AJo in the CO
 

The button is a very weak tight nut peddler. BB 80/50/1 over 50+ hands and has been donating. these players are complete opposite.

Party 2/4 (8 handed)
Hero is CO with AJo
folds to Hero who <font color="red"> raises </font>, <font color="red">Button 3 bets</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB caps</font>, Hero calls??, Button calls.

Flop for 12.5 SB's: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> BB bets </font>, Hero calls, Button calls

Turn for 7.5 BB's: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> BB bets </font>, Hero ????

Re: AJo in the CO
 

I think that if we are proceeding to the turn we should raise the flop. The promotion opportunities here are unbelievable.

Basically, if we continue to play it's because we think that a high percentage of the time we're beating BB because he's a lagtard. Therefore, we really need to try to promote our hand if we're going to play, because the Button has us beat here a vast majority of the time it would seem. If he's really weak and a nut peddler, I advocate the following line:

Raise the flop. If button calls, you are done with the hand on the turn. If button gets out of the way, be prepared to take the hand to showdown.

Sound cool?

Re: AJo in the CO
 

I think PF is ok given the overlay and action the BB will provide if you hit a good flop.

Fold the flop.

Weak tight nut peddlers only 3-bet the top 4 or 5 hands at most. You might have 3 A outs or you might be drawing to runner runner.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

Since BB is psychotic, I'd consider raising in an effort to get rid of Button. However, it's going to suck if Button's just sitting back waiting to pop the turn with his AA.

But BB probably just has something like K5o, right? And if he has pocket 2's instead, maybe we'll spike a 3 on the river.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

It should be very carefully noted that the pot already contains over $25.

Basically just forget about the BB. He has two cards. Who cares.

Can we get the nut peddlar to fold AK? If so, that alone is absolutely enough reason to raise this flop. If he won't fold AK, I agree that we are in in trouble.

Here's a challenge for you guys: How often does button have to fold AK, given that his three-betting range is JJ+ and AK, for it be correct to raise this flop? We can assume that BB's hand is something from approximately the top 30% of hands.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that if we are proceeding to the turn we should raise the flop. The promotion opportunities here are unbelievable.

Basically, if we continue to play it's because we think that a high percentage of the time we're beating BB because he's a lagtard. Therefore, we really need to try to promote our hand if we're going to play, because the Button has us beat here a vast majority of the time it would seem. If he's really weak and a nut peddler, I advocate the following line:

Raise the flop. If button calls, you are done with the hand on the turn. If button gets out of the way, be prepared to take the hand to showdown.

Sound cool?

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess the call on the flop was because:
-Button would raise an overpair and I could get out of the way
-If I raise the maniac might 3 bet because they are only small bets and it would get expensive to see a turn.
-it would be easier to get the button to fold a better hand with a turn raise and the big bet might shut the manac up so i can take a free showdown.

another thing, I felt bad about calling 2 bets back to me preflop. is this standard?

Re: AJo in the CO
 

I agree with raising the flop with try to isolate, but I also end spewing bigtime when I come in second best to the third player.

It's a tough hand and you don't have much equity on the turn.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

I think another way to play it is to call the flop and raise any non A or K flop if and only if the button doesn't raise the flop. And to fold the turn if button raises the flop.

That might be better, actually, but realize that it entails a MUCH higher financial risk in a situation where we do not rate to be in that good shape.

My main desire to raise the flop is that I think this particular opponent might be especially likely to fold AK on the flop here.

From just a very vague mental estimate, I think that I can say with a fair amount of confidence that if the button will fold AK here 50% of the time then raising is definitely correct. My sense is that button has to fold AK something like 40-45% of the time for the raise to be EV neutral.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think another way to play it is to call the flop and raise any non A or K flop if and only if the button doesn't raise the flop. And to fold the turn if button raises the flop.

That might be better, actually, but realize that it entails a MUCH higher financial risk in a situation where we do not rate to be in that good shape.

My main desire to raise the flop is that I think this particular opponent might be especially likely to fold AK on the flop here.

