wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

He and his opponent both had 50k in chips with blinds 200-400/50. Bax raised to 1200 in early position with 9 9, and this guy called in late position. The flop came 5 9 J with 2 spades Bax bets 1500, the guy raises to 4500, Bax reraises to 9k, and the guy calls. The turn is the 3 of spades, and Bax bets 11k. His opponent reraises all in, and Bax has a decision to make for about 30k in chips.

He had only seen the guy get all his chips in one time earlier, and he had turned up the nuts. But he'd also not seen the guy reraise with the nut flush draw when he'd had it 5 other times before...so it was a tough decision. The hands he thought he could beat were AJ with the A and 5 5, but he ended up mucking and living another day.

I think every street could be played differnetly and I think this is a very tough hand...any thoughts?

sheets

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

If he thinks the range of hands that he can possibly be up against is AJ, 55, JJ, then I still don't think it's a fold, as he's beating 11/14 of these hands. This is also a very dry looking board, so if we think AJ is at all possible I don't see why AA isn't. I don't think I'm folding the second nuts here, and I think the only reason that one can argue that such a fold is good is if you have an airtight read.

EDIT: Did a flush get there on the turn? That would make much more sense.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

the day i play poker with 1000 bb's is the day i punch myself in the face. would also help to know suits on flop.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

I don't see this as a tough hand at all with no reads. Bax may be able to provide a very reliable read but short of that, I call the turn here everytime. There's specifically one hand that beats you.

I just can't see folding the turn without a very, very reliable read.

Peace

Goodie

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
the day i play poker with 1000 bb's is the day i punch myself in the face. would also help to know suits on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

its only 120 or so BBs

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the day i play poker with 1000 bb's is the day i punch myself in the face. would also help to know suits on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

its only 120 or so BBs

[/ QUOTE ]

hehe, whoops. ok, the day i fold the 2nd nuts in a draw-ish board in a raised pot with 120 bb's (and antes) is, well, not anytime soon.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

[ QUOTE ]

I just can't see folding the turn without a very, very reliable read.


[/ QUOTE ]

how about "he had only seen this guy get it allin once earlier in the day, and he had the nuts"? This is a very very tough hand against a super tight opponent.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

sorry...a third spade same on the turn..EDITED ORIG POST
YES I KNOW THATS VERY DIFFERENT SORRY SORRY SORRY

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
sorry...a third spade same on the turn..EDITED ORIG POST
YES I KNOW THATS VERY DIFFERENT SORRY SORRY SORRY

[/ QUOTE ]

not very well.

With the 3rd spade coming on the turn, it makes this hand much more interesting. I thought that there still wasn't a flush out and we were folding a set there. whew, i thought i lost my mind. This is a tough hand.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

I think that the flop bet was a tad light, and I stringly consider pushing on the flop as well, pricing out the draws and hoping to get called by AJ, the smooth calling overpairs, or bottom set.

I kind of think I check the turn and see if i can somehow see the river cheaply. yikes. I think I am calling the push too..just not sure.


sheets

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

I take it there are 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the flop and another comes on the turn right?

If there are two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the flop then I hate this:

[ QUOTE ]
the guy raises to 4500, Bax reraises to 9k, and the guy calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

That bet does nothing but juice the pot, giving 4-1 to call, so the flat call doesn't tell him much.

If I'm right and there are 3 spades on the board at the turn, I may check/call to fill up depending on the price.

If Bax hasn't seen the villian play the nutflush draw aggressively then this hand is much harder for him than it is for us, but I don't understand his minraise, unless he was trying to get the villian to come over top of him, but bleh, it really hurt him here.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

wow, i'm certainly getting the clock called on me on this one. What's Bax's image? Pretty aggressive? Could the other guy possibly put him on 3 betting the flush draw on the flop? Which of the flop cards was red? The other guy seemed pretty straightforward, and he hadn't seen him raise w/ the flush draw previously, so all signs sure seem to point towards something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx or black AA-QQ or even 55.
I'm having trouble seeing the guy put Bax on a 3bet flush draw and not 4bet the flop w/ 55. The guy has to have a biggish hand there on the flop to call the 3rd bet, right? Maybe something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] (probably doesn't call preflop) or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to raise and call the flop.

