Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

I’m on the button and everyone folds to me in a 6max 2/4 game. I raise to 12 with JTo. A very tight SB calls the bet, and before BB acts, I say out loud to my computer “this is a great place for a big squeeze bet.” Surely enough, BB raises to 55. So now there’s ~$80 in the pot, I’ve got about 400, SB’s got around 400, and BB’s got around 130 left behind.

I’m not worried about SB. To this point, he’s shown that he doesn’t like to slowplay his big hands. I’m 90% sure that he’s folding to BB’s bet, let alone any additional action from me.
BB seems to be a decent short stack player who is good at taking advantage of situations such as this one, where it appears that there’s dead money on the table that can be easily scooped up with a little aggression.
I have not been playing many hands to this point. Also, I’ve only been at the table for about 25 hands.

Assuming that SB would fold, here’s what went through my head: putting him in will probably get him to fold out JJ and down about 75% of the time. Maybe he folds QQ 30% of the time. He never folds AA or KK. If he calls with 2 overs about 50%, I’m only a 2-1 dog. He always folds rags. And in this situation, he has rags more than usual.

As you may have guessed, I put him in. I like my read here, but I still feel as though my overall reasoning is quite incomplete. Please let me know what I missed in my thought process, or what was flat out wrong. Or hell, if you likee… that’s good to hear, too.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

I don't know where you're playing but people in the Party 2/4 6-max have no idea what a squeeze play is.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

just let it go

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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I don't know where you're playing but people in the Party 2/4 6-max have no idea what a squeeze play is.

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Prima. And I'm uncomfortable with that kind of blanket assumption about all of my opponents. I think that if you're watching, you can get some feeling for the depth of another player's education and overall skill. Sure, I don't KNOW what he knows, but I do know he's picked up a lot of pots uncontested when it looks like he's got some good FE.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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just let it go

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based on what, exactly?

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

Does your play align itself with the Fundamental Theory of Poker? You yourself say you are a 2:1 dog; and your reraise will again give you odds of 1:2, 1:3 depending on your bet. What part of this don't you understand.
This is all about squeezing BB to keep him in line. Wait for a better opportunity.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

He's raised to 55 from a 130 starting stack. I don't think he's folding anywhere near as often as you think he is for his last 75. You estimation of 75% for JJ and down is ludicrous in my opinion, particularly when you've characterized him as "a decent short stack player who is good at taking advantage of situations such as this one". People who play a short stack well are not putting in this much of their stack only to fold for the rest of it getting better than 2:1.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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This is all about squeezing BB to keep him in line. Wait for a better opportunity.

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What's the worst hand you put him in with?

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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This is all about squeezing BB to keep him in line. Wait for a better opportunity.

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What's the worst hand you put him in with?

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I know you aren't asking me, but I need 55+, AJ+ or KQ

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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This is all about squeezing BB to keep him in line. Wait for a better opportunity.

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What's the worst hand you put him in with?

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I know you aren't asking me, but I need 55+, AJ+ or KQ

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This is an open forum... thanks for stepping up!

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

This is not the right time to make this play. I think at best you are racing with the short stack so if you feel like it go ahead and make the play. I think you are putting to much thought into this hand, I think it is a better lay down than squeeze play. Just my 2 cents

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

When the BB raises to 55 and is short this is not a bluff, most likely 77-1010 or AK maybe even JJ-AA. All of which he is going to call your bet with, which means at best 50-50. No way he makes this re-raise with A10, you only have AJ. I fold and find a better spot

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

Doesn't a sqeeze play imply that 1) an early position player initially raised with a solid hand.. 2) you call then 3) the SB reraises to 55 squeezing the early player who probably has a solid hand to fold because he is unsure of what YOU called with (might push after he calls..etc.)

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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When the BB raises to 55 and is short this is not a bluff, most likely 77-1010 or AK maybe even JJ-AA. All of which he is going to call your bet with, which means at best 50-50. No way he makes this re-raise with A10, you only have AJ. I fold and find a better spot

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OP has JTo

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

there is no way he's folding TT-AA, AK, AQ...he may even call with 99...i don't see any point in giving a short stack action pf with a hand like JTo

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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BB raises to 55.

