Do we take the free card?
 

Opponent is 55/7/0.9 and 36/53 after 80 hands.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks

Do we take the free card, or do we try to get him to fold whatever he holds? I don't see people fold a pair HU often, but it happens on occasions. Here we're likely to have a ton of outs in case he calls. Two problems with betting. He goes to showdown often, and he may check-raise us.

Also, do you raise QJo UTG in the average 5/10 game?

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

I'd bet here and would also go to showdown with QJo against a 55 vpip guy every time.

I don't play 5/10 but at the lower levels I would never raise QJo UTG

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

it's only 5 handed according to the HH. So he's opening in MP.

that's still a tad loosish, but not heinous.

I'd also bet the turn here. Semibluff the scare card+2nd nuts fd. check behind UI river, but i bet a Q or J.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

I think check though is good. I raise QJo in MP most of the time. I don't raise it UTG 6-handed though.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

bet, i dont think he's going for the checkraise here as no aggression was shown on previous street so he's risking it big time if he is.

I think he's probably scared of the flush, take advantage of this.

I only raise QJo in the CO, so preflop i dont like.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

Check. His flop donk/turn check means he has 9x/6x/5x and wants to pay 2 bets to see showdown instead of 3.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

I check this. I have no problem raising QJo UTG. :/

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

I would check here, i don't see him folding anything better here almost ever. I can't remember one single time when a loosy has donkbet and then check-folded the turn.
Spydog already said all this anyway.

Turn action
 

So I decided to bet. It didn't feel completely right since him betting the flop then checking the turn seems to be him wanting to go to showdown as cheap as possible. Slight chance of him trying something on the flop and now gave up, but not worth it.

Anyway, action went, check, bet, check-raise, call. Now the river brings the 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],
for a board of 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He checks. Now what? I can't really see any reason to bet here. Are there any?

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

I changed my mind. I could go either way.

Krishan

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

Posting blind. He wants to go to showdown and doesn't look like the type of player to ever fold a better hand. He could be doing this with a straight draw that doesn't want to pay two and won't showdown, but I'm not terribly concerned about giving the free card given that's only a part of his range and two of his eight straight outs, if open-ended, and one of three, if gutshot, give you the better hand most of the time.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack.

Flop: Fold. A passive player has led out 3-handed, not heads-up. I doubt we have the best hand and certainly don't want to pay to try and prove it. Even if he has a draw he is apt to be a small favorite. All we have are junky overcards and backdoors on a dangerous board.

Turn: Others have said the obvious. The ace of flushes has hit and he has gone into turtle mode. Unless queen-high is unexpectly the best hand he won't be folding. Take the gift and you can decide about the river when you get there.

Turn checkraise: Fold. Pretty certain that he has the flush. That means 2-4 of your nine outs are dead because he is holding them or they complete a straight flush. Plus there is a nominal 22% chance that one of his spades is the king but given that he seems confident and he coldcalled preflop without AQ the real chance he has the king is probably over 50%.

Another possibility is this is a trick with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and some offsuit mystery card, possibly even an ace. Whatever the second card is you are behind with 0-5 outs and should fold.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I fold UTG, raise from HJ. Is this converter funky or what? If he's UTG, and then two folds, then Button... is in the bathroom?

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent is 55/7/0.9 and 36/53 after 80 hands.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks

Do we take the free card, or do we try to get him to fold whatever he holds? I don't see people fold a pair HU often, but it happens on occasions. Here we're likely to have a ton of outs in case he calls. Two problems with betting. He goes to showdown often, and he may check-raise us.

Also, do you raise QJo UTG in the average 5/10 game?

[/ QUOTE ]

*Grunch*

Bet the turn. He only has to fold 20 % of the time for this to be a break even play, and we have 9 outs to the 2nd nut flush, which should compensate for the number of times we're check-raised in this spot.

Can't answer for 5/10, but I consider QJo a marginal hand here. OK to raise, depending on table conditions and your postflop skills.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check. His flop donk/turn check means he has 9x/6x/5x and wants to pay 2 bets to see showdown instead of 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

I dont think he's folding so after reanalysing the hand i think i may take the free card actually.

He isn't folding so we must improve and i dont see us doing it often enough to call a river bet from him(Say he bets this river 100% to make it easier).

We must fold if we miss and can raise if we hit or call. Say we call.

We have AT MOST 9+6 outs so 15 being about 1 in 3, 30% we will win the pot and 60% we will lose it due to fold.

He'd have to fold 20% of time to make this +EV right? And i dont think he folds 1 in 5...

Also i said we have 15outs, prob have less and i also said he bets the river 100% which he probably doesnt. However i also said he wont fold and he may.

Meh i take the free card.

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I decided to bet. It didn't feel completely right since him betting the flop then checking the turn seems to be him wanting to go to showdown as cheap as possible. Slight chance of him trying something on the flop and now gave up, but not worth it.