Yuck Yuck Yuck. Though we are getting 2.5:1 and we are only 4:1 to fill up if were wrong. I'm still thinking....

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

Let's take it from the point of view from his opponent.

PFR (very well known, aggressive, tricky player) makes a standard raise and I call in position with XX. The flop comes J95 with two spades. He bets, I raise, he reraises, I call.

Here's the first thing. WOULD he just call here with top set with a board such as this? Would JohnnyBax put in a 3rd bet with a flush draw? He might. Would he with a set? He might. This guy doesn't know. If he's playing tight, it means he likely wants to survive till deep in the tournament a lot more than he'd like to take a shot at building a stack through laggy play. He's going to consider all options. Now if he gives Johnny a 20% chance of having the flush on the turn, is he going to push it in with JJ? I don't think so at all. He's going to push the flop. Same with 55.

I think we have to give him credit for the flush here and fold. Given our reads, it's the most likely thing. He also might have had a straight draw, which would make sense for his raise on the flop.

Remember, Johnny showed a desire to get all the money in on the flop but still wanted action. This guy is not going to put it all in without having that beat.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

I think the opponent knows how strong bax's hand is. I think he is happy with that, and thats why he is pushing here. With a lower set I think he wants a cheaper showdown. I actually like the fold, and there are very few circumstances in which I'd make it... ie i don't think i ever fold this online.

Anyone advocating Checking the Turn on the Bax Hand?
 

I think that if opponent is super tight, he's not exactly the type who is switching gears against the man. He's just looking at the cards.

So what about the turn? How about a CHECK here? Anyone want to join me for that reasoning? Super tight opponents tend to do super tight little things when leading out, even when they have big hands. He may give Johnny just the price he is looking for in order to catch a full house on the river if he has the flush. Let's say opponent has AsJ. Would opponent go all-in here? No, chances are he will give Johnny a better price to see the river. 55 may be an all-in, but probably not from a super-tight with three spades on the board, because Johnny is the type who'd play a flush draw like that too. I say use the super-tight player to your advantage and let him do the work.

Argun

Re: Anyone advocating Checking the Turn on the Bax Hand?
 

I would probably make a much larger (pot-committing) reraise on the flop. As played, I don't really like the turn bet. I would check and try to get a read.

Re: Anyone advocating Checking the Turn on the Bax Hand?
 

I really dislike the under-3 bet and think that's where the problem with the hand is. However, he's probably right to fold after the push - although I would have check/called the turn given the fact that opponent's comparatively likely to have spades.

Re: Anyone advocating Checking the Turn on the Bax Hand?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really dislike the under-3 bet and think that's where the problem with the hand is. However, he's probably right to fold after the push - although I would have check/called the turn given the fact that opponent's comparatively likely to have spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts on the hand are almost exactly the same as yours. The flop 3bet really put him in an ugly spot. I actually dont know if checking turn and risking the chance of another spade hitting the river is worth it either.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

I have a hard time believing a super tight opponent played AsJx this way. Flop action appears to be AsKs or AsQs or JJ. I think I'm beat but probably going to look him up. I completely agree with all that said the size of the 3-bet was entirely too small. I like getting a lot more chips in on the flop here.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time believing a super tight opponent played AsJx this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is an important distinction between an opponent who is super tight and an opponent who is reluctant to commit all his chips on a single hand with deep stacks. The latter tells us that when the money finally goes in he almost certainly has a strong holding, but unless we assume the former as well the range of possible holdings could still be reasonably wide, if that makes sense. Showing up with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and a J is a perfect example of the distinction.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

I think the initial flop bet is poor. The pot is 3500 and Bax only bets 1500, stacks are deeper here than in regular tournaments so he should look to build the pot quicker and bet 3000. Then he can push the flop after a raise or look to cr the turn all-in.

The way the hand was played I really think he should call the flop raise and look to cr the turn all-in. Based on prior play the villain most likely is not on the nfd so it can be a variety of hands that includes sets, top pair, over pair, and bluffs. The pot would 12.5k on the turn so if opponent bets the turn for around 8-9k bax can then cr the turn all-in.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

You make a great point. I reread the original post and nowhere does it suggest opponent is super tight preflop, and that is what I was assuming. The more I reread it, the more it appears that AsJx could be likely, but I still think opponent is stronger than that.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

Well, maybe not since there are plenty of giant donkeys to go around, but still pretty damn big.

