NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

It's "possible" we may have three plays on Saturday. I don't have opening lines yet but needed to give a heads up because I am traveling all day Friday for the holidays and may have limited access to my parent's computer.

YTD: 3-1

These "may" be plays. Watch the opening lines.

(5) Memphis
Mississippi

If Mississippi opens as a favorite and this does end up being a play, wait until close to game time to wager as the line would probably move in our favor.

(14) UCLA
Michigan

This one almost certainly will be a play. Michigan is the top vote getter of the unranked teams in both polls. In other words, they would be ranked 26th.

(25) Ohio St
Iowa St

Since Iowa St was favored against Iowa, I don't see how they wont open as a favorite against number 25.

I will update Friday night if I can get to a computer. Keep an eye on the opening lines.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Yea I was paying attention. NO WAY Memphis will be a dog. The other 2 are possible, especially with Michigan being very close to being ranked in the polls and Ohio St not being ranked on the AP Top 25.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

I have to agree with you here. Mississippi has beaten nobody and were blown out by 53 (not a typo) against New Mexico. There is no way Memphis is less than a 5 point favorite and is more likely to be favored by 10+.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

even regardless of this system, i'm on michigan, they should win this game by 8-10 points

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Looks like Michigan -5.5 is the only play.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Limited access here. Just grabbed Michigan -6.

GL

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

I'm actually on Ohio St and Michigan tomorrow. GL!

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

it hurts me to bet against my own team.. but im on michigan today

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Ouch, line move killed me...could only get it at -8 but I figured I'd throw 1 unit on it for the sake of the system...I gotta start getting out of bed earlier.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Good luck on this one guys. I couldn't pull the trigger. Too much chalk and Michigan is a pretty public team themselves.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

looking bad for us today...wow, UCLA cant miss a 3 and michigan cant make 1...the story of college basketball

Why wasn\'t the Louisville/Kentucky game on this list?
 

Ranked on the road, unranked is favored.... why didn't you save me a bet by including Louisville vs. Kentucky? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I took Michigan at -6. Iowa St opened as a dog, so I guessed that it wasn't a play under your system. I passed on Miss as well.

Re: Why wasn\'t the Louisville/Kentucky game on this list?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ranked on the road, unranked is favored.... why didn't you save me a bet by including Louisville vs. Kentucky?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a real good reason for this.

Both teams are ranked.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ouch, line move killed me...could only get it at -8 but I figured I'd throw 1 unit on it for the sake of the system...I gotta start getting out of bed earlier.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt this system is +EV in the long run if you would lay an extra 2.5 pts every time...I would have stayed away if you didn't get a bet in early.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Here's a play I'm playing tonight that follows the unranked-ranked general logic (but doesn't fall under the system).

UNLV -1.5 vs Texas Tech
UNLV hasn't been good in years. They have lost 5 games in a row and are 2-5 on the year. Meanwhile Bob Knight's Texas Tech is a public team that went to the Sweet Sixteen last year. They are not off to a great start but they have a winning record and they played Wake Forest pretty close. Surely they're not going to lose tonight on national TV to crappy UNLV team right? How the hell is UNLV favored here? 2/3 of all bettors think the linesmakers have got it wrong and are betting on Tech. My money's going the other way.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

thanks for the good pick.
my knowledge of ncaa hoops lacks depth. I looked at the game because of this post. Did not bet on it before the game started but watch some during the NFL comercials. Then at half seen it was tied so checked the line. Was schocked to see UNLV -1 +145 jumped right on it blind for 1.5 Units seemed like a great value, glad I read this and missed the start [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Why wasn\'t the Louisville/Kentucky game on this list?
 

[quote
There's a real good reason for this.

Both teams are ranked.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw your other reply- I didn't check the polls and only Louisville had the ranking listed in the banner during the play of the game.

That will teach me to bet in a rush on something I don't know anything about. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

NoChance, my apologies. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] I should have trusted that you would have listed all applicable games.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
YTD: 3-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Now 3-3, because Iowa St wasn't a play, right?
[ QUOTE ]

(5) Memphis
Mississippi

(14) UCLA
Michigan


[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the good pick.
my knowledge of ncaa hoops lacks depth. I looked at the game because of this post. Did not bet on it before the game started but watch some during the NFL comercials. Then at half seen it was tied so checked the line. Was schocked to see UNLV -1 +145 jumped right on it blind for 1.5 Units seemed like a great value, glad I read this and missed the start [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Yah, Tech shot something like 70% for most of the 1st half. Came down to around 60% by the half. UNLV was around 35%. Yet the game was still tied. Final shooting % was a more even 55/45 and UNLV came away with the easy W.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
YTD: 3-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Now 3-3, because Iowa St wasn't a play, right?
[ QUOTE ]

(5) Memphis
Mississippi

(14) UCLA
Michigan


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

3-2. Miss was NOT a play

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
YTD: 3-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Now 3-3, because Iowa St wasn't a play, right?
[ QUOTE ]

(5) Memphis
Mississippi

(14) UCLA
Michigan


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

3-2. Miss was NOT a play

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wasn't Miss a play? Did they not open as a favorite? Or is it because NoChance didn't take them in the end?

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Miss was a huge dog. NoChance doesn't choose in any way which games fall under this trend and which don't.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

I must have looked at the line incorrectly.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

to clear things up, can someone post what the actual lines were in the 3 games in question as well as the results.
Thanks,
Lou

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

Michigan -5.5
Miss +9
Iowa St +1.5

None of the teams covered but only Michigan -5.5 was a play.

Re: NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/17 ???
 

thanks