($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: AJGluteia ( $885 )
Seat 4: PlynWitMyPP ( $380 )
Seat 5: Gurdy ( $2145 )
Seat 9: Fat_Loser8 ( $1115 )
Seat 7: EZ_OUT ( $1000 )
Seat 8: nineballer9 ( $1265 )
Seat 2: runningitout ( $1110 )
Seat 6: seansafehand ( $1130 )
Seat 3: coripro2003 ( $970 )

Level:3
Blinds(25/50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AJGluteia [ Jc Js ]

nineballer9 raises [100].
Fat_Loser8 folds.

AJGluteia ...?

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Oh, that's you. I was wondering.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: AJGluteia ( $885 )
Seat 4: PlynWitMyPP ( $380 )
Seat 5: Gurdy ( $2145 )
Seat 9: Fat_Loser8 ( $1115 )
Seat 7: EZ_OUT ( $1000 )
Seat 8: nineballer9 ( $1265 )
Seat 2: runningitout ( $1110 )
Seat 6: seansafehand ( $1130 )
Seat 3: coripro2003 ( $970 )

Level:3
Blinds(25/50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AJGluteia [ Jc Js ]

nineballer9 raises [100].
Fat_Loser8 folds.

AJGluteia ...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shove.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: AJGluteia ( $885 )
Seat 4: PlynWitMyPP ( $380 )
Seat 5: Gurdy ( $2145 )
Seat 9: Fat_Loser8 ( $1115 )
Seat 7: EZ_OUT ( $1000 )
Seat 8: nineballer9 ( $1265 )
Seat 2: runningitout ( $1110 )
Seat 6: seansafehand ( $1130 )
Seat 3: coripro2003 ( $970 )

Level:3
Blinds(25/50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AJGluteia [ Jc Js ]

nineballer9 raises [100].
Fat_Loser8 folds.

AJGluteia ...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think that's too LAG? I mean...6 people behind me, I have 19xbb, the raiser is UTG...I dunno.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: AJGluteia ( $885 )
Seat 4: PlynWitMyPP ( $380 )
Seat 5: Gurdy ( $2145 )
Seat 9: Fat_Loser8 ( $1115 )
Seat 7: EZ_OUT ( $1000 )
Seat 8: nineballer9 ( $1265 )
Seat 2: runningitout ( $1110 )
Seat 6: seansafehand ( $1130 )
Seat 3: coripro2003 ( $970 )

Level:3
Blinds(25/50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AJGluteia [ Jc Js ]

nineballer9 raises [100].
Fat_Loser8 folds.

AJGluteia ...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think that's too LAG? I mean...6 people behind me, I have 19xbb, the raiser is UTG...I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, well the alternatives are-

Flat call and invite more people behind you to call

Raise a smaller amount, putting about 1/3rd of your stack in the middle and hope to not get pushed off the best hand.

Fold JJ to a single minraise.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]

You don't think that's too LAG? I mean...6 people behind me, I have 19xbb, the raiser is UTG...I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're getting a little short early on and I think that even against an UTG min-raise, you're ahead of his hand range. Also, I don't think that this is a spot you wanna fold, and it's not a spot you want to play OOP against 6 opponents, so I think that a push to isolate UTG is the best bet.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You don't think that's too LAG? I mean...6 people behind me, I have 19xbb, the raiser is UTG...I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're getting a little short early on and I think that even against an UTG min-raise, you're ahead of his hand range. Also, I don't think that this is a spot you wanna fold, and it's not a spot you want to play OOP against 6 opponents, so I think that a push to isolate UTG is the best bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that I'm likely ahead of his range, but a push is a big overbet, so I am worried he will fold most of the hands I beat, except AK and perhaps TT. If he's raising with 88+, AQ+, and calls with TT+, AK...even assuming no one behind me picks up QQ+....

12 times i pick up 175
17.63 times i win 960
23.37 times i lose 885 and bust...

for a net loss of about 30 chips.

and there's an 8% or so chance that someone behind me has picked up QQ+.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: AJGluteia ( $885 )
Seat 4: PlynWitMyPP ( $380 )
Seat 5: Gurdy ( $2145 )
Seat 9: Fat_Loser8 ( $1115 )
Seat 7: EZ_OUT ( $1000 )
Seat 8: nineballer9 ( $1265 )
Seat 2: runningitout ( $1110 )
Seat 6: seansafehand ( $1130 )
Seat 3: coripro2003 ( $970 )

Level:3
Blinds(25/50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AJGluteia [ Jc Js ]

nineballer9 raises [100].
Fat_Loser8 folds.

