Why bet/fold so much?
 

I notice that this forum advocates bet/folding the river a lot. However, the biggest mistake in limit hold'em is to fold to one bet on the river, particularly in a large pot.

Doesn't bet/folding the river also encourage opponents to bluff raise the river and be more tricky against you in general?

One way to test the EV of bet/folding the river, is there a filter for pokertracker to see how often you win after calling a river raise?

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

I think this is a really interesting point. In fact, in a lot of the situations where posters on this forum advocate a bet/fold line on the river, I find that I often use a bet/crying call line, just to guard against a bluff or an overplayed hand. I'm sure I make some bad river calls, but I think there is something to be said for erring on the side of calling too many river raises to guard against forfeiting an entire pot by folding a winning hand.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

i personally feel this is advocated too much. this line is very good against loose passives who dont bluff, which are numerous in small stakes games. this way, you dont miss value because they will call but not bet with a million hands you beat, and you still only pay one bet when behind, becasue they will only raise with hands that beat you. against tricky or tight opponents it may be better to check/call, on one hand to induce bluffs and on the other to eliminate the bluff raise. also, i think the general consensus is that river check-raises arent bluffs when OOP, so you can safely fold mediocre hands.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

Bet/folding is a very hard thing to get comfortable with and I, personally, took a long time before I could do it with the very limited sense of equanimity that I can now.

Yes, you are right, bet-folding too much encourages river bluffs. But, I think you might find that bet-folding is advocated in this forum far more than others precisely because of the nature of the small stakes game. In our games, our opponents generally are not of the sophistication to pick up on our tendencies (like bet-folding too much) or to be able to selectively and profitably bluff raise the river. (Those players who do bluff raise the river at the small stakes level tend to be very obvious about it and do it way too much, and so with reasonable statistics and observation we know who they are).

So, yes, your concern is a good one, but one that is, in my opinion, far more applicable in mid-stakes or higher-stakes games (and also in live rather than online) than in the Party 3/6-type universe in which we reside.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

I suck and don't do it enough

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
is there a filter for pokertracker to see how often you win after calling a river raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be an intersting stat to check out. I feel like a lot of time my bet/crying calls lose to the obvious suckout hand, but occasionally you win a big pot against some bizarre bluff and to be honest, I have no idea if I win money or lose money after calling that river raise.

That being said, the bet/fold line seems like one that should be carefully used against the correct opponent.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

I personally feel that I don’t use the bet/fold line enough. At Small Stakes I believe that we should, if anything, find it easier to bet/fold, than we do check/crying call.

The logic that ‘folding the river for one bet is the biggest mistake in hold’em’ is the root of a lot of player’s anxiety. Unless your judgement of the likelihood of holding the second best hand is drastically out, this is simply not the case.


For example.

You have middle pair on the river HU against a weak player who has bet. You judge that you are good about 10% of the time and the pot is 7BB. If your judgement is correct the EV is (0.10 x 7) + (0.90 x –1)= -0.2 : a fold.

But let’s say that your actual chance of winning was twice what you guessed. The EV of calling now is (0.20 x 7) + (0.8 x –1) = 0.6 : a call.

Folding after misjudging your winning chances by 100% is a 0.8BB error; a sizeable one, yes, but hardly ‘the biggest mistake in hold’em’. I think that some players instinctively believe that they have made a 7BB error here.


At Small Stakes I think that a bet/folding mistake is likely to be smaller than a check/crying call mistake, as river bluff raises are so rare. Just think how often you bet/crying call and find they were bluffing – I can’t remember many at 2/4 or 3/6. Our PT stats will also give us a fair indication of whether the opponent is capable of this play.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I suck and don't do it enough

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Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I suck and don't do it enough

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, you are right, bet-folding too much encourages river bluffs. But, I think you might find that bet-folding is advocated in this forum far more than others precisely because of the nature of the small stakes game. In our games, our opponents generally are not of the sophistication to pick up on our tendencies (like bet-folding too much) or to be able to selectively and profitably bluff raise the river. (Those players who do bluff raise the river at the small stakes level tend to be very obvious about it and do it way too much, and so with reasonable statistics and observation we know who they are).

So, yes, your concern is a good one, but one that is, in my opinion, far more applicable in mid-stakes or higher-stakes games (and also in live rather than online) than in the Party 3/6-type universe in which we reside.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the metagame considerations at Party are very minimal. People just don't stay at the table long enough.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

I don't bluff raise the river enough.[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

Okay so I ran some stats:

Of the 30,132 limit hands I have in poker tracker, I have had called a river bet raise 108 times. I have won or split 38 times.

