JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

UTG is 35/0/ (1.1 postflop aggression)
SB is 38/7.8/ (0.5 postflop aggression)

Prima 1/2 6 max
Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bet, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

River A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero folds, SB folds.

I was getting something like 10:1 and wasn't closing the action. I didn't think SB would fold or raise so 11:1 is pretty safe estimate.

Does UTG have JT here often enough for our call here to be incorrect?

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

You played it fine. Its true UTG will hold JT sometimes, but not enough to make calling -EV.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

Call the turn, easy river fold.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call the turn, easy river fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know the river fold is easy.

The times he has JT we drawing to 3 outs for a draw, so in total 1.5 outs. (maybe less if SB has flush draw)

Best situation - 6 live outs. (Jh and Th make me puke)

Turn is difficult,
True

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

I dunno. I think I may very well fold the turn. He is CRing into two people, one of them being the PFR. He's just not aggro enough for me to want to continue on this board

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call the turn, easy river fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know the river fold is easy.

The times he has JT we drawing to 3 outs for a draw, so in total 1.5 outs. (maybe less if SB has flush draw)

Best situation - 6 live outs. (Jh and Th make me puke)

Turn is difficult,
True

[/ QUOTE ]

He certainly is not playing it like he's on a flush draw. Who knows what SB is doing in the hand. Certainly we'll hit a T and split the pot sometimes and other times we'll hit a J and lose to a T. However JT is just one of many hands he'd have here. I think we can call but it's close- we really don't know what cards we want to see, however I think there are enough good cards given the size of the pot that we can make this call, especially considering we can easily fold any river other than a T or J.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

nh

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

After looking over it, I really think that this call was slightly too loose on the turn. I have little implied odds.

@delta K, I don't put UTG on FD, I put SB on FD as a possible holding.

@ Kdawg, the reads are over about 100 hands, maybe not conclusive. But 0 raises over 100 hands is very very passive.

Looking at it, we really need a bigger pot for this call to be correct. After looking over this hand again I really like folding.

True

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

True -

easy turn call. while JT is possible there are TONS of 2-pr/set hands in his range that justify calling for our outs. I don't think SB has a FD 50% of the time so I think it is safe to count 4-5 outs here, 11-1 easy call. I'm really not worried at all about us not closing the action. If SB was going to speak up I think he would have done it by now.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

@jba, will we call the river when the board pairs? If so, don't we only have 3 outs for two pairs that we counterfeit but it commits us to another bb on the river?

I wasn't worried about us not closing the action, but I just wondered if there was enough value in calling.

We have reverse implied odds of calling when we hit our out and it isn't good, so does this bust up a lot of our outs?

True

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
@jba, will we call the river when the board pairs? If so, don't we only have 3 outs for two pairs that we counterfeit but it commits us to another bb on the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

I mention the two pair hands not because of the hidden outs aspect but only to say you should not be as concerned about chopping up a straight. i don't think we should call any board pairing river card.


[ QUOTE ]

We have reverse implied odds of calling when we hit our out and it isn't good, so does this bust up a lot of our outs?


[/ QUOTE ]

okay when we hit a tainted straight we are going to call and lose a bet some % of the time but I really don't think it's even 50% but for brevity let's say it is so. so 25% of time time we hit we essentially get neutral implied odds, but 75% of the time we can be pretty sure UTG is going to pay us off at least one bet, the guy likes his hand.

right there I am only talking about our straight outs... the set outs are obviously tainted as well, but again I think we are at least close to neutral implied odds there. overall I believe our implied odds are positive though I grant you it is marginal.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

also keep in mind that because we have two jacks, the likelihood that he has JT is cut in half.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

Since this player is a 0% pfr, you also have to consider AA-QQ as well as 99/55/JT and possibly Q9/Q8/98 and very occasionally 88 (since some players cannot lay down pocket pairs, especially this type). Your straight outs are good very often, especially where you have 2 of the jacks so there are only 8 combos of JT left (compared to 21 overpair/set combos on the flop). A rivered jack will even win it for you against anything but QQ/JT (unless of course the other player has a T).