Anyway, action went, check, bet, check-raise, call. Now the river brings the 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],
for a board of 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He checks. Now what? I can't really see any reason to bet here. Are there any?

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally baffled, which makes this a check for me.

After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close. His line is very confusing to me.

I can't figure out what this guy would have to play the hand this way. Maybe K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with a 5 or 6?

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]
After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close.

[/ QUOTE ]
It seems close because you think he'll fold this turn one time out of five. I don't think he folds anywhere near that often.

Re: Turn action
 

stellarwind is the only one to mention this so far but...

flop seems like an easy fold to me.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

free card...I foresee a checkraise...

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

First off I raise the flop to set up the free card play. You happened to get a free card that was really free here.

Then I'd bet the turn if I thought I had a decent chance of getting a fold, otherwise I'd take the freebie. Usually I'm betting, you often won't get called if a fourth flush card comes anyway, and if you bet here, you often won't have to pay anything to see a showdown UI anyway if thats any help.

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close.

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It seems close because you think he'll fold this turn one time out of five. I don't think he folds anywhere near that often.

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Fair enough. I just realized I have no idea what 36/53 means in the 1st post, and that may be a sees showdown stat that will affect the turn play.

If we estimate that we have 10 outs and we're behind, we have 21 % equity. So the possibility of a check-raise is the difference, and we check through.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks.

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: Fold. A passive player has led out 3-handed, not heads-up. I doubt we have the best hand and certainly don't want to pay to try and prove it. Even if he has a draw he is apt to be a small favorite. All we have are junky overcards and backdoors on a dangerous board.

[/ QUOTE ]
Passive and passive... He's not aggressive, but I'm not sure I'd consider 55 VPIP and 0.9 AF passive. With a bit of luck his true AF may be even higher given that it's only 80 hands. The opposite can be true as well, but with only 80 hands I'd like to consider him a loose unknown and mine more hands/see him play before I judge him. I agree that he's VERY likely to have something.

As for the call on the flop. The pot is giving us 7:1, we're closing the action with two overcards and two backdoor draws, one which may not be good if it hits. This is still not enough to peel?

[ QUOTE ]

Turn checkraise: Fold. Pretty certain that he has the flush. That means 2-4 of your nine outs are dead because he is holding them or they complete a straight flush. Plus there is a nominal 22% chance that one of his spades is the king but given that he seems confident and he coldcalled preflop without AQ the real chance he has the king is probably over 50%.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not much of a hand reader, I am weak though. I still wouldn't put him on a flush with 90 % certainty after the action so far. He may have the flush, he may not. I have no problem seeing an unknown take this line with two pair or a set. Heck, even a very weirdly played A-high! I agree that flush is the most likely hand, but I wouldn't consider it the only possible hand until I know more about this loose opponent. When we're check-raised at the turn we're getting 7:1 from the pot, and there's quite a few combinations of spades that he can hold. Saying that his chance of holding the K of spades is over 50 % is just plain wrong. This guy is LOOSE. He's the kind of player that cold-calls with any two suited. I'd expect to win very often if the river brings the fourth spade.

All that being said, you're probably right regarding everything. I'm the one lacking experience at the tables.

Oh, and the turn problem could've been avoided if I had done the right thing and checked behind on the turn, which, imo, is a no-brainer.

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I just realized I have no idea what 36/53 means in the 1st post, and that may be a sees showdown stat that will affect the turn play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I must learn to include the meaning of those numbers. It's WSD and W$SD. How often the opponent goes to showdown and how often he wins at showdown.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. He only has to fold 20 % of the time for this to be a break even play

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I assume that "break even" means equally good compared to the alternative play of checking? In that case there is no reason to believe your statement is true. There is no easy way to determine the correctness of a bet based on fold probability.

It is true that if we bet and he folds at least 20% of the time we have at least zero EV. But checking has a positive EV and probably quite a large EV based on our apparent outs and possible best hand with position. We will often win this pot after checking. Can betting earn us even more than that? Maybe, but that's what the whole thread is about. No shortcuts to the answer.

Don't confuse this situation with two other situations where your type of reasoning does apply:

1. You have the effective nut low on the river. If you don't bet you surely lose.

2. Your only reasonable alternative to betting is check-folding and the chance of receiving a free card is nil. If you don't bet you surely lose.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks.

[ QUOTE ]


Just wanted to make sure you know that you are in the hijack this hand.

Krishan

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: Fold. A passive player has led out 3-handed, not heads-up. I doubt we have the best hand and certainly don't want to pay to try and prove it. Even if he has a draw he is apt to be a small favorite. All we have are junky overcards and backdoors on a dangerous board.


