Bellagio ME hand #3
 

stack down to 30k I am in sb, blinds 1k-2k with 300 antes

Joe Hacem limps utg, Alan Gohering limps MP, Mads Anderson (swedish expert poker and backgammon player ?) limps in late position. they all have between 100-200k in chips, I am in SB with 77, BB is real tight drunk swedish guy with about 100k in chips.

whats my play, shove it or call ? and why ...

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

Unless you have some kind of read on Hachem, I push because I like chips.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

You definitely need to make a move. You got only one guy behind you. I like shoving here because it gives you the best chance to win the pot and help your chip count. Usually, Hachem is the only one you have to worry about. Plus its better to make your gambles when you still have a decent number of chips because this double up will really help you. I don't like playing for a set here because your stack is too small and you're almost always throwing away an extra 1,000 and doubling up only gives you 29k.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

limping for 1k and missing gives me 29k, doubling shoving and getting called give me close to 70K, shoving and stealing gives me 41k

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

ummm... you guys ever here of goehring? he could be limping with any two (including AA here). Hes maybe the most unconventional player on the tourney trail. Not saying i think he has a monster, just saying i think the chances of hachem folding are more likely than goerhing. mads anderson is also supposedly very tricky... heresay, not firsthand.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

Easy easy push. You are likely to pick up over 1/3 your stack. And if called will probably be a favorite. This one is easy.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

lol mads anderson tricky... just what I wanted to hear....I will post a "tricky" mads anderson hand

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

pushzorz

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

This is a GREAT opp to try and steal. YOu have enough folding equity to put everyone to the test. If anyone is slow playing a big pair you are in trouble, but from the looks of it, I would put everyone behind you on weak hands, suited connectors, broadways, etc, etc.

Calling is OK too, since the drunk guy is very tight. You can complete and hope you hit a set. But,if you want to get agressive - PUSH! Your M is 6ish.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

This is a pretty easy push with your stack. Doubling up is good, but even if they all fold you get a pretty nice addition to your stack.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

Push. Mads probably called because of the snowball effect going on, he's seen 2 limpers, could be calling with a lot of holding (Small PP, connectors, etc.) Hachem limps UTG, okay kinda weird here, has he done this a lot? Beware the UTG limper? Meh, just put them to the test and be happy to get called with anything except 88-AA. How's your table image, tight I presume (?) Makes thsi even better.. your stack doesn't look like a desparation play either since you still have 15BB's.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

id make it like 12k and push any flop. Pushing makes no sense to me as it defines your hand much clearer, would u push with AA here?

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

Actually, I would push any hand I wanted to play in this spot because I got a stack equivalent to 8 big blinds w/ the antes. I don't want to tip off to anyone the strength of my hand.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I would push any hand I wanted to play in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats great and all, but that doesnt mean your opponents will assume this is true all the time.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

I think your short stacked enought that pushing and picking up what is in the pot is way more important than the small chance of winning a big pot with a set.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

So your saying that you fear an all in raise of 29k rather then a raise of 12k thats 1/3 of your stack? because I don't.

Or are you trying to fool ppl like me and telling them to please call because I have AA and thus getting them to fold better hands that way?

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

I'd call and play for set value.
I think a fold is better than a push.

Here's why I don't like a push.

Hero has no ability to fold out the following hands: 88++,Ak,AQ. Roughly 70 hands, 3 opponents, or 210 instances that hero gets called and shown one of these hands. If villain's ranges are about 300-400 hands then you are getting called 45%-55% [1-(70/300)^3 ]of the time by one player if you only consider these hands.

When you get called by these hands your EV is ~12K (-17K EV from your original 29K).
In the best case you fold out all the other hands and win 12K for a net loss of -5K EV.

In the worst case villain calls you down with many hands that have substantial equity against 77 such as JK, etc.

I doubt any of the big stacks are going to feel too squeezed by the push, and more than one call could be likely.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

Push.

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

[ QUOTE ]
So your saying that you fear an all in raise of 29k rather then a raise of 12k thats 1/3 of your stack? because I don't.

Or are you trying to fool ppl like me and telling them to please call because I have AA and thus getting them to fold better hands that way?

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant understand what you mean in this post at all.. could you please rephrase to make it a little clearer?

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

The more hands that we have beat that will call us, the higher our EV goes up so if you include hands like KJ,KQ etc... our equity is going to better then -17K for when we get called. Only with the range of 88+,AK,AQ is it negative EV. Most of those hands aren't calling hands but I hear they're tricky so its hard to say how often they will have those hands. And if there stacks are soo big whats to stop them from calling this w/ 66,55,44. I'm not sure what our equity is with FE and hand ranges but I think its definitely right around the 50/50 maybe a little higher or lower. But I'd rather take a 50/50 gamble at 30K then to sit around and get my money in with AA at 15K or 20K.

RESULTS: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

I thought about it for a couple seconds, this was the first time Hacehm limped in, and decided 88-JJ or AA were possible but not too likely, then with Groehing and Mads with lots of chips, 30k was nothing to there stacks, so in my mind, even if Hachem and Goerhing folded, there was zero percent chance Mads was going to fold with anyhand. During the day he had made some very marginal calls for more chips then this.

Gavin Smith had told me once, that it is soo important to stay in these tournaments, and not blowing urself out.

I thought I was getting called 100% of the time, either by Hachem's overpair or whatever 2 cards Mads has. I know there is an overlay, and I have most likely have the best hand, but I wanted to see a flop and play poker.

The flop came down QJ2 checked around, turn K, checked around, river J checked around, BB wins it with K3, and Hachem makes some comment that they all had an ace in there hand...77 came in second place...

Re: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

Hmm alright.... When a player has an all in stack, which I think he does right now with the antes and blinds and goes all in, I put him on such and such hand range. However, if the player just makes a normal raise, risking 1/3 of his stack, I think, wow, he really wants a caller, therefore, I put him on an extremely strong hand like AA or KK. So I was asking you, is part of your reason for raising 1/3 of your stack like that to make people think you have AA and therefore everyone folds? Another question I have is do you think by raising to 12K (you get called by one player) and then pushing any flop has more fold equity then raising all-in preflop. I hope that helps.

Re: RESULTS: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

I still think this is an easy push. K3 would have folded to your all in.

Re: RESULTS: Bellagio ME hand #3
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gavin Smith had told me once, that it is soo important to stay in these tournaments, and not blowing urself out.....I know there is an overlay, and I have most likely have the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]
I do not know Gavin Smith so I don't want to put words in his mouth.... but I can't imagine this situation is what he was talking about. Giving up early or self-destructing and putting in your money bad is one thing. Picking up much needed chips in a spot where you have a considerable overlay is quite a different beast.