A rare drawing hand for me
 

I need a line for this hand. Call or reraise the flop? How do you play if an A or K comes on the turn? A diamond? Villain had about 40% VP, and I typcially passive. However, I had been opening a lot of pots (good run of hands), so that might factor into this hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($25)</font>
<font color="#C00000">CO ($24.25)</font>
Button ($33.45)
SB ($3.75)
BB ($29.35)
UTG ($25.87)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($2.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $5</font>

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

call, reevaluate turn.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

I'll call becasue you're not deep enought to raise &amp; not push.

I'd consider raising if effective stacks were quite deep becasue a diamond is killing your action.

Lead if improved regardless.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

I agree, call and see what the turn brings. If its a blank, and villian is still firing, let it go.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

Am I the only one who advocated telling him to go F himself with his weak check-raise and putting him all-in? How many cards do you want to see here?

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who advocated telling him to go F himself with his weak check-raise and putting him all-in? How many cards do you want to see here?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] That's exactly what I did.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

I don't think you're drawing to a live ace here (or at least you should consider that). If a king hits I'm happy. I would like to know is PFA though. $3 bucks to call a $9 pot you're getting about the right odds to call.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who advocated telling him to go F himself with his weak check-raise and putting him all-in? How many cards do you want to see here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet, Freerollin and I agree on something. I don't see how you have much of a choice here. You have a drawing hand that is a stastical favorite over most of your opponents likely holdings, plus you get some FE with a reraise. BUT, you must see both of the last to cards to be the favorite. I would only just call if there was some reason to believe you could see a cheap river card, and I haven't heard one yet. Seems like you have the first part of TAG play (the T), now just buck up and get on board with the second part (the AG).

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

Pushing isn't bad here, but if he's passive and his raise is probably a big hand, then I call.
If I'm calling, I probably lead if I hit, and if I blank I check and evaluate or perhaps try and block the turn.

Of course, a lot of times in this situation I don't even think I just stick it in there.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

two lines:
a. push
b. call; all in on any turn. b is a TWP line and his reasons are:

sets are calling any flop bet but may pay you off even if you hit on the turn

you don't want to fold out a smaller flush draw

on the turn you have good equity against any marginal hand and so a push of a turn even if it is a blank for you will usually win you the hand.

if on the turn you read the guy as really strong, you can fold if he does not give you odds to call

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

Two questions define this hand for me. How passive is he and how likely is your ace still live?

12 Outs:
Push, fold =&gt; 9.35x
Push, win =&gt; .45(1-x)48.5
Push, lose =&gt; .55(1-x)0.0
Break even =&gt; 21.8-12.4x = 21.2
x &lt; 4.6% =&gt; +EV

15 Outs:
Push, fold =&gt; 9.35x
Push, win =&gt; .55(1-x)48.5
Push, lose =&gt; .45(1-x)0.0
Break even =&gt; 26.6-17.3x = 21.2
x &lt; 31.1% =&gt; +EV

Doesn't look good to me. How aggresive is he? If you call and catch on the turn can you get another $7 from him, assuming you fold in you miss?

--Jubei

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

hey Mikey--try it, you'll like it!

Against any underpair you are a fav. on the flop; add FE into the equation and you are ev+. I usually do A; but just because I remember after it is too late to try B. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

I think villains hand range is 109+, jj, qq, 1010, 66, 55, 56, Diamond draw, and a few other hands. 101, 66, 55 are all unlikely (but possible) so a push isnt bad here.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

This is a hand I'm willing to go all-in with on the flop. Two overcards and the nut flush draw.

I count two overcards as 4 outs (Ace may be good, may not be. Same with the King). The flush draw is 9 outs. Gives us approximately 13 outs.

13 x 4 - 4 = ~48% to win by the river.

