A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

I was wondering if there is anybody here who can help me out with an issue. I recently went through a 105bb downswing today. I played 1,500 hands. I'm just curious if this is too much money dropped for so few hands..typically when I have had 150-200 bb down swings they transgressed through a period of 3-4k hands then began the upswing.

I play $1/2

Appreciate any feedback, not concerned one bit about my downswing just curious if this is "normal" varience for this level and time span.

Thank you

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

Yesterday I suffered a +100BB downswing @ 1/2 6max in ~1200 hands...Thats usually how my swings are, short and [censored]. I've never had one thats been long and drawn out

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

Thats about 7BB per 100 hands. Judging purely based on past experience I would say that is pretty high, but not unheard of.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

normal

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

normal

98.5BB downswing in ~800 hands yeterday.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've never had one thats been long and drawn out

[/ QUOTE ]

They suck trust me.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

xGoreDudex,

from experience I can say I've had downswings in that range, and I would bet lots of people have too. The more I play, the more I learn that variance seems to be a synonym for "ouch" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

if you're at a wild table, 3-4 big pots lost and that's a big chunk of your downswing right there, same if you win them, boom, big dollaz. Ride it out, keep your head up, good luck,


BBB

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

I had a 100 BB downswing last night over about 900 hands last night, but had a 120 BB upswing early this afternoon of about 500 hands.

Hitting top set and having someone 8-bet you on the turn with KK always helps.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

I don't like these threads.

There is such a thing as running hot, thinking you're
good, then having reality set in. This is also the source
of every "OH MY GOD I CASHED OUT NOW I CAN'T WIN"
post.

Swings are far more terrible online; it is more aggressive
and the players are better for the level than live. Yes,
you can go on an insane losing streak, but I think it is
irresponsible of experienced players to shrug off the
losses of a newer player as variance.

The time to create and correct habits is early, and placating
the ego of the beginner and possibly steering his line of
thought wrongly is contrary to the goals of these forums.

-ZEN

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

My downswings usually happen rapidly as well. Try this though. Once you are down 30BB, reduce the number of tables you are playing. When you are down 60BB, drop limits. When things turn around, move back up.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

This may be the kiss of death, but I'm profitable at both .50 - $1 and $1 - $2.

My BB per 100 is just over 3 at .50 -$1 and it's 1.75 at $1 -$2. Even though I could make slightly more money playing $1-$2, I spend more time at the lower limit because the higher edge leads to fewer and less severe downturns and thus greater enjoyment and mental stability. If I ever get the $1 -$2 edge to the point where the difference in profits gets more meaningful, I may move up permanently.

However, I think big downswings like this are more common when you are playing with a thinner edge. If you are uncomfortable with that kind of volatility, move down.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

[ QUOTE ]
My downswings usually happen rapidly as well. Try this though. Once you are down 30BB, reduce the number of tables you are playing. When you are down 60BB, drop limits. When things turn around, move back up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think reducing the # of tables is something I'll look into, but I'm not sure I agree with dropping down in limits during one of these downers

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I'm not sure I agree with dropping down in limits during one of these downers

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. I only suggest this because he is questioning his downswing. If you question your downswing, you have not experienced enough (or deep enough) downswings at your limit and recovered to know for sure whether you are a winning player at that limit. Dropping limits may add a layer of comfort and some time to look for errors in your play--plus build confidence IMO.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

Hmm...title say "content." Me open thread, there no content. Make Ignignokt mad. Ignignokt smash thread. Rrrrrrr...

...Unless you mean to say you content with downswing. That okay.

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

I use poker tracker for this. Rather than guessing whether you've just been unlucky or you're leaking, go look. How many times did your pairs turn into a set on the flop? How many times did you hit the flush on the turn/river? I know what those numbers ought to be. I can go back into PT and see what actually happened.

Recently, I went through a 200bb downswing. I stepped away from teh keyboard for a while (swearing and cursing the whole way), then went back and started studying the hands in PT. What I learned is that there was both leaks and bad cards. From a bad card standpoint, my pocket aces won 8% of the time and was actually a money loser for me. My pairs were not turning into sets 1:8.5. My four to a flush drawers were not completed 36% of the time.

That being said, I was also leaking. I was betting/raising in many places where I should've been c/r or even fold. I had some very misplaced aggression going on and I studied those hands to understand what was going wrong.

In the end, I went back to lower limits to rebuild my bankroll and fix the leaks. I figure by the time I have my bankroll up to appropriate levels, I'll also have cemented some of those leaks.

Hope that helps
~Jeff

Re: A Genuine question about downswings (content)
 

normal.

yday i had a downswing of 100+ in 300 hands. set over set, flush over flush AA/KK cracked. you name it i got it. i wouldn't call that a downswing though. it was just variance at work. i proceeded to have a 100+ upswing in the next 700 hands to break even at 1k hands.

i just call these swings 'ticks', if it's not over multiple thousands of hands. otherwise, it was just a bad session.