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-   -   3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=399781)

AceHiStation 12-16-2005 04:55 PM

3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
No real reads on villain. On the flop I was hoping to 3-bet allin, but given villains smoothcall I obviously didn't have this option. Looking back I think I need to check this turn, but I figured I'd post to see if anyone else had any other thoughts.
Thanks,
-Ace


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Hero ($1372.60)
SB ($988.05)
BB ($479.55)
UTG ($855.70)
MP ($445.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $19.

Flop: ($53) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $50</font>, BB calls $50.

Turn: ($153) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $900</font>, BB calls $204.55 (All-In).

River: ($1457.55) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $1457.55

Gregg777 12-16-2005 04:57 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
Vs. that stack I would play it the same once you bet the turn.

SmileyEH 12-16-2005 04:59 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
I definitely check the turn. You're committing yourself to the pot, but if villian calls or raises your bet, you almost never have the best hand.

-SmileyEH

Gregg777 12-16-2005 05:12 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
[ QUOTE ]
I definitely check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't always behind and he has a lot of outs.

Not saying I would bet every time, it's player dependent, but I wouldn't check every time either.

SmileyEH 12-16-2005 05:18 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I definitely check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't always behind and he has a lot of outs.

Not saying I would bet every time, it's player dependent, but I wouldn't check every time either.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the frequency that hero is ahead that matters, it's the profitability of betting. If hero is ahead he's unlikely to get calls from worse hands, but since hero's hand has so many outs a bet commits him to the pot. Bet/fold would be fine if hero had TPTK without the flush draw because he needs to protect his hand and he can safely fold to a raise. With the spades, hand protection is pretty much moot. The only case where betting would be correct is if villian has exactly a spade flush draw, because that is hte only way we'll get value out of that hand (except for the 1/5th occurence of a spade on the river). Two pair, a set, a straight, a pair etc. are all more likely. Taking a free card against better hands, and inducing bluffs from worse hands seems a much better line here.

-SmileyEH

Gregg777 12-16-2005 05:35 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
[ QUOTE ]
Two pair, a set, a straight, a pair etc. are all more likely. Taking a free card against better hands, and inducing bluffs from worse hands seems a much better line here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I guess I am just running good against donks lately.

Leptyne 12-16-2005 05:50 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
On the flop there is a made str8, so I'm not sure what you expect Villain to raise with that you're going to be ahead of. When the turn brings a 2nd str8 into play of KT I don't see how having TPTK with a flush draw plus the str8 draw that may or may not be the nut str8 makes your hand so desireable.

A 6-Max Button raise doesn't require much, so Villain's calling standards are lowered too. Your CB doesn't mean all that much, but surely Villain needs a piece of the flop to call? Since the made str8 will be raising that pretty much leaves a draw like KT or maybe AQ. Depending on donkishness it could be AJ, KJ, KQ. These might see the flop but I'm not sure about calling a PSB.

When you consider Villain's hand range including an A I don't see how the A on the turn helps you more than Villain.

OK, so we get carried away and don't want to show a sign of weakness by checking the turn so you bet $100 and get minraised. I'd be thinking Villain liked the A and I'd flat call and hope for a sweet river.

Big_Jim 12-16-2005 05:55 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
Check behind on turn. Call any decent river bet. (Obviously, raise if you improve)

ahnuld 12-16-2005 05:59 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
def. def. check the turn. Actually im not contributing anything becuase Big jim summed up what needs to be done.

BobboFitos 12-16-2005 06:32 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
please check this turn

AceHiStation 12-16-2005 07:21 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
Villain had KTo and once I bet the turn I was kicking myself.

soah 12-17-2005 01:25 AM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
Why push the turn there? It looks pretty clear that your hand is no good and your opponent isn't folding. He has screwed up bigtime by leaving himself $200 in a $550 pot. I'd take advantage and stick the rest in on good rivers and save the rest for a rainy day if I don't improve.

cardsharkk04 12-17-2005 04:39 AM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
What do you guys do if you check call the turn and hit your spade on the river. Lead out or check?

flawless_victory 12-17-2005 04:42 AM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.

fuzzbox 12-17-2005 01:23 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
Check behind on the turn.

but since you did bet, just call the minraise and hope to hit a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] He gives you 4.5:1, and he will pay you the other 200 if you hit (so 6.5:1). That seems like a good deal to me.

rikz 12-17-2005 04:40 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
The stop &amp; go min-raise from villain looks like a strong hand more than a bluff or a weak ace (AT?). So, he must think he's ahead on the flop and the turn. What hands would he call your raise with from the BB that are strong on flop and turn to play this way? Well, he might have AQs (TPTK turns into 2-pair on turn), T9s for a straight (but this is a loose call oop, so less likely), and 88/JJ (set on the flop). Less likely candidates include a KT for a straight, but that seems unlikely for him to call your raise with OOP from BB, and I think a villain with QQ might have reraised preflop.

So, where are you on the turn if villain isn't bluffing with air or an unimproved low pair or a low flush draw (or whatever):

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 8c Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 15 34.09 29 65.91 0 0.00 0.341
Ac Qc 29 65.91 15 34.09 0 0.00 0.659

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 8c Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 11 25.00 33 75.00 0 0.00 0.250
Tc 9c 33 75.00 11 25.00 0 0.00 0.750

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 8c Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 11 25.00 33 75.00 0 0.00 0.250
8d 8h 33 75.00 11 25.00 0 0.00 0.750

Without doing all the math, I think you are a little better off than 3:1 behind and you get better than 4:1 to call. So, I'd say call the min-raise on the turn, check behind on the river if villain checks, and consider folding if villain pushes that 5d river card.

rikz 12-17-2005 04:45 PM

Re: 3/6(6-max): AKs flops gutshot royal
 
[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys do if you check call the turn and hit your spade on the river. Lead out or check?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd lead out with a bet that is the largest amount I think a set or straight or AQ top two-pair will call even though he "knows" I must have the flush. Maybe $50?


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