I push this every time all the time, for several reasons;

- If I'm seen folding to a raise often, people will continue to do it. I refuse to be pushed around.
- He may fold. Although I think it'd be rare, it's been known to happen when they're facing a decision for all of their money.
- Even if he calls with a set or AT/KT, you've still got a very good percentage to hit a flush and win.
- He may be raising with QQ or JJ, in which case you're a small favorite to win.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

[ QUOTE ]

12 Outs:
Push, fold =&gt; 9.35x
Push, win =&gt; .45(1-x)48.5
Push, lose =&gt; .55(1-x)0.0
Break even =&gt; 21.8-12.4x = 21.2
x &lt; 4.6% =&gt; +EV

15 Outs:
Push, fold =&gt; 9.35x
Push, win =&gt; .55(1-x)48.5
Push, lose =&gt; .45(1-x)0.0
Break even =&gt; 26.6-17.3x = 21.2
x &lt; 31.1% =&gt; +EV


[/ QUOTE ]

This is just plain wrong. Please ignore. If villian always calls our push we only need to win 43% of the time to break even which we get by having 12 or 15 outs. We are only in trouble if both (unlikly?) A and K are not outs. But, I don't have time to re-work the numbers. Fast math is wrong math.

--Jubei

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

[ QUOTE ]
two lines:
a. push
b. call; all in on any turn. b is a TWP line and his reasons are:

sets are calling any flop bet but may pay you off even if you hit on the turn

you don't want to fold out a smaller flush draw

on the turn you have good equity against any marginal hand and so a push of a turn even if it is a blank for you will usually win you the hand.

if on the turn you read the guy as really strong, you can fold if he does not give you odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are saying call and check/raise all-in on any turn card? The one point I disagree with is getting smaller flush draws to fold. It seems they would be more likely to fold if we lead push the turn, but I agree with you if we check/raise the turn.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

Yes.

Check/raise all in oop, though in this hand you might not be deep enough to get him to fold a pair if you check raise all in if he pots the turn.

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

I push almost all the time with those stacks and that flop.
Calling and missing sucks when you have to fold the turn.

Results
 

I pushed. He instacalled with AT. I didn't get help.

Re: Results
 

make a note, then 3bet stack him when he has TPTK and you have 2pair or better.

Re: Results
 

semi-bluffing is highly overrated at these stakes. All you are doing here is burning money because none of these opponents are folding top pair. A lot of these villains will pay you off even if you hit so i don't think the play is that +EV because of the extremely low FE against most villains and the high variance associated with putting in your money on a coin flip.

Re: Results
 

it's a partial semi bluff, b/c you don't mind if he folds here, but it's also about getting paid off when you make your hand. If you hit your king or diamond falls off (especially a paint diamond), can you still stack him?

These considerations, plus the fact that you have 12 live outs twice and there is money in the pot already (so you're coin flipping, but getting an overlay) have to make pushing +EV.

Re: Results
 

It is +EV. It's not the most EV+. If you like to just push when you're behind, or even as a small favorite, with 0 fold equity then good luck to you. I don't know what limit you are playing but you will find that semi-bluffs do not work as well as advertised. It's good to read TOP, but not all of those concepts apply to beating fish at 25NL on Party. Personally i haven't found semi-bluffing in raised pots to be very effective even up to 200NL. Yes, it's a valuable skill, but pick your spots because the vast majority of people are not folding top pair in this spot, IMO.

Re: Results
 

I do agree that some will not fold TPTK to a 3bet.

Assuming fold equity is 0 and pushing is still +EV:

what play do you like instead? If you call and miss, what do you do? If you call and hit a diamond, especially the J or Q, or your king, do you still get it all? any?

Re: Results
 

OOP, i like a check/call or fold depending on the size of the bet. I am far from being a nit but an inability to fold hands like these is why most people, including myself, are not winning very much money with hands like AKs AK AQs. The other issue in these hands is you probably have someone dominated so on Q72 flop you dont know if you are agains KQ or AQ, thus you really can't even confidently play those outs if they come.
A play that i have found efffective against players who you have 0 FE against is pushing any card that makes your/straight flush because oftentimes they will convince themselves you are bluffing.

Re: Results
 

push..not even close since hero is oop

Re: A rare drawing hand for me
 

I push. Get it in now.

Re: Results
 

You only have to get a fold 5% of the time for this push to be ev+. Well played, FISH [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
You only have to get a fold 5% of the time for this push to be ev+. Well played, FISH [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

But these guys never fold after minraising the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]