EmpirePoker.

Anybody have any advice or thoughts or want me to explain more?

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

I tend to do this as well. My best suggestion is to pay attention to the tables. Often times I'll go on a nice run, my fish will bust and I'll stay and break even for 30 minutes. If I get down early I like to stay and work it back, however if I get up big quickly and the table isn't right/ I'm playing like crap I have no trouble getting up.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

I'm on a .5bb/100 over 30K hands. And I'm pretty sure I'm a winning player.

MicroBob is on a 1000bb downswing and I think he's been a pro for about a year and half or so.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

you can play pretty damn good poker and still lose money. wait until you lose for 20k hands or something, then start worrying. these super short term results don't reflect anything important.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody have any advice or thoughts or want me to explain more?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking is terribly flawed. You need to read up on statistics and variance. I don't have time to explain the subject, but I will show you a little experiment that will help you understand variance. Let's say you're a break even player. Let's assume you like to play sessions that are 248 hands long. Let's finally assume you have the same standard deviation that I do. i.e. 16.5 BB/100. The fallowing is a hundred randomly generated sessions that use the above info (results are in BB's):

-35.73
49.35
-19.33
-0.44
-18.45
17.08
26.08
52.24
11.94
-47.89
-9.92
-26.62
7.99
-9.02
37.92
23.29
38.83
26.90
11.91
-66.27
-6.81
-2.50
13.36
47.92
32.13
35.06
8.82
-17.77
53.48
-23.75
-15.74
-31.99
-54.14
-5.61
-36.25
0.39
-36.82
-11.35
40.47
6.19
-44.28
4.14
5.66
-6.93
-2.72
25.67
15.19
1.18
-9.19
27.49
-25.54
-12.55
30.56
13.27
19.01
-48.07
-29.62
11.86
-15.24
-8.04
4.28
21.56
16.28
-45.63
14.99
8.16
0.05
17.63
-4.94
-11.67
32.54
-10.64
21.23
-27.96
3.44
59.12
-53.12
9.70
-23.87
25.58
-27.64
-18.04
-44.25
-14.70
-6.93
-28.50
-12.69
24.05
-3.00
-78.16
-29.01
-5.14
10.90
12.30
-22.08
-35.30
15.13
-8.47
26.69
17.06

Let's assume you're a 1BB/100 winner:

-24.81
-38.53
-36.57
35.28
-3.40
10.10
-39.31
-24.54
23.46
37.32
37.12
-27.73
6.70
-73.88
-31.16
22.17
6.54
-15.67
-9.76
-33.84
-37.43
6.67
-0.83
6.26
-26.49
-18.91
-17.90
3.27
-36.17
34.28
-17.66
-0.89
-40.44
-21.58
11.36
40.19
3.98
-12.96
45.00
-21.84
25.51
-10.19
-33.42
31.47
15.17
18.07
-15.54
33.44
-0.23
15.49
-29.92
-2.09
26.79
-7.38
34.82
15.61
30.08
-21.90
10.62
2.77
-15.48
-62.37
-17.89
1.92
38.89
-41.49
19.42
-20.46
3.26
-63.14
-31.81
28.94
-8.16
-0.73
18.73
-15.94
-4.89
-2.80
-10.60
44.76
-29.39
29.68
-24.97
-23.51
-17.79
42.61
8.79
-20.12
-7.96
31.20
-23.23
27.40
30.12
11.96
4.58
-2.35
15.49
-19.75
-31.03
25.66

Let's assume you're a 1BB/100 loser:

23.92
-22.43
-13.54
-6.90
0.68
40.98
-30.55
-44.74
20.28
27.65
-34.23
1.23
-62.43
-32.94
5.21
-40.61
-10.34
-1.46
1.26
27.54
29.12
-25.36
21.43
-4.23
-71.55
9.95
-43.75
-0.24
-18.08
3.15
-13.34
-6.89
2.26
36.79
-0.64
-0.07
-7.86
-3.40
-13.42
13.46
-2.90
-9.17
-0.85
9.52
17.71
3.81
-10.01
5.36
-5.23
19.89
-3.48
-47.16
-0.28
-42.21
-34.57
3.09
7.18
27.83
10.61
-3.38
-17.83
5.66
-8.06
-36.95
7.74
-8.72
-17.02
-4.97
2.56
-12.59
8.43
33.29
-1.74
-20.76
-21.69
-5.75
33.17
-13.03
-51.11
-28.70
0.48
-31.31
22.84
6.51
17.84
-4.28
44.57
11.45
-1.14
-1.50
-7.13
-44.28
-21.07
-8.50
-32.94
-44.01
36.38
14.55
-11.97
6.60