AJGluteia ...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think that's too LAG? I mean...6 people behind me, I have 19xbb, the raiser is UTG...I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, well the alternatives are-

Flat call and invite more people behind you to call

Raise a smaller amount, putting about 1/3rd of your stack in the middle and hope to not get pushed off the best hand.

Fold JJ to a single minraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like any of these to be sure but I am feeling like folding might be the lesser of all evils.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: AJGluteia ( $885 )
Seat 4: PlynWitMyPP ( $380 )
Seat 5: Gurdy ( $2145 )
Seat 9: Fat_Loser8 ( $1115 )
Seat 7: EZ_OUT ( $1000 )
Seat 8: nineballer9 ( $1265 )
Seat 2: runningitout ( $1110 )
Seat 6: seansafehand ( $1130 )
Seat 3: coripro2003 ( $970 )

Level:3
Blinds(25/50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AJGluteia [ Jc Js ]

nineballer9 raises [100].
Fat_Loser8 folds.

AJGluteia ...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think that's too LAG? I mean...6 people behind me, I have 19xbb, the raiser is UTG...I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, well the alternatives are-

Flat call and invite more people behind you to call

Raise a smaller amount, putting about 1/3rd of your stack in the middle and hope to not get pushed off the best hand.

Fold JJ to a single minraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like any of these to be sure but I am feeling like folding might be the lesser of all evils.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW...

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

I almost never flat call in spots like this, but this might be an exception. Wuoldnt yell at you for folding or moving allin. Hey why dont you just do the math for allin, it cant be that complicated. Put him on a range (calculate chances of people behind you having AA-QQ also), and figure it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Meanwhile Ill sit here and learn from your results.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]

I almost never flat call in spots like this, but this might be an exception. Wuoldnt yell at you for folding or moving allin. Hey why dont you just do the math for allin, it cant be that complicated. Put him on a range (calculate chances of people behind you having AA-QQ also), and figure it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Meanwhile Ill sit here and learn from your results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow us disagreeing on a line doesn't surprise me.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

I can do that. Well, I'll try to anyway, only via ICM not chipEV.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I almost never flat call in spots like this, but this might be an exception. Wuoldnt yell at you for folding or moving allin. Hey why dont you just do the math for allin, it cant be that complicated. Put him on a range (calculate chances of people behind you having AA-QQ also), and figure it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Meanwhile Ill sit here and learn from your results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow us disagreeing on a line doesn't surprise me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly I don't know the answer....thats why I want ilya to do the math based on certain UTG ranges. It should be relatively simple if he cares about the right play and makes a few assumptions. I think its a pretty important spot to know exactly what to do. Just saying to move allin is too lazy of me to accept without donig any math.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Right if he calls every time you need a 55.9% winrate which means he's raising 77+,AJo+,ATs+. Straight off the bat this seems more than reasonable anyway. In fact that's even wanting a ridiculously big edge.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

But ok hes not calling every time? Lets assume he calls only with AK stuff and AA-QQ, just out of curiosity....If thats +EV we dont need to move on. Lets also assume a range of 99-AA and AJ+

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Take this for what it's worth from someone who plays the 33s and below:

The simplest answer is that I can't see folding here and calling and pricing in further callers, possibly to give up the best hand post flop is not attractive either.

IMO, you have a ton of FE by pushing. I don't know if this is true for the 55s but I've been noticing alot more of this mini-raising crap from UTG starting on level 3 recently. His range is WAY looser than you are giving him credit for, I believe.

As for pushing and running into QQ+ behind you, I think that's just a chance you have to take. Stuff happens.

In this spot, pushing JJ is almost automatic for me against a mini-raise. (Of course I have to again place the disclaimer that I play 33s and below. But judging from some of the hands I've seen posted, I don't think that my guess that we are often way ahead of UTG even in a 55 is way off.)

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Yes I agree his range is probably looser, I just want to do the calculation based on the tightest humanly possible range and see what the EV is for that. If its still slightly +EV then we know its huge EV against a normal range.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Cmon someone do the exact math for us! I know you are all huge math wizards!! It can't be that hard and it should help us learn a lot and use in similar situations!! Dont discount overpair behind us though. Someone behind us will have AK+ or QQ+ about 15% of the time, which is signifigant enough to be counted in any equation. (about 8.5% of the time they will have QQ+)

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Well the problem is when he folds his range has to be looser because if we assume he folds the bottom % of that the chips we gain when he folds aren't worth that much to us.