From just a very vague mental estimate, I think that I can say with a fair amount of confidence that if the button will fold AK here 50% of the time then raising is definitely correct. My sense is that button has to fold AK something like 40-45% of the time for the raise to be EV neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]
ok so i pokerstoved it up, put BB on random, me on AJo, and assumed villain had AK. our equity is ~16% before he folds and jumps to 60% if he folds. thats kickass. so you were pretty close with your estimate. so the point was with these players and our position we really need to try and isolate even with this measly hand. our hole cards are somewhat secondary to the players and board texture.
P.S. if we wait for the turn our equity goes from 10% to 56% if that means anything/

Re: AJo in the CO
 

Button also knows this pot is big and that it is worth pealing another card with AK. He'll at least call and probably reraise with JJ+ on this good flop for him.

Also, I'm not even sure he always 3-bets PF with AKo. So, I think the question we need to ask is:

What percent of the time does Button actually have AK and is actually willing to fold it on the flop?

Re: AJo in the CO
 

Am I the only one who wants to get out of this hand? BB might cap with trash but we should respect the raise of Button. We are behind and didn't hit the flop at all. If we can isolate BB with a raise then I continue with the hand - else I fold an unimproved turn. We most likely only have 3 outs to beat the button and we don't know whether they are Js or As.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who wants to get out of this hand? BB might cap with trash but we should respect the raise of Button. We are behind and didn't hit the flop at all. If we can isolate BB with a raise then I continue with the hand - else I fold an unimproved turn. We most likely only have 3 outs to beat the button and we don't know whether they are Js or As.

[/ QUOTE ]
the button would cap with anything, he doesnt care about card quality or whether he has a pair. he bets because he can. his cards are truly random. the tight guy is capable of folding better hands, and when this happens it is quite a coup. we have a good chance of winning unimproved against the maniac and a good chance of folding out the rock, so lets invest a BB and win a bunch more.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. If button calls, you are done with the hand on the turn. If button gets out of the way, be prepared to take the hand to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AJo in the CO
 

Grunching
Raise the turn and fold to a 3bet. This is a good opportunity to play the players and make BB fold a better hand. You might be ahead of BB. I bet many posters will tell you to fold but I will stand by my position on this one.

Now I've read other replies and have some comments. I like to just call this flop. If it's raised behind me I can get out cheap UI on the turn and if it's raised and 3bet I can get out on the flop. If button just calls I raise on the turn. If he stays in the pot or if the pot is 3bet I don't call any more bets UI. If BB calls and donks the river HU I call. I believe this is a better line than raising the flop.
I looked up a similar hand in "how good is your limit hold'em" and seeing all the similarities I now suspect OP got the hand from there. Did you?

Re: AJo in the CO
 

I think a fold preflop is actually good here. If button's pfr standards are as high as we're led to believe, there's a huge risk of domination. Having to call one bet back against this player is uncomfortable; two? Impossible.

As played, I think a raise on either the flop or the turn is best. I would prefer raising the flop here in most cases, especially because you note button to be weaktight. You have done nothing to indicate that you don't have a monster, as you could only call the preflop cap. Although a raise gives her a chance to call profitably with AK, she may just decide to concede the pot. If the chances of folding her on the flop and turn are equal, I'd much rather do it on the flop; it's cheaper, and she doesn't get to see the turn card.

PS. Is everybody c/fing an A on the turn?

Re: AJo in the CO
 

I like the turn raise idea here, but am I the only one that's worried that BB might have a better hand than ours? For this play to work, we have to not only have button holding AK, but for him to fold it. In addition, BB has to have some weird hand like KJ/KQ/QJ/J9/A9 for us to be able to win UI if a brick falls on the river. If button has TT+ he is probably 3-betting the turn, at which point we may have 3 A outs at best for a 15-1 shot. We can call or fold then.

If we don't raise the turn, then obviously we fold it. Personally, I would have folded PF. The way the hand played, I would have folded the turn. There's a good chance that button himself is waiting for the turn to raise, in addition to the fact that we may be badly beaten by crazy BB.

I think this play depends also on how button perceives our play. If he sees us as a real TAG, he may lay down his AK a good percentage of the time. The turn raise is a great play, but I would only do it if I had a decent made hand like middle pair that I felt was ahead of BB, and raising would force button to fold a better hand. Here we have nothing but A high, so we would have to win unimproved.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
am I the only one that's worried that BB might have a better hand than ours?

[/ QUOTE ]

The BB is a superloose and aggressive player, so her hand range is basically random. You might be able to remove some non-connecting offsuit cards below 9 from her range. This type of player is probably capping most offsuit connectors, any suited cards, any pair, any big cards, and any ace.

