Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

So here's the situation. You're playing against your typical loose passive guy. He limps, you raise. Flop is good. You hit TPTK or TPGK. Now he bets/3-bets you. You know your toast, but you have outs, and you plan on making a crappy river call UI because you don't have much history on the guy. Against passives who usually fear monsters, should we be popping some favorable turns? Or wait to pop a favorable river?

Here's an example from today that got me thinking about it. Villian is something like 50/5/0.8 or something like that. MP sucked too. Hero is Larry Bird.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Larry Bird is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Larry Bird raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Larry Bird raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, MP calls, Larry Bird calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, Larry Bird ?


Now I'm thinking, "he probably has A4 or AJ, maybe 44. This board is scary as hell against my range. He's probably not 3-betting ever, since I could have AA, KK, AK, AJ, or even QTs. So do you think a raise is better than a call here? How does MP play into all of this? I'll give my thoughts after some discussion gets going.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

Think you have to call down here. You'll find that even passive players throw weird [censored] at you. you have mp padding your call down, and yes you have outs against two pair. Theres a lot of things he could be doing this with. Pair + FD, 2 pair, set, pair + gutter to name some and the pot is already pretty big.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

I think you're missing my point. If I raise, the likelihood of just getting called and it going check-check on the river is very high.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're missing my point. If I raise, the likelihood of just getting called and it going check-check on the river is very high.




[/ QUOTE ]
And don't forget that extra bet (or two due to MP) that you get when you hit your T for a str8 and you can bet again on the river.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

Yeah. That's what I'm thinking. Since MP is in there drawing, as am I, but I've decided to showdown, I might as well pop now and get an extra bet from MP in case I hit the river. He'll fold his diamonds on the river.

Well.. that's the whole point of the showdown raise. You're going to showdown anyway, a raise takes the same amount of bets, and you can get an extra one in if you hit. If I had raised, I would've bet any T obviously, plus any K and probably a J. I'd bet/fold a Q. I wouldn't bet a 4 because I've put him on two pair, so he's still winning. Good imaginary plan for the past?

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good imaginary plan for the past?

[/ QUOTE ] Sounds cool but I'm still thinking about it. I'll probably go to bed before I make a decision. I'll get back.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

If you are sure he will not 3-bet, It seems like a good play.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

Getting 3bet on this turn sure sucks balls, as does a river donk. If I can be guaranteed to only pay two bets to get to showdown, I'm going to take it in this situation. In addition, part of your reasoning seems to be that you can fire again if you hit a straight on the river. So you're hoping to put two bets in when behind and one bet in when you're ahead? Backwards.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

I like it against a very passive/weak tight player but not anyone else. Many aggressive players will either 3 bet you or donk the river anyway. Some seemingly passive guys who aren't very experienced will still think their A4 is the nuts and 3 bet the turn also. Actually, I like this play a lot better when we don't have a draw to go with it since we can more easily fold to a 3 bet.

Just tread carefully in general.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

I don't think this is a great time to raise for a free showdown at all.

A raise for a free showdown, as I understand it, entails raising with a marginal hand that you may think is the best but don't want to be forced into folding because of a scary river card. I am really sure that it requires that you be heads up.

It just seems here that you are clearly beat but don't want to fold, a leak that I am also trying to correct.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

I would call down, but if i raised and he called, i dont think i whant the river to be free i would bet if checked to

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is a great time to raise for a free showdown at all.

A raise for a free showdown, as I understand it, entails raising with a marginal hand that you may think is the best but don't want to be forced into folding because of a scary river card. I am really sure that it requires that you be heads up.

It just seems here that you are clearly beat but don't want to fold, a leak that I am also trying to correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dislike the play as well as your reasoning.
Though there are exceptions, you'd ideally like to have a lack of outs with the opportunity to fold a better hand. Here we have outs and no chance to fold a better hand. It doesn't matter if it's not HU.
I don't think Kevin McHale would approve of this.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

[ QUOTE ]
So here's the situation. You're playing against your typical loose passive guy. He limps, you raise. Flop is good. You hit TPTK or TPGK. Now he bets/3-bets you. You know your toast, but you have outs, and you plan on making a crappy river call UI because you don't have much history on the guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, are you intentionally trying to sound like Hubie Brown here? If so it's brilliant. The FSP has no upside though.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

You replied to McGahee.. were you directing your post at him or me? I'm confused.

And no, I didn't intend to sound like Hubie, but getting that reference is an honor anyhow, and now I think all the hands post I start will be in Hubie format.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

[ QUOTE ]
Getting 3bet on this turn sure sucks balls, as does a river donk. If I can be guaranteed to only pay two bets to get to showdown, I'm going to take it in this situation. In addition, part of your reasoning seems to be that you can fire again if you hit a straight on the river. So you're hoping to put two bets in when behind and one bet in when you're ahead? Backwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

We don't think mr. passivity checks a river 4 straight board?

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

[ QUOTE ]
We don't think mr. passivity checks a river 4 straight board?

[/ QUOTE ]
I know you're really, really trying to get bets out of him when you hit the straight, but that's why that part of the reasoning sucks. Most of the time you won't suck out on him, and will just end up putting in two bets when behind. Its not an argument between two bets in on the turn and and one with your rivered straight versus one on the turn and two with your rivered straight, its putting in two - and opening the door for more - when you're almost positive you're behind and won't ever fold a better hand (or any decent hand, really).

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

I agree if I fear being 3-bet. I really don't. This guy was the passive of all passives. I want to see a showdown for 2 bets. A raise accomplishes that 95-99%, and gets an extra bet from MP when he misses the river. I can safely fold a river donk if I don't improve, in case that happens.

Regardless, you might be right, but I think this merits discussion and goes beyond just "you're behind why raise?" I'm at work now, but maybe when I get home I'll do some math on the issue.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

Maybe you need to be more specific about your read. He's a 50VPIP with aggro just under 1, and he bet/3bet you on the flop and led the turn. He doesn't look the most passive of fish so far.

In talking about getting an extra bet from MP, it sounds like you're talking about this raise being for value, since MP will never call a river bet with a busted draw. While its true that having an overlay is nice, it doesn't make up for the fact that you're behind way too often, with few outs. Especially if you figure MP's most likely draw is a flush, meaning you have a bare 3 outs to your best draw.

Also, if your read is that you're behind almost always, you need to find ways to put the least money in, not get the most out of a drawing MP. In an earlier post you worried that the opponent would check a four-straight river. Presumably he would also check a flush river, which is great for you if MP isn't drawing but has some weak made hand. The more rivers the opponent checks, the more you should be inclined to simply call the turn when you're so sure you're behind.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

Good point about him checking a diamond, and looking for a river check in general.

Re: Been thinking about free showdown raises
 

I don't really like the free showdown turn raise here because your outs don't really help.

If you hit the Q, it puts 4 to the straight. If you're worried your ace is beat, pulling trips isn't likely to be good. Either he'll have a house or the ace will make him one. The only time the Ace helps you without helping him (assuming you're beat on the flop) is if he has 2-pair that doesn't use the ace, which puts him exactly on J4, which is unlikely. Finally, the board is double-flush drawn and you don't have either flush draw, so any river card that makes your hand could make him a flush.

I just call down at this point.

Now, if you had a flush draw, or 2-pair draw that didn't put 4 to the board, or a straight draw that didn't have other flushes tainting it, I'd be more interested in the turn raise for a free showdown.