Re: Anyone advocating Checking the Turn on the Bax Hand?
 

I think he blew this on the flop. He should have reraised all in. By only minireraising, he GAVE the villian the proper odds to call to his flush draw on a silver platter. I think he needs to make a MUCH larger reraise (PUSH) on the flop. Why give the odds? The only time I make a minireraise is with the near nuts or the nuts on a non-drawing board. second set is not nearly strong enough on this board.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Any spade is a great semi-bluff card, particularly if this guy is cognizant of his image. Do you think he can get paid if a fourth spade hits if he holds AJ with the spade?

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

That flop 3-bet is bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuutal. You have to either flat call or make an actual 3-bet to like 15k.

After the small reraise, just check the turn and try to get to showdown without going broke.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

I agree with MLG, I like the flop bet, but either you just call the raise or make a bigger reraise. I prefer to just call the flop raise and then bet strong a non spade turn and check a spade turn. This way if he has the flush, he can't put you in a pretty strong hand and so his turn bet will be not that big (he may possible even check !!) and you get to see the river card.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

When I originally responded to the post, I was under the impression that there was no flush possible. This is not an easy hand and I'm really not sure at this point whether I'd call or not. It sure looks like Q10 of KQ of spades. I think I fold as well with this new information.

Very tough hand, though.

Peace

Goodie

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Any spade is a great semi-bluff card, particularly if this guy is cognizant of his image. Do you think he can get paid if a fourth spade hits if he holds AJ with the spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah OK, it's a good semibluff if you get to the turn vs. the obvious set and then assume the guy with the set can fold it. That 3 bet is just ugly and there's no way a competent AJ calls it (unless he has that in mind, which is uglier).

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

yea that almost min 3 bet is pretty ugly, i think i like making it 15 or 16k, and pushing the turn. But calling and keeping the pot manage-able sounds ok too.

edit: and the way that the actual hand played out, i think it's probably a fold, but one i'd never be able to make. (Well, i don't think)

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

for the fold to be correct, you have to put your oppenent on a flush draw on the flop. But would a tight player raise on flop with just a flush draw? I don't think so. Most tight players would just call to avoid facing a big reraise and getting shut out of the pot. so if the J being a spade, then I would not fold. however, if J is not a spade, then it is likely that your opponent has AJs, which gave him a flush draw plus top pair, then i would be more worried about a flush on the turn.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

edit: wait, let me rethink this, i cant get my head straight

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

He could also have called trying to bluff Bax off an overpair wo/ a spade, not just a set. Plus he's getting 4:1 he could be calling w/ top pair and hoping to fill up to two pair or trips with those odds. No? Plus if you think he can cold call with AJ don't you think its possible he could be calling with a hand like QT,JT,JK since those hands are almost the same cuz they can all be dominated by an early position raising hand such as AK and AQ... Heck, maybe he was trying to get implied odds with a suited gapper or connecter like T8, thus easily giving him a made flush or semi bluffing the draw. It seems like the reraise accomplished nothing in eliminating hands and he may be forced to make this call since villain's range could still be very large.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

Well, maybe not since there are plenty of giant donkeys to go around, but still pretty damn big.

[/ QUOTE ]

considering he got a very good player to fold middle set, I don't think it would be too donkeyish.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
But he'd also not seen the guy reraise with the nut flush draw when he'd had it 5 other times before...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is critical. What are the chances that this time he decided to get frisky w/ his flush draw? In order for us to be behind here, he has to have exactly JJ. The more I think about it, the more I put him on black QQ-AA.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

Keep in mind, he's only been all-in once, and that was with the nuts. So, does that guy push AA/QQ on the turn here...or call? Either way we're going against something we've seen.

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k
 

That flop and turn play demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of deep stacked poker, something I expect from online tourney experts.

-Jason

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
That turn play demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of deep stacked poker, something I expect from online tourney experts.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I can see a few reasons the turn play is bad, but I am far from a deep stack expert. Care to elaborate?

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

misread post, fixed it

Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 1
 

I bury him after the flop. I dont give anyone chances to draw to hands.