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there’s ~$80 in the pot

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BB’s got around 130 left behind.

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Just fold. If he's any good, he's not folding any A, let alone a decent PP.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

mindflyer is right, this is not even a properly executed squeeze play. A squeeze play is where you are squeezing the caller of the initial raiser in between yourself and the inital raiser.

This is a squeeze play Hero raises to 12, laggy SB raises to 35 (could mean any two), loose bb calls (perceived weakness), you PUSH. SB folds, bb folds. The thinking is if you can get the inital raiser to fold so well the caller.

All your doing in this siutation is isolating the shortstack which is what the shortstack wants as he is happy to coinflip headsup with the chance of doubling up. Thing is with JT you are quite possibly way behind a LARGE part of his range. At best you are a slight dog in a coinflip here and very rarely is the shortstack ever folding as he is committed.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

You can't apply any sophisticated moves on these guys.

They beat you into the pot with ATo, sometimes Kj.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

"Just fold. If he's any good, he's not folding any A, let alone a decent PP. "

Exactly my thought as well, you are putting to much thought into this play when you know it is an easy laydown.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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mindflyer is right, this is not even a properly executed squeeze play.

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I meant the HE was squeezing. Seeing this, I basically try to bluff the bluffer here.

Sorry for the confusing language.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

if SB pushes and BB calls do you call getting 5:2? before or after you puke on your screen?

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

Let's say you get called 50% of the time and you're a 2.5-1 dog on average (when you get called). I think this is very generous. I don't think the numbers are that good for you but let's go with them!

If you fold you lose $12.

If you push:
50% of the time you win $67
14.3% of the time you win $197
35.7% of the time you lose $142
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average win of $11

again, the numbers probably are not this good for you but i think the play is fine as long as you don't do it very often.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

Wow... you might want to take a moment to revise this post.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

i think you get called way more than 50% of the time...

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i think you get called way more than 50% of the time...

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If that's the only thing you see wrong with this post, you're not looking hard enough.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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Let's say you get called 50% of the time and you're a 2.5-1 dog on average (when you get called). I think this is very generous. I don't think the numbers are that good for you but let's go with them!

If you fold you lose $0.

If you push:
50% of the time you win $79
14.3% of the time you win $209
35.7% of the time you lose $173
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average win of $7.63

again, the numbers are nowhere near this good for you but i think the play is horrible.

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Hate to do it but...FYP

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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i think you get called way more than 50% of the time...

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If that's the only thing you see wrong with this post, you're not looking hard enough.

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Do you mean info is missing or my play is awful? Or both?

Probably both. I can live with that. If I thought the play was perfect, I never would have posted it...

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

Big_Jim is referring to Aggie's post not yours.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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i think you get called way more than 50% of the time...

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If that's the only thing you see wrong with this post, you're not looking hard enough.

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Big jim, can you please elaborate and tell me what was wrong with my math or my logic?

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

Ok. So here's why I posted this hand:

I knew that most people would fillet me for repopping a guy when he's getting such good odds to call. I knew this at the time, but chose to go with my gut anyway. This is the first time that I have ever made this particular move, and it was 100% read based. Regardless, I agree with most people that there are better times to give this a shot, and I'll do so.

However, let me just add a few things that no one has touched on and I think are a key to the hand. First of all, my hand can't look like anything other than AA or KK to this guy. Unless he's got one of these hands, then he can't figure that 2.25-1 is a good price for a call (figuring that his hand is probably at least a 4-1 dog against AA). That's why I think that I have decent FE. That's why I reasoned hands such as KJ and AQ are probably in the muck pretty quickly. But the true key here is that I think there's a much better than average possibility that he's squeezing me with a non-premium hand. And actually I love his move. I squeeze with any two cards in his situation a high percentage of the time. And from what I saw, he was that type of player who is happy to put on a squeeze with so-so cards.

Also, I suspected (but didn't KNOW) that the math probably made it realtively close. As Big Jim says, I probably overestimated my FE here. That was a mistake.