<font color="red">Here is my hand distribution:</font>
Four of a Kind - 1 time (won 1)
Full House - 10 times (won 6, split 1)
Flush - 10 times (won 2)
Straight - 10 times (won 2, split 5)
Trips - 11 times (won 5)
Two Pair -42 times (won 11, split 2)
Pair - 20 times (won 1, split 1)
High - 0 times

<font color="blue">Overall, calling river raises with just a pair has cost me $100 ($150 for 18 losers, $50 for 2 winners)</font>

<font color="red">Here is my opponent hand distribution:</font>
Four of a kind - 3 times (I won 0)
Full House - 9 times (I won 2, split 1)
Flush - 27 times (I won 2)
Straight - 20 times (I won 0, split 5)
Trips - 12 times (I won 6)
Two Pair - 24 times (I won 10, split 2)
Pair - 10 times (I won 5, split 2)
High Card - 2 times (I won 2)
Total - 108 times (I won 28, pushed 10)

another note
 

I have bet folded 18 times. I've only folded top pair 3 times on the river.

The above stats would indicate that calling a river-raise with just a pair is not profitable so many I should reconsider.

paperboy

Re: another note
 

The problem is complete contextual. You don't just call because the pot is big. That is actually a possible leak. If people always call "because the pot is big" when they have very little chance to win (yeah, maybe that rock who wouldn't even raise AK/QQ preflop DOES have the flush on this four-flush board, but hell, I have top two, I'm calling), its a mistake you get the chance to make a fair amount in a SS game, and you really don't need to worry much about meta-game or people who raise the river as a bluff very often. It really depends on the way the hand plays out. So saying "calling the river raise with just a pair isn't profitable" really depends on the pair, the board, the player, and the hand. Just like everything else.

But yeah, as a default in a SS game, river raises are usually better than 1 pair hands.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

I also think that the dont fold for one bet might apply more to calling one bet not getting reraised after you bet. At least thats how i view it in the small stakes arena

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay so I ran some stats:

Of the 30,132 limit hands I have in poker tracker, I have had called a river bet raise 108 times. I have won or split 38 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you work out your total win/loss over these 108 examples?

Also, that must have been a hell of a scary board to call a river raise with quads [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't bluff raise the river enough.:p

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i dont think you have to lose sleep over this.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can you work out your total win/loss over these 108 examples?

Also, that must have been a hell of a scary board to call a river raise with quads [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of my examples were capped (otherwise I would have 5-bet).

here's my profit:

http://keshava.com/profit.jpg

Note that all of my river wins with just a pair were playing 6max.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I suck and don't do it enough

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Ditto. I need to get out of the bet/3-bet cycle I'm in.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't bluff raise the river enough.:p

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I have to agree here. But it never works at my limits anyway.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

Interesting discussion going on the Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded forum somewhat relating to this.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

Does check/crying call help induce a bluff if you have been leading out the entire way and it looks like the villain might have missed a draw somewhere along the line? Sometimes I'll do it against a tightish opponent, possible draws that did or didn't hit, and just 1 pair. Against the typical player I'll bet out for value, but against better players who won't pay off with a missed draw (but might bluff) or will simply raise if the draw hit, I'll check/call in this spot.

Good question, response
 

Just posting this so that more people read the above explanation.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

I have not read through yet, but I share this opinon a bit especially on turn play.

Only because of this. I believe bet fold lines have become very popular. As a result, check/raise with light hands/draws has also become more popular.

I think what happens on this forum is we get focused on lines. Some months back the Way Ahead/Waybehind line was quite popular; that got overused as well.

The way to avoid this type of thing is to be opponent aware and adjust accordingly. Which seems like an extrodinarily obvious statement. But with all the multi-tabling we do, it seems that many of us are just interested in default lines and fall into the default mode way too often.

I have recently dropped a table back to three... just because I noticed in my play, that I was doing too many default lines in situations where they were not apporpriate for the particular opponent.

PA HUD is a great thing, your powers of observation are a great thing. Work on using them. To develope and get used to using this skill might come at the expense of hands per hour. Each player needs to decide whether a higher BB/100 WR is worth it; in relation to what you are giving up in hands per hour.

I for one feel that I am improving again and feel that increasing my skills will pay more future dividends than playing the extra 70 hands an hour in a mediocre fashion.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

[ QUOTE ]


So, yes, your concern is a good one, but one that is, in my opinion, far more applicable in mid-stakes or higher-stakes games (and also in live rather than online) than in the Party 3/6-type universe in which we reside.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not played Party too hard recently. But at the 5/10 games that I frequent, there are more than enough players who pick up on this stuff. And it is not only the good players, but a lot of the bad ones too.

I think it is one of those moves that attracts attention and done repeatedly in the same session many players notice. Also it eventually shows up on your HUD stats that your opponents view (in the form of a higher fold turn percentage).

I think part of the problem (again I am speaking more to the turn than the river), is that we are conditioned that Checking through on the turn is just terrible. When in fact there are a good chunk of situations where a free card is not that big of a deal. Again the qualities of the opponent should guide you. Against people who either don't checkraise or have a very high winSD after checkraising percentage, I bet fearlessly. However, against others I consider the other options.

Re: Why bet/fold so much?
 

The proper balance between checking and betting the turn, particularly in position with marginal hands that may have outs, is one of the hardest things to achieve in limit hold'em.