I tried it but came up with some very weird answers so I have to check my working again.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Working out when someone behind calls is really hard because it depends on who calls, the ICM afterwards will be different for each person? Plus what about those who call with 99,TT and even worse such as Gurdy (possibly), PlynWitMyPP (more likely) ?

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

tigerite, I know people might call with 99-TT...my basic point is that I always like to determine whats the situation in a worst case scenario first..like if the ranges are all supertight...tighter than tehy usually would be. This is important for a few reasons:

1. It can prove to you that one play is wrong....for instance if pushing JJ is +EV even if all of our opponents play perfectly after we push, then obviously folding is incorrect.

2. It can help you understand how to play in higher limit games where some players are that tight or at least where it's more reasonable to assume so. I wouldn't consider the $215s to be like this, but with certain players making that raise it would be, and it could be closer to reality in a $400+ buyin on Party.


So first...lets make a relatively tight reasonable range for the first player, and then assume they play perfectly to our allin (although they fold all AQ hands because thats too absurd). Then we slowly make their range a bit wider after solving for the first case, until we get a good feel for whats really going on in such situations.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Okay then. I'll see what I can do.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

I'd work on it myself but umm Ive gotta goto bed in a few minutes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

btw Im workin on it.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

So am I, got all the chip counts for ICM now.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Ok, my math...assuming he has the tightest possible range (99+ and AJ+), and assuming no one will call behind you (which should happen like 10-15% minimum) is as follows:

Chip EV = 855. This leaves us -30 from where we began the hand. This is a relatively small amount of EV to be down IMO, against a player with such unrealistically tight standards. I am too lazy to do the work, but I suspect that just adding 88 to the mix would make it +EV. Also note that this system assumes that our opponents call perfectly (except fold with AQs+AQ). That means they will fold TT+99 always.

Anyway after doing this math, hopefully accurately, I'm not really convinced one way or another that moving allin is correct. Too many bozos will raise with A5s there, but many of them will limp too, and will limp with stuff like 99, AQ etc. I'd like some others to back my work up though because I don't usually do this stuff by hand.

In a $215 against an opponent that I recognize as tight, I suspect that moving allin here with JJ is simply a clear -EV play, especially with the prospect of calls behind you by QQ+

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

This is as far as I have got so far

0.085 * (5/6) * 0.8 = 0
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.8 = 0.0541

0.065 * (5/6) * 0.44 = 0
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.44 = 0.0541

0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1843
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1847
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1429 (small stack calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1811 (big stack calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1823 (sb calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1807 (bb calls)

0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1843
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1847
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1429 (small stack calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1811 (big stack calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1823 (sb calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1807 (bb calls)

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Awesome you did the stuff after the hero! I was too lazy...anyway time for bed for real now, see ya!

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Ok got the no overcall bit and if he really is raising 99+,AJ+ and only calls QQ+,AK+ then curtains is right

No overcall
0.85

evF Push/fold 0.1083
evL Push/lose 0
evW Push/win 0.176

Assume raising with 99+,AJ+

6 ways for 99,TT,QQ,KK,AA = 30
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
8 ways for AJ = 8
Total = 71 / 1225 = 5.8%

Assume calls with QQ+,AK+

6 ways for QQ,KK,AA = 18
16 ways for AK = 16
Total = 34 / 1225 = 2.8%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = 0.517
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.3619 (against QQ+,AK+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.517 * 0.1083) + (0.483 * 0 * 0.6381) + (0.483 * 0.176 * 0.3619) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0559911 + 0 + 0.0307643952 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.0867554952 ]

0.0867554952 is already less than EV/fold which is 0.0935.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

So it seems my original assumption that him folding more is actually bad for you was right. I thought it was a bit strange how the higher his fold % got, the looser his range had to become but looking at this maths again it makes perfect sense.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

tigerite you are awesome! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I don't get a word of all the calculations, but it's still interesting. So we now know that if he minraises a tight range, and calls with an even tighter range, it's -EV to push? Makes sense, because you'll lose your stack relatively often, and there are not so many chips in the pot already that it becomes +EV, right? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

But if you give villain a realistic (looser) range, it's +EV? If you have 600-700 chips it's +EV?

