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-   -   Really gross overbet push (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=397677)

Bukem_ 12-13-2005 03:56 PM

Really gross overbet push
 
Guy is 70/15, has a big stack. This is 3/6 6 max.

Observed this strange hand. I raise UTG, decent button calls, villain calls in sb. Flop K87 rainbow. check, check, button $50, sb calls, I fold.

Turn 9, sb check calls $100. RIver J, Board now reads K879J. Pot around $350, buton has $400 left, Sb now wakes up and pushes, button folds.

This hand... He makes it 21 UTG, next guy calls, I make it $80 with black kings, Villain calls.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He insta pushes, I have $600 left. I have a very solid image.

Finite_Risk 12-13-2005 04:02 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
Fold - if the guy is 70/15, there will be better spots

Bukem_ 12-13-2005 04:19 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
Fold - if the guy is 70/15, there will be better spots

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, this is the obvious answer, but what is he pushing here?

Makes zero sense.

Percula 12-13-2005 04:33 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, this is the obvious answer, but what is he pushing here?

Makes zero sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has QJ, AQ or two spades, maybe JJ or QQ.

dtbog 12-13-2005 06:44 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
He insta pushes, I have $600 left. I have a very solid image.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not WA/WB.

This is "maybe a little bit ahead or way way behind".

70/15? I say KT.

swolfe 12-13-2005 06:50 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
i don't see how you can call...which makes me think villain wants a fold. so i'd call.

soah 12-13-2005 07:06 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how you can call...which makes me think villain wants a fold. so i'd call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost every legitimate raising hand has nailed this flop... AQ, AJ, AA, QQ, JJ are all hands that Hero would raise with 100% of the time. The fact that he is pushing anyway indicates he isn't too worried about those hands. He could have one of them himself, or he has significant equity against that range (some sort of big draw). I'd fold. At the very very best you are a small favorite, but you could end up with six outs or less.

Bukem_ 12-13-2005 07:14 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how you can call...which makes me think villain wants a fold. so i'd call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my first thought.

[ QUOTE ]


Almost every legitimate raising hand has nailed this flop... AQ, AJ, AA, QQ, JJ are all hands that Hero would raise with 100% of the time. The fact that he is pushing anyway indicates he isn't too worried about those hands. He could have one of them himself, or he has significant equity against that range (some sort of big draw). I'd fold. At the very very best you are a small favorite, but you could end up with six outs or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was pretty much what I ended up with.

Change my hand to AQ, call? What about AK?

What if flop is QJ9, two spades?

Big_Jim 12-13-2005 07:14 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
Fold.

You REALLY think he's bluffing you after you re-raised PF on that board?

Hattifnatt 12-13-2005 07:22 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
I would fold this in 1 sec.

Hattifnatt 12-13-2005 07:24 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how you can call...which makes me think villain wants a fold. so i'd call.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is good reasoning if villian know hero had black kings, but in villians eyes hero can very likely have a set or 2 pair here.

Hattifnatt 12-13-2005 07:25 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
Change my hand to AQ, call? What about AK?


[/ QUOTE ]
AQ = Call, AK = Fold

edge 12-13-2005 07:37 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
Very easy fold. AQ is probably a call, but I expect him to flip QQ/JJ a good amount of the time.

swolfe 12-14-2005 05:47 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
so...?

Bukem_ 12-14-2005 05:57 PM

Re: Really gross overbet push
 
[ QUOTE ]
so...?

[/ QUOTE ]

I folded, then I took 2 buyins off him in the next 20 minutes.

But I really couldn't figure this out at the time.

From watching him later, I saw him do a couple of strange semi bluffs on the turn, but most of the time he just fished for everything, and bet big when he get there.

I think I might even drop AQ, bottom set to this push after seeing him play some more.


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