[/ QUOTE ]

The passive player most likely has a pair, and we are getting 7:1 immediately, closing the action. If we count our backdoor flushes as 2.5 instead of 3 (because non nut flush, and non perfect 3-card straight), and our overcards as 3.5 (that's fair, no?), then we have 6 outs. This is just enough to call, not to mention that we do have some slight implied odds, and our opponent is passive, so will occasionally give us an extra free cards (as happened here). He his passiveness also helps because he won't punish us as badly when we hit a second best hand as an agressive player would.

Is the flop fold really that easy?

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's WSD and W$SD.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is W$SD over 80 hands more useful than knowing Villain's shoe size?

Villain plays 80 hands, sees maybe 50 flops, takes 18 hands to showdown, and wins 10 of them. Showdown win rate measures the overall consequences of a player's style and thus must converge very slowly. Pots are primarily distributed by luck. W$SD is similar to win rate in this respect.

Contrast that with a stat like PFR% which converges much faster because it directly measures player's decisions instead of the consequences of those decisions.

Re: Turn action
 

Great posts Stellar, I think you're reasoning and thinking here is similar to mine(After my 2nd post when i considered it more and wasn't playing at prima).

I do think its a VERY close Check or bet and on the "battle ground" you can't really factor in everything we have so there isn't a BAD decision to be made(Except fold).

On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK?

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks.



[/ QUOTE ]

Just wanted to make sure you know that you are in the hijack this hand.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]
The converter says its 6 handed when its 5. Annoying.

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's WSD and W$SD.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is W$SD over 80 hands more useful than knowing Villain's shoe size?

Villain plays 80 hands, sees maybe 50 flops, takes 18 hands to showdown, and wins 10 of them. Showdown win rate measures the overall consequences of a player's style and thus must converge very slowly. Pots are primarily distributed by luck. W$SD is similar to win rate in this respect.

Contrast that with a stat like PFR% which converges much faster because it directly measures player's decisions instead of the consequences of those decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't "rely" on WSD and W$SD until I have at least 700+ hands. I guess I just included them out of habit.

Re: Do we take the free card?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is the flop fold really that easy?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't recall saying it was easy. I think it's close but you should fold.

3.5 seems pretty reasonable for the overcard outs.

2.5 is too much for the backdoors. I'd give you 1.5 for the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] but the queen is worth less.

A clean 3-way backdoor straight (KT/T8/87) is worth 1.5 outs, but that assumes that if you turn a straight draw you will be adding four or eight new outs. First off the 87 branch is just a chop so 1/4 out disappears right there. Second there is a risk that our backdoor straight will complete the flush. But the biggest problem is straight draw cards are toxic. If we get our king we add four straight outs, but our 3.5 overcard outs need to be reduced. Really it's not even a call on the turn at 5-1. Similarly an eight would add six outs for the half-chopping double gut, but the 9865 clump doesn't make me feel very good about spiking a pair on the river. He called 1.5 preflop so his board pair is apt to have a nearby kicker for two pair or the straight. The ten is also lame and a seven is completely uncallable.

Note that it doesn't matter if you disagree with my judgment that a turned king cannot be called because the decision is obviously at least close.

Mathematical concept: suppose that it is just barely correct to call the turn if card x comes. That means the EV of calling is just barely positive because folding has zero EV. Then the possibility of turning card x is virtually immaterial when deciding whether to call the flop.

When you decide to pay 1 SB to call the flop you are saying that the hand you will get on the turn will on average be worth at least 1 SB. Getting an off king in our example hand is obviously a very bad result whether you think the turn hand has EV = 0 (turn needs to be folded due to inadequate odds) or EV = 0.1 SB (barely worth calling the turn in your opinion). Either way the king possibility won't make a meaningful contribution to justifying a flop call.

The problems described above drain away much of the EV that you would normally get from picking up a straight draw. So even though you might soldier on after picking up such a draw, it's a salvage operation and there isn't much money in it. I'm not inclined to pay much on the flop to try to create such a draw, meaning I'm going to sharply reduce the number of outs I take for the draw. Saying a backdoor draw is worth an out is a shorthand way of saying it adds the same EV as a real out.

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK?

[/ QUOTE ]
The Button+2 seat, analogous to Cutoff being Button+1. I don't know why it's called that but I like the term because it has an objective meaning, whereas terms like MP and UTG depend on the number of players which makes them inconvenient for discussing first-in preflop play.

Results
 

So I checked behind on the river. He either had something and would call, or he had nothing and my Q-high may be enough to win. My opponent flipped over K3 of clubs and won with K-high.

Re: Turn action
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK?

[/ QUOTE ]
The Button+2 seat, analogous to Cutoff being Button+1. I don't know why it's called that but I like the term because it has an objective meaning, whereas terms like MP and UTG depend on the number of players which makes them inconvenient for discussing first-in preflop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's called that because about two months ago Tommy Angelo named it that in Mid-High Stakes and it has just kind of stuck. Tommy wrote a thread about it - that's where it came from. I think the title of the thread had the word Hi-Jack in it.