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

--blind response--

At first glance it looks like you're safe to draw to the gutshot.

Upon further review though, it seems like UTG will have JT here a significant portion of the time. He's very passive, and a turn checkraise vs two is a very aggressive move.

If he slowplayed QQ or 99 you'd have a chance. Ditto if he caught on 88, Q8, or 89. JT looks awfully likely here though, and he only has to have it 10% of the time to make a call here incorrect. I'd guess he has it over 30%.

Interesting though because we do have odds to draw, we just don't know if hitting will do us any good.

If you catch a T on the river, do you raise when he leads? What if you catch a J instead?

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]


If you catch a T on the river, do you raise when he leads? What if you catch a J instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think i am raising either river. I'd need to decide when I call the turn what hand I think he's on and play it like that on the river.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

Nobody mentioned 67 yet so I will. This taints your 2 set outs as well.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody mentioned 67 yet so I will. This taints your 2 set outs as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep, but it jacks up implied odds on our T outs

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody mentioned 67 yet so I will. This taints your 2 set outs as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
true, he could also have TT meaning we are really drawing slim!

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

67 probably calls a lot less on this flop but still a possibility.

I raise a T river, I call a J river.

True

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is 35/0/ (1.1 postflop aggression)
SB is 38/7.8/ (0.5 postflop aggression)

Prima 1/2 6 max
Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bet, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

River A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero folds, SB folds.

I was getting something like 10:1 and wasn't closing the action. I didn't think SB would fold or raise so 11:1 is pretty safe estimate.

Does UTG have JT here often enough for our call here to be incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

*Grunch*

I do think we have to make the decision on the turn. Given the action on earlier streets, there's no reason to think he's improved on the river. Also, sb has shown no aggression so getting raised on the river shouldn't factor into our decision - so the way you played it, a call seems in order.

But I'm not sure we shouldn't fold on the turn. What is he raising with that doesn't beat us? Flush draw doesn't seem likely, so what makes sense? JT, 89, AQ-QJ, pair of 5s or 9s? QQ seems unlikely.

That's not a lot of hands, but why else is he raising into two players on the turn, esp. when one of them has been agg the whole way?

BTW I never make this play in the heat of battle and end up calling down. Probably one of my many leaks.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG is 35/0/ (1.1 postflop aggression)
SB is 38/7.8/ (0.5 postflop aggression)

Prima 1/2 6 max
Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bet, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

River A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero folds, SB folds.

I was getting something like 10:1 and wasn't closing the action. I didn't think SB would fold or raise so 11:1 is pretty safe estimate.

Does UTG have JT here often enough for our call here to be incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

*Grunch*

I do think we have to make the decision on the turn. Given the action on earlier streets, there's no reason to think he's improved on the river. Also, sb has shown no aggression so getting raised on the river shouldn't factor into our decision - so the way you played it, a call seems in order.

But I'm not sure we shouldn't fold on the turn. What is he raising with that doesn't beat us? Flush draw doesn't seem likely, so what makes sense? JT, 89, AQ-QJ, pair of 5s or 9s? QQ seems unlikely.

That's not a lot of hands, but why else is he raising into two players on the turn, esp. when one of them has been agg the whole way?

BTW I never make this play in the heat of battle and end up calling down. Probably one of my many leaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have enough outs to draw on the turn....

This wasn't a call based on me going to showdown.

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
also keep in mind that because we have two jacks, the likelihood that he has JT is cut in half.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dam I forgot this. We have to call the turn and fold unimproved.

nh

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]

@ Kdawg, the reads are over about 100 hands, maybe not conclusive. But 0 raises over 100 hands is very very passive.



[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, even though 100 hands isn't much, not a single raise anywhere in that 100 is pretty telling. This really looks more like a fold to me on the turn

Re: JJ, do we continue on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

@ Kdawg, the reads are over about 100 hands, maybe not conclusive. But 0 raises over 100 hands is very very passive.



[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, even though 100 hands isn't much, not a single raise anywhere in that 100 is pretty telling. This really looks more like a fold to me on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the lack of PFR increases his range to include hands like AA/KK/AQ/QQ which we still have four outs against!