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Well I didn't complete the "what happens after you" part for when people overcall with QQ+,AK+. Actually, I'll do that now I guess.

0.15 * [ (0.166667 * 0.638 * 0.0541) + (0.833333 * 0.638 * 0) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1843) + (0.166667 * 0.362 * 0.1847) + .... ) ]

Well we can straight away take out 0.83333 * 0 as that's just 0 and everything else is multiplied by 0.166667 so

0.15 * 0.166667 * { [ 0.362 * (0.1843 + 0.1847 + 0.1429 + 0.1811 + 0.1823 + 0.1807) ] + [ 0.638 * 0.0541 ] }

= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ (0.362 * 1.056) + (0.638 * 0.0541) ]
= 0.15 * 0.16667 * [ 0.382272 + 0.0345158 ]
= 0.010419695

From before

0.85 * 0.0867554952
= 0.07374217092

So the actual answer is

0.010419695 (when overcalled) + 0.07374217092 = 0.08416186592

The overcall chance costs you maybe 0.25% $EV. Not a lot but slightly significant.

Anyway it would take me really too long to work out if you have less chips! But I would guess the push would be much better then, yes. Also if he has a looser range we have to define which of that range he calls with. Gimme those two ranges and I can do it.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Nice work tigerite.

The only thing is that I think by using Curtains' parameters, we're giving our opponents way too much credit. (I know that they are valid at his level, but this is a 55.)

Not only do guys mini-raise with weak hands, but we are also giving them way too much credit for reacting perfectly to our push. Do you really think that pushing is bad at a 55, or just that pushing is bad against top notch opposition? Cuz I'm pushing this all day. Just my opinion.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Well like I say if you gimme a range for a raise and call then I can do it. This goes for the ones to act after you too I guess (but only for what they call with). Now I have all the ICM for the chips when you win/fold/call (I have gone for fold of 0.0935 instead of the SNGPT way which is to assume they all fold to the original raiser, because it's too complicated here if we are assuming ones after Hero call a push with QQ,AK and whatever.. so it's "up in the air" about what happens next, therefore I just assume chip counts as they are in a vacuum with the 175 up for grabs by anyone else) it should be easy.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Let's assume its not a good player (why would a good player minraise UTG in a $55?). There are looser players, but this is at least looser than curtains' ranges.

Range: 77-AA, A9s+, AT+, KQ He calls with ehm... TT+, ATs+, AJ+ . EDIT: I think AJs+, AQ+ is better.

I hope they make sense.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

I think it's easily +EV now. Should I give tighter ranges? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

No overcall
0.85

evF Push/fold 0.1083
evL Push/lose 0
evW Push/win 0.176

Assume raising with 77+,A9s+,ATo+,KQ

6 ways for 77,88,99,TT,QQ,KK,AA = 42
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ,AT,KQ = 64
4 ways for A9s = 4
8 ways for AJ = 8
Total = 119 / 1225 = 9.714%

Assume calls with TT+,ATs+,AJo+

6 ways for TT,QQ,KK,AA = 24
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
8 ways for AJ = 8
4 ways for ATs = 4

Total = 69 / 1225 = 5.633%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = (119 - 69) / 119 = 0.420168
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.505928 (against TT+,ATs+,AJo+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.420168 * 0.1083) + (0.579832 * 0 * 0.494072) + (0.579832 * 0.176 * 0.505928) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0455041944 + 0 + 0.051630170960896 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.097134365360896 ]
= 0.0825642105567616

Combine with the 0.010419695 (when overcalled) from before

= 0.0929839055567616

Still less than 0.0935, so it's still a fold, but extremely marginal now.

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

Meh.. Is it +EVer when he folds ATs and AJo ?

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

No it's actually less.

Assume calls with TT+,AJs+,AQo+

6 ways for TT,QQ,KK,AA = 24
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
2 ways for AJs = 2

Total = 59 / 1225 = 4.816%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = (119 - 59) / 119 = 0.504202
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.475068 (against TT+,AJs+,AQo+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.504202 * 0.1083) + (0.495798 * 0 * 0.524932) + (0.495798 * 0.176 * 0.475068) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0546050766 + 0 + 0.041454646510464 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.096059723110464 ]
= 0.0816507646438944

+ 0.010419695 = 0.0920704596438944

Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop
 

I have a headache now. Can someone just tell me the final answer?