river value raise?
 

Had one arse of a night and just need to check a few things. villian is 33/6.2/0.58 over ~150, who raises this river and who just calls? oh and before anyone mentions the flop flat call, fgured my hand was fairly solid and bb only just had one more bb after betting the flop, and wanted to get the turn raise in.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP calls.

River: (16.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>...

Final Pot: 18.20 BB.

Re: river value raise?
 

Looks like A7 or 77. A7 has 6 combos, 77 has one combo. He might even have K7.

The big question is whether to cap if he 3-bets. I think the answer is yes.

I think that question would become even more difficult if the A didn't come on the river. In that case I might just call. Although capping may still be correct.

Re: river value raise?
 

Raise the flop

Re: river value raise?
 

I'd say A7s at 1 combo, 77 at 1 combo, and AJ and AA are 3 combos each, but AJ is fairly unlikely to be played like this so I'd say less than 1 combo for it. AA is fairly likely IMO, what has he got to be scared of when he 3 bets the turn? Only JJ or an even more unlikely 77, so it should be an easy cap even for a passive. I'd just call and expect to see AA.

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to slowplay.

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to slowplay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ Moose, and I'm confused as to why this hand is even interesting. You must have been having a hella bad session to think that jacks full isn't the best hand by far here.

Re: river value raise?
 

Are you guys missing that AA is a large part of his narrow range here?

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to slowplay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to get 3-bet by an overpair and then get to raise the turn anyway.

Re: river value raise?
 

raise the flop, too

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to slowplay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to get 3-bet by an overpair and then get to raise the turn anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

If only things went according to plan every single time.

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to slowplay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to get 3-bet by an overpair and then get to raise the turn anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

If only things went according to plan every single time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. BB checked the turn BTW [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: river value raise?
 

played fine. I cannot believe that the two possibilities that beat you (AA and 77) are considered out there. 3 people say call? are you mad?

raise this and cap it. If you are shown either, thats a suckout. You won't get shown then anywhere near as often as you miss bets in this situation.

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I cannot believe that the two possibilities that beat you (AA and 77) are considered out there. 3 people say call? are you mad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you not consider these hands when they're the largest part of his range, IMO.

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to slowplay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the perfect time to get 3-bet by an overpair and then get to raise the turn anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

If only things went according to plan every single time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. BB checked the turn BTW [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you get to pop the turn far more often then you get to be 3-bet by an overpair on the flop.

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I cannot believe that the two possibilities that beat you (AA and 77) are considered out there. 3 people say call? are you mad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you not consider these hands when they're the largest part of his range, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because jacks full rules. duh.

Re: river value raise?
 

agreed, i used to raise every flop habitually but this looks like a good time to wait till the turn.

Re: river value raise?
 

Sharpie,

If you're basing the likelihood of AA on his low PFR stat, I'd pay more attention to what low PFR guys are actually popping with. Grouped with other stats, it's helpful (i.e., I have a good idea what a 22/17 TAG's range is), but for loose, passive, call stations, I see all sorts of odd stuff. 5 PFR guy opening UTG with JTs, raising from SB with A6s.. it's not quite as rational. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see AA, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see 33, A7s, or even K7s.

Re: river value raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
played fine. I cannot believe that the two possibilities that beat you (AA and 77) are considered out there. 3 people say call? are you mad?

raise this and cap it. If you are shown either, thats a suckout. You won't get shown then anywhere near as often as you miss bets in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi

I would raise and call a 3 bet, there is a huge chance of AA, and I think a much reduced chance of A7 and 33, 77 is a little MUTBS but still more realistic than either of these two options in my opinion.

Mack

Re: river value raise?
 

I must be retarded 'cause I'm not getting why people don't think it's closer. Even if we give him a range of A7s, K7s, 33, AA, and 77 it's 7 we're beating and 4 we're behind. We probably don't need to be ahead a full 2/3s of the time as he'll often cap a full house because he has a full house, but I imagine he slows down quite often with K7s if he has it, and sometimes with the lower boats.

In actuality I think we should discount the hands we're beating even more. I can understand a 58/6/0.8 doing weird moves like opening K7s from MP yet limping AA and the whole bit, but a 33/6/0.6 seems in line to me for the most part.

Re: river value raise?
 

Raise and call a 3-bet.

Re: river value raise?
 

I don't understand the people who want to call this at all. Do you hate money or something? I have seen nothing to suggest 77 or AA are more likely then anything else that we beat. Easy, easy raise and I am probably capping a 3 bet as well.