Notice the variation in all of them. Drawing a pattern based on individual sessions is just wrong.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

so you ran at like 4bb/100 thats pretty good. 40k hand breakeven/downswings suck. The varience will get a lot worse as you move up limits too.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

Its all one big long session. Continue to make the best poker decision at every single oppurtunity and the money will come.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its all one big long session. Continue to make the best poker decision at every single oppurtunity and the money will come.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my biggest problem. I make the stupidest plays when I know I shouldn't.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's my biggest problem. I make the stupidest plays when I know I shouldn't

[/ QUOTE ] You should maybe order Inside the Poker Mind by John Feeney if you haven't read it already.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's my biggest problem. I make the stupidest plays when I know I shouldn't

[/ QUOTE ] You should maybe order Inside the Poker Mind by John Feeney if you haven't read it already.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't have that book. I am currently reading the Psychology of Poker along with the 2nd time through SSHE. I have read Getting Started in Hold Em, and have the Theory of Poker and Hold Em for Advanced Players coming up next.

I also have HOH 1&2 coming in a few days [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

Don't call me down with Q7o on a AQ6K3 board.

You're lucky i had 24o and was feeling daring. Next time i won't and that will be costly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Varience is varience, probably one of the toughest things in poker to handle. You become almost resistant to "bad beats" after you've logged thousands of hands... but downswings of 50BB+ still hurt bad.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

That's just under 4BB/100 hands. Looks pretty good to me. Don't see what the problem is.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

thats 4bb/100 thats great for your stakes take it slow and avoid tilting out of boredom

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

8.76 over 248 hands is a win rate of 3.52/100 hands which is so HIGH it's practically unsustainable.

basically, you're running awesome.

if you want to win more MONEY you need to move up in limits.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

3.52/100 is sustainable at .5/1 shorthand definitely.

Your winrate is very high though as ErrantNight said, especially for someone who doesn't understand that it is a high win rate.

True

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

The rake at .5/1 on Party skins is horrible man, get onto UB, stars, or absolute, you're losing so much of your win to rake it isnt even funny. IIRC the stars .5/1 rake is 40% less than the party skins.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't call me down with Q7o on a AQ6K3 board.

You're lucky i had 24o and was feeling daring. Next time i won't and that will be costly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Varience is varience, probably one of the toughest things in poker to handle. You become almost resistant to "bad beats" after you've logged thousands of hands... but downswings of 50BB+ still hurt bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you go out looking for me?

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't call me down with Q7o on a AQ6K3 board.

You're lucky i had 24o and was feeling daring. Next time i won't and that will be costly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Varience is varience, probably one of the toughest things in poker to handle. You become almost resistant to "bad beats" after you've logged thousands of hands... but downswings of 50BB+ still hurt bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you go out looking for me?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

I've lost nearly 250 BB in the past 4 days at 1/2-5/10. It sucks, but in the long run it's a small number. I dont like thinking about my bankroll in terms of $, i just like playing the best and letting it grow over time. Cannot be focused on short term.

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

I think you are focussing on short short term. 250 hands is a very short session and its impossible to be + each session even if you play perfect.

Wait for 10k hands, then review.

True

Re: Playing at breakeven
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm on a .5bb/100 over 30K hands. And I'm pretty sure I'm a winning player.

MicroBob is on a 1000bb downswing and I think he's been a pro for about a year and half or so.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mind me asking what limits?

I started HE playing at micro-limits, but I've been a NLHE player for quite a while and decided to switch back to limit to fulfill a promotion. I've been playing $2-$4 (and a little $3-$6) and was wondering if that's the same expectaion (.5 BB/100)?

Do you multi-table and if so, does that affect your winrate? I have been two-tabling a little and have found that if you play book-poker (i.e. bet strong hands, check/fold weak ones) you can expect to win more sessions than lose... but I can't easily get reads on players as the action jumps around a little too much for me to follow the action. Seems like I'm missing opportunities to value-bet and steal because I don't know the tendancies of the people I'm playing with.

Any thoughts?