3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

The villian is 44/24/1.09, but only through 25 hands, so those numbers are dubious.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.00 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>

Call down or fold?

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

I don't raise JTs UTG, ever. The lowest I go is QJs, A8s, A9o, KJo. QJs depends on the table too.

This is one of those situations that sucks. I call down here because the board is awfully coordinated, and you've got no read on him.

I probably check behind the river if he checks it.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

The standard line is to call down as you only need to be good around 20% to make money as you get 8:2.
He may have turned a draw, a pair or may just think he can move you off unimproved big cards.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
The standard line is to call down as you only need to be good around 20% to make money as you get 8:2.
He may have turned a draw, a pair or may just think he can move you off unimproved big cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

What're you doing here if the board is completely rainbow? I get the feeling I should be folding there more often, but can't against unknowns.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise JTs UTG, ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know there are different opinions on this, but I think it's OK to raise this UTG in a 6-max game. In this case, there was a player sitting out, so it was only 5-handed.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

We also have outs vs a lot of his hands he could have made too.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

I don't think you're good here very often. I call down here most of the time and hate myself when MHING.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

I still call down, I may fold if I know the player.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're good here very often. I call down here most of the time and hate myself when MHING.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise JTs UTG, ever. The lowest I go is QJs, A8s, A9o, KJo. QJs depends on the table too.

This is one of those situations that sucks. I call down here because the board is awfully coordinated, and you've got no read on him.

I probably check behind the river if he checks it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is the board awfully coordinated? At the turn there is no possible straight, no possible flush, and J9 aside 2pair is very unlikely (J3, J5, 95, 93, 53 ??) Fold because he only has AF = 1 and you shouldn't be there in the first place.

RESULTS
 

I called the turn checkraise. The river was a blank and I check/called.

He had J9o and MHWNG.

I hate these situations.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold because he only has AF = 1

[/ QUOTE ]



AF of 1 isn't too too passive for someone with those kind of PF numbers (there IS a correlation...AF of 1 is passive if you're 21/14, it's not as passive for his numbers).


I call down but I also hate myself for it.

Maybe he just picked up 2nd pair and he already had a flush-draw (and he's perhaps only check-calling the flop with only a flush-draw).
It's a theory anyway...but it probably doesn't have a 1:4 chance of being correct.


This is tough to read though because he only check-called the flop while also holding a TPNK (so I guess he is pretty passive afterall...with such a small sample the AF should not be taken too seriously).

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is tough to read though because he only check-called the flop while also holding a TPNK (so I guess he is pretty passive afterall...with such a small sample the AF should not be taken too seriously).

[/ QUOTE ]
No, villain bet/called the flop.

I think I'd be able to find a fold here without the double suited board whispering semi-bluff.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise JTs UTG, ever. The lowest I go is QJs, A8s, A9o, KJo. QJs depends on the table too.

This is one of those situations that sucks. I call down here because the board is awfully coordinated, and you've got no read on him.

I probably check behind the river if he checks it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is the board awfully coordinated? At the turn there is no possible straight, no possible flush, and J9 aside 2pair is very unlikely (J3, J5, 95, 93, 53 ??) Fold because he only has AF = 1 and you shouldn't be there in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are alot suited ace hands he has that he's making this check-raise with.

It's been my experience that people bluff-raise turns that give them a flush draw pretty often, especially if he was already in there with a gutshot or a weak pair.

edit: MicroBob's dead on with AF numbers. AF is a crappy noisy stat. The more loose they are preflop, the more aggressive lower numbers are.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

Id fold it. If there would have come in three to a flush or if a low card would have paired then its an easy call but as it looks now he probably isnt on a bluff. He either hit something or he slowplayed something.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

Call

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Id fold it. If there would have come in three to a flush or if a low card would have paired then its an easy call but as it looks now he probably isnt on a bluff. He either hit something or he slowplayed something.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not my experience here at all. Especially with such a dubious read I'm calling down here. This is a flush draw pretty frequently.

I'm even tempted to 3-bet/fold, and check behind the river. It's too crazy to really do, but it's worth considering.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm even tempted to 3-bet/fold, and check behind the river. It's too crazy to really do, but it's worth considering.

[/ QUOTE ]
FPS. Are we really ahead on the turn that often? The extra bet we squeeze out of a semi-bluff that would have backed down on the river – in rare fashion, I think – is negated by missed showdowns and missed river redraws when a made hand plays back at us and we fold for the same number of bets it costs to call down.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm even tempted to 3-bet/fold, and check behind the river. It's too crazy to really do, but it's worth considering.

[/ QUOTE ]
FPS. Are we really ahead on the turn that often? The extra bet we squeeze out of a semi-bluff that would have backed down on the river – in rare fashion, I think – is negated by missed showdowns and missed river redraws when a made hand plays back at us and we fold for the same number of bets it costs to call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I absolutely agree, taking that line is dumb. I just put it up there to illustrate a point.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]

edit: MicroBob's dead on with AF numbers. AF is a crappy noisy stat. The more loose they are preflop, the more aggressive lower numbers are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this a bit more plz ?

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

edit: MicroBob's dead on with AF numbers. AF is a crappy noisy stat. The more loose they are preflop, the more aggressive lower numbers are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this a bit more plz ?

[/ QUOTE ]

They calculate aggression factor like this:

(Times player bets + Time player raises) / (times player calls)

Imagine for a minute an otherwise strong player who decided to play 60% of his hands preflop.

If he played smart-aggressive postflop, he would have to have a lower aggression factor because alot more of his hands would be middle or bottom pair hands that have the odds to call to the turn, but aren't worth raising with.

He'll still be playing the top ~20% of his hands just like us, but he'll have alot more hands that he'll just be calling with.

So simpler put, he's playing as aggressive in the same spots we are, but he's got alot more spots where he should be passive.

Re: 3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK
 

Fold.
Villian has J9 or slowplayed something better than TP Ten kicker. A straight draw is possible, but it seems unlikely Villian would raise with that on this hand since you've demonstrated you like your hand and he shouldn't be expecting you to fold it too often.