[ QUOTE ]
If we don't raise the turn, then obviously we fold it. Personally, I would have folded PF. The way the hand played, I would have folded the turn. There's a good chance that button himself is waiting for the turn to raise, in addition to the fact that we may be badly beaten by crazy BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you aren't raising this anywhere, then fold the flop (I also agree with the pf fold, btw). The point of this play is specifically to push button off a bigger A. We basically know that we're behind against the button's 3-betting range. Given that we called the flop, and button only called the flop, a turn raise is practically mandatory here. If the button was waiting until the turn to raise with overcards, then she will surely fold at this point (the T also acts as a bit of a scare card, especially if OP's stealing range is big). If the button was waiting to raise with an overpair, then we were in trouble anyway, and she'll either 3-bet or CC the turn, and you won't be putting any more bets into the pot.

Remeber the reads: BB is maniac and button is weaktight. Raising is the right play here. The question is whether it's better on the flop or turn.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

A raise appears to be +EV.

If-

Combos for button:

AA: 3 ways
KK: 6 ways
QQ: 6 ways
JJ?: 3 ways
AK: 12 ways

If this is his real 3-betting range, then he has AK 40% of the time on the flop.

Button knows this is a big pot and that BB is an idiot, so I don't think he folds to 2 cold on the flop very often with AK. But, I'll be optimistic and say he'd fold AK 50% of the time here. Also, lets assume when we fold the Button we have the 60% equity that silkyslim figured.

The EV of a raising is (I’m not sure this calc is correct):

Times button folds AK and we win:
(13.5SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button folds AK)*(.6 equity win %) = 1.6 SB

Times button folds AK and we lose:
(-2SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button folds AK)*(.4 equity lose %) = -0.2 SB

Times button does not fold AK and we win (assume we need a J to win):
(13.5SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button doesn’t fold AK)*(.12 hit the J) = .3 SB

Times button does not fold AK and we lose (assume we need a J and win):
(-2SB)*(.4 Button has AK)*(.5 Button doesn’t fold AK)*(.88 do not hit the J) = -0.4 SB

Times button has JJ-KK and we win (need A to win):
(13.5SB)*(.5 Button has JJ-KK)*(.12 hit the A) = 0.8 SB

Times button has JJ-KK and we lose (need A to win):
(-2SB)*(.5 Button has JJ-KK)*(.88 do not hit the A) = -0.7 SB

Times button has AA and we win (need runner J’s to win):
(13.5SB)*(.1 Button has AA)*(.001 hit runner J’s) = 0.0 SB

Times button has AA and we lose (need runner J’s to win):
(-2SB)*(.1 Button has AA)*(.999 do not hit runner J’s) = -0.2 SB

TOTAL = 1.6 - 0.2 + 0.3 - 0.4 + 0.0 - 0.2 = +1.1 SB (raise is quite +EV)

Note: When button has JJ+ and we draw out, I’m assuming we always beat the BB. This of course isn’t true, but the scenarios where we beat the Button with JJ+ and lose to the BB are rare and don’t affect the EV calc much, I think.

Analysis:

1. According to my calcs, if he folds AK 15% of the time, the raise would be EV neutral, any more than that and we’re in the money.

2. This calculation is heavily dependant on button having and folding AK. He would need to 3-bet PF with AK every time for the above to be correct. If he only 3-bets AK PF 50% of the time, then he only has AK 25% of the time on the flop. (Weak-tights surely don’t always 3-bet PF with AK). If he only has AK 25% of the time, then the play is neutral EV if he folds it more than 20% of the time on the flop. Still quite good I think.

3. Even if button doesn’t fold AK, we’re not in that bad of shape EV-wise with a raise. If this gives us fold equity against button and BB on the turn, then the flop raise alone may be +EV.

4. Ed Miller is right. It really does pay to play aggressively in large pots.

5. I could run this in yet another senario where we just call the flop and let Button stay in with AK, but it wouldn't be as good as raise to try to fold him out.

Re: AJo in the CO
 

I don't think you accounted for scenarios where we are 3-bet on the flop by button's pairs.

Anyway, can you run some calcs to compare this to raising on the turn, where button is more likely to fold AK?