But anyway, thanks for all the feedback. The great thing about posting here is that I always hear reasoning that I couldn't have anticipated, which will improve my game in a number of different situations.

Oh, and BTW... this is my 700th post! Wahoo!

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

i could be wrong, but i think my post corrects the math errors.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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...my hand can't look like anything other than AA or KK to this guy....

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I think this is completely and totally wrong. Your hand just looks like something willing to play for $130 all-in preflop. If you need AA or KK to do this legitimately, I think you're missing a lot of good opportunities.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

MrFeelNothin

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If you fold you lose $0.

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Not true....you've already got $12 dollars in the pot for a net loss on the hand of $12. You seem to think that you can't lose money that you've already put in the pot. Not true. When you look at the hand history you will see that you've logged a loss of $12. At the same time when you win a hand and consider you're net win, you don't consider the money that you put in the pot.

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If you push:
50% of the time you win $67
14.3% of the time you win $197
35.7% of the time you lose $185 (i don't know how i came up with $142)
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average loss of $4.37

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fixed you're post and mine

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again, the numbers are nowhere near this good for you but i think the play is horrible.

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My estimate still seems fairly reasonable to me given the OP. If OP made a mistake on this hand, i don't think it was a big one. How often do you think OP's allin gets called?

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

except........at the point in time at which we are making our decision the $12 is no longer ours. it is the property of the pot. we can't decide, oops raising was a bad idea lets take it back. its irrelevant where it came from, its in the pot.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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i could be wrong, but i think my post corrects the math errors.

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I think you're wrong (although my original math was wrong also....See my post with the corrected math.)

where we're in conflict is how we're handling the $12 OP already has in the pot. I wouldn't be shocked if i'm wrong but don't think that i am.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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...my hand can't look like anything other than AA or KK to this guy....

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I think this is completely and totally wrong. Your hand just looks like something willing to play for $130 all-in preflop. If you need AA or KK to do this legitimately, I think you're missing a lot of good opportunities.

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I think the only thing that qualifies as a "legitmate" hand is the one that wins in the very specific context of that moment in the game. I'm not going to consult my starting hand chart every time I think it's right to put my chips in the middle. It sounds like you are saying that this move is only good if I have "X" hand or better. I think that in the abstract, most people would agree that this play sequence is correct given the right situation with a hand as weak as 72o. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you are saying here...?

And I think that many players do strongly suspect AA or KK. Maybe you are not one of these players. But it is my experience however, that the third raise gets A LOT of respect in online games.

I'm not disagreeing that it was probably a -EV play. But I'm saying that elements of the play have merit to it and might be employed in other situations. I specifically posted this one because it doesn't seem black and white. And because I knew it would be controversial and (hopefully) interesting.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

I'm just saying that the third raise IN THIS CONTEXT is not strongly indicative of AA/KK. The short stacks reraise pot commits him so, if you're playing, its all going in anyway. Calling that raise and folding to his (expected) flop push is not a good line with any holding (in my opinion). If anything, your reraise looks even weaker (than a call would) as it looks like you are trying to push the third guy out and go headsup with the short stack.

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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My estimate still seems fairly reasonable to me given the OP. If OP made a mistake on this hand, i don't think it was a big one. How often do you think OP's allin gets called?

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I think that this is the crux of the debate here. It's all about our Fold Equity.

What do all y'all think our FE is here?

Given the number you post, when is our minimum holding in order to make the play profitable?

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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except........at the point in time at which we are making our decision the $12 is no longer ours. it is the property of the pot. we can't decide, oops raising was a bad idea lets take it back. its irrelevant where it came from, its in the pot.

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Yea...we're looking at this differently. You're doing a pure EV calculation. I'm comparing resluts from folding with results from pushing (from which you can determine the same thing). Anyway, you're way is better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff
 

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I think that this is the crux of the debate here. It's all about our Fold Equity.

What do all y'all think our FE is here?

Given the number you post, when is our minimum holding in order to make the play profitable?

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I used you're stellar reads to come up with FE of 50%. Nobody seems to agree with me though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]