($215 custer) strange bubble play
I see you making plays like this a lot with hands like J5o and T2o. Blinds aren't going up for another 8 hands. What are you doing?
PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 7 - 4 players (Converter: PGC) Chip Counts: Button: 4150 Chips SB: 1805 Chips BB: 2175 Chips <font color="red">Hero: 1870 Chips</font> Hero is UTG with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Blinds are 150/300 PreFlop Hero is All-In, <font color="blue">Button folds</font> <font color="blue">SB folds</font>, <font color="green">BB Calls</font> (2 players) FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 3890 Chips ) (2 players) TURN: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 3890 Chips ) (2 players) RIVER: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 3890 Chips ) Final Pot:3890 Chips |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
I don't remember the actual hand, but there are many factors more important to me than my hand or dry ICM #'s. But let's look at those #'s: With L calling ranges from all opponents, EV Diff. is -1.8%. But SNGPT doesn't take into account position. I'm in the BB next hand, the SB after that. Both -EV positions. Sure, I'll be in those same positions the next 2 hands regardless of whether or not I push here, but the chips I'll likely be losing will have less value than if I add 450 to my stack. How much less value, I'm really not sure, but it doesn't seem like it has to be much to make up for -1.8%. So any extenuating factors would turn this into a push in my mind.
Example of extenuating circumstance: The big stack is a calling machine. He's on my left. This will severely hurt the EV of all future pushes, SB pushes in particular. Not only does this make UTG pushes the best (as it will limit Big Stack's calling range), but when I fold here, I am counting on these +EV pushes to keep me in the tournament. The fact that they are less +EV seems to make pushing here a better play, as I have to find some way to gamble my chips. moses |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
[ QUOTE ]
I don't remember the actual hand, but there are many factors more important to me than my hand or dry ICM #'s. But let's look at those #'s: With L calling ranges from all opponents, EV Diff. is -1.8%. But SNGPT doesn't take into account position. I'm in the BB next hand, the SB after that. Both -EV positions. Sure, I'll be in those same positions the next 2 hands regardless of whether or not I push here, but the chips I'll likely be losing will have less value than if I add 450 to my stack. How much less value, I'm really not sure, but it doesn't seem like it has to be much to make up for -1.8%. So any extenuating factors would turn this into a push in my mind. Example of extenuating circumstance: The big stack is a calling machine. He's on my left. This will severely hurt the EV of all future pushes, SB pushes in particular. Not only does this make UTG pushes the best (as it will limit Big Stack's calling range), but when I fold here, I am counting on these +EV pushes to keep me in the tournament. The fact that they are less +EV seems to make pushing here a better play, as I have to find some way to gamble my chips. moses [/ QUOTE ] Uh... yeah. There's all that. But you have T2o with >5BB on the bubble. Kinda makes those other arguments irrelevant. Just chill and await further developments, no? |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
and this would be the reason people call with weak aces and low pp's [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
I dont like the push, but its not thaaat bad. |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
It's not horrendous, but I wouldn't push this very often.
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Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
[ QUOTE ]
I don't remember the actual hand, but there are many factors more important to me than my hand or dry ICM #'s. But let's look at those #'s: With L calling ranges from all opponents, EV Diff. is -1.8%. But SNGPT doesn't take into account position. I'm in the BB next hand, the SB after that. Both -EV positions. Sure, I'll be in those same positions the next 2 hands regardless of whether or not I push here, but the chips I'll likely be losing will have less value than if I add 450 to my stack. How much less value, I'm really not sure, but it doesn't seem like it has to be much to make up for -1.8%. So any extenuating factors would turn this into a push in my mind. Example of extenuating circumstance: The big stack is a calling machine. He's on my left. This will severely hurt the EV of all future pushes, SB pushes in particular. Not only does this make UTG pushes the best (as it will limit Big Stack's calling range), but when I fold here, I am counting on these +EV pushes to keep me in the tournament. The fact that they are less +EV seems to make pushing here a better play, as I have to find some way to gamble my chips. moses [/ QUOTE ] You are wrong, SNGPT do take into account that you are BB the next hand. Try moving to Button and see for yourself. |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
[ QUOTE ]
You are wrong, SNGPT do take into account that you are BB the next hand. Try moving to Button and see for yourself. [/ QUOTE ] Your equity goes up when you move to the button not because it is taking into account that you will be not be the BB the next hand but because there is a greater likelihood you will not get called with only two people to act instead of three. |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
I push this about 0 out of 10 times.
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Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
its not that bad. after this round, you only have ~4 BB left. it is just annoying that some people will call you will Ax (x down to 2)/QJ+/22+, at least at $20+2.[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
[ QUOTE ]
I push this about 0 out of 10 times. [/ QUOTE ] love the avatar. i was thinking why the [censored] does he have a plain green background as his avatar? then that giraffe surprised the [censored] out of me. |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
Check the equity modeling menu. SnGPT does take into account whether you will be in the blinds next hand.
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Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
Yeah, on the test versions. I'm still not utterly convinced by it though!
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Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
ah! apparently my version is very outdated. thanks for the heads up.
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Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
I'd probably push something like T8 here, thoughts on that?
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Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
Open pushing with that stack and those chip counts from that position is going to be correct most of the time, and Custer did a pretty good job explaining why.
I would expect most people to not like it, and many to think it's incorrect. But I do this type of thing regularly, and it's not because I think it's wrong. The problem is that it's very hard to use ICM/SNGPT to figure this out because it's always going to be close when the blinds are this high and you are about ready to pay the BB with the big stack acting before the others. So, a little +EV? a little -EV? That's all you'll be able to crunch out. Given that, I want to get my chips in first in this situation and I don't really care what cards I have. Irieguy |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
[ QUOTE ]
So, a little +EV? a little -EV? That's all you'll be able to crunch out. Given that, I want to get my chips in first in this situation and I don't really care what cards I have. Irieguy [/ QUOTE ] Interesting thoughts. Here's my question: what are you pushing with these stack sizes? Button: 2950 Chips SB: 1705 Chips BB: 2075 Chips Hero (MP): 1870 Chips UTG: 1400 Chips |
Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So, a little +EV? a little -EV? That's all you'll be able to crunch out. Given that, I want to get my chips in first in this situation and I don't really care what cards I have. Irieguy [/ QUOTE ] Interesting thoughts. Here's my question: what are you pushing with these stack sizes? Button: 2950 Chips SB: 1705 Chips BB: 2075 Chips Hero (MP): 1870 Chips UTG: 1400 Chips [/ QUOTE ] With blinds 150/300? If UTG folds I'm open-pushing a pretty wide range. Whether or not I would push 10-high depends an awful lot on the dynamic of the game at that time. It's all about FE, so if I felt like I still had some, I would be willing to wait for the situation to evolve a bit